Research.LeutholdGroup

We were surprised to see that all differentials ten years and longer are still below their respective 1926-to-date medians, indicating they still have the potential to keep moving towards historical median levels. We expect stocks to outperform bonds going forward.

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Andy Engel revisits our Stock/Bond Performance Differential study which examines rolling stock/bond spreads over various time periods and subsequent asset class returns.  It appears that trends are finally reverting slowly toward the norm.

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There were plenty of interesting facts to be discovered in reading the latest mutual fund flows report from the Investment Company Institute (ICI). The recently released report, which detailed the statistics for September, showed that there were nearly $15 billion of net redemptions from U.S. equity funds for the month. September, by the way, was a month where the S&P 500 rallied to an 8.8% gain.  We have noted in the past that the public is generally a trend following herd that buys into market strength and sells on weakness.

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Stock/bond Risk-reward relationship beginning to return to normal. Back in Q1 2009, performance differential between S&P 500 and 10 year T-bonds was at generational lows. In prior periods of bond superiority, stocks ultimately came soaring back. Expect to see stocks do much better over next 5 years.

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It’s easy to see why equity investors are so down when looking at updates of the long term stock market performance. It’s even more depressing when long term equity returns are compared to bond returns.

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As of the end of Q1, the 20 year total return ACR differential between the S&P 500 and Ten Year Treasuries was negative, and at its lowest reading in 60 years.

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