Election
How It Bodes For Biden
Early evidence suggests the Biden administration and the newly “purple” Senate will resist the pull of the far-left, at least from an economic perspective. Stock investors are cheering... though in light of their current euphoria, they might as well have celebrated a write-in victory for Ralph Nader alongside Green Party control of the Senate.
Inaugurations And The Stock Market
Presidents and the popular press have become obsessed with performance over the “first 100 days” in office. That prompted us to see if there have been any persistent stock market effects related to this 100-day window. There are many ways to slice the data, and the more we sliced it, the fewer the observations.
Don’t Overplay The Election
The lack of a “Blue Wave” doesn’t undermine our belief that a big stock market rotation is underway. The valuation gap between Large Cap Growth and other U.S. (and foreign) market segments is so large that it’s become unsustainable.
Markets & Election—Any Clear Result Will Do
We believe the worst outcome would be a drawn-out, contested presidential election that ends up in the Supreme Court. We review historical market patterns under several election-result scenarios.
Reflation And Election Year Patterns—Not Much To Lean On
· One bright spot in last month’s lackluster market action was that inflation sensitive assets saw impressive relative returns.
Do Health Care Stocks & Elections Mix?
A look at Health Care groups’ historical performance both pre-election and post-election; we identify past trends of leaders and laggards in each period.
Markets & Election—All Risk And No Reward
The upcoming election is likely to have wide-ranging impacts on both monetary and fiscal policies and we expect election risk to overshadow the Fed policy risk for the time being.
Questions Clients Are Asking
Since the Milwaukee poll taken in early October, it appears that optimism has continued to build. This opinion is supported by the kinds of questions we are now fielding from clients.
Bond Market Summary
For the month, the net loss for long T-bonds amounted to a half a point or less. All things considered, I thought it was an impressive performance, even though it took place in the dog days of August.
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