The Leuthold Group was created in 1981 by Steve Leuthold as an independent source of financial research for the institutional marketplace. Today, the team of analysts is led by industry veterans: Doug Ramsey, Chief Investment Officer; James Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist; and Scott Opsal, Director of Research & Equities. The group’s style is disciplined, quantitative, and contrarian; research offerings include commentary on the stock market and the economy, bond market observations, equity strategy insights, overall asset mix tactics, very long-term intrinsic valuation studies, and examination of a wide range of industry-related subject matter of timely interest.
The depth of historical data maintained enables the group to perform long-term studies uncommon at other shops, on or off Wall Street. In addition, the models are backed by the confidence gained from years of testing with real money in the real world. The firm prides itself on being a valued resource with perspectives that are often out of the ordinary.
The Leuthold Group, LLC, is majority employee-owned and independent.
The most important factor from a long-term investment standpoint is the recognition of value, including the identification of overvaluation and undervaluation. Valuation measurement tools, including P/E multiples, dividends, asset factors, and growth rates are, of course, essential in stock analysis. They are equally important in group and sector analysis, and in the study of markets overall.
Eventually, the marketplace adjusts prices downward for overvaluation and upward for undervaluation, but it is often not very efficient and these adjustments can take considerable time.
Besides its inefficiencies, the market is often irrational. That is why technical analysis is a valuable skill for investment professionals. How many times has one sold a "fully priced" stock and then watched it continue to rise in price, doubling multiple more times in a spasm of irrationality? How many times has one bought a "cheap" stock only to see it fall another 30%?
Stock groups, market sectors, and the securities markets themselves demonstrate the same tendencies toward the extremes. While technical analysis has its limits, at times it can greatly enhance investment results.
Since the beginning of market time, there have nearly always been clearly defined phases of market leadership: Emerging Markets and Commodities in the 2000s; Technology in the 1990s; Health Care-related stocks in the late 1980s; Consumer stocks and Bonds in the early and mid-1980s; Energy stocks in the late 1970s; the "Nifty Fifty" in the early 1970s; and Electronics in the early 1960s. Portfolio concentrations in the leadership themes can be very rewarding if one is able to identify the trend and develop positions in the early stages. It can be a horror if one loads up late in the game.
Projecting future areas of investment leadership is an art. It requires imagination and experience; a sense of what trends might attract far-reaching investment based on the existing environment or developing market conditions.
Risk exposure can be reduced if fundamental value recognition tools are added to the process. Trend analysis, using traditional measures and newly developed methods, further reduces the twin risks: 1) being "too early"; or, 2) jumping on board near the end of a leadership phase.
- Perception For The Professional ("The Green Book")is our original research produced for the institutional marketplace. This comprehensive publication includes commentary on financial markets and the economy, presents equity strategies and bond market observations, discusses an overall asset mix structure, and explores other industry-related subject matter of timely interest. This book is produced monthly.
- Paulsen's Perspectives James W. Paulsen, Ph.D., a leading investment strategist whose commentary is widely followed on Wall Street and across the country, presents his market and economic commentary, dissects investment implications of present-day trends, and examines topics currently of interest within the financial industry.
- Inflation Watch provides our current and intermediate-term assessment of the inflation environment and examines data for the CPI and PPI component subsets to gauge how each may be influencing conditions. This publication is distributed via email and posted on the web site after the CPI and PPI are released, typically around mid-month.
- Major Trend Index is a weekly email update on the status of our 130+ factor assessment of stock market risk.
- Chart Of The Week (COTW) is a weekly email distribution, typically issued on Friday, presenting a snapshot view and brief commentary based on market-related data. Topics may include highlighting new developments due to market action, and other items that we think may be constructive or of timely interest.
- Group Watch is a weekly online posting which recaps the week’s best and worst performing equity industry groups.
- BenchMarks is a quarterly presentation of our proprietary “histograms” — graphic representations of historical market data and intrinsic value relationships for a range of benchmark indices. Data includes: Price/Earnings Multiples, Common Stock Yields, Book Value, Stock Market Valuations versus GDP, Interest Rates, Inflation and the Economy, Stock Market Performance, and various measures evaluating Stocks versus Bonds.
- Fund Flow Trends is a quarterly analysis included in the “Green Book” that details the money-flow trends within the mutual fund and ETF industries. It covers the broad categories of equity and bond (both U.S. and foreign-focus), as well as hybrid mutual funds.
- Interim Memos are emailed to clients when market action or changes in our indicators warrant comment outside of our usual monthly publication schedule.
Equity Group Analysis
We seek to identify equity leadership trends, both on a domestic basis and globally. Our models employ fundamental, technical, and quantitative factors.
Our domestic Group Selection (GS) Scores rank 110 industries derived from the S&P/MSCI industry and sub-industry GICS levels. Our universe is composed of the largest 3,000 securities traded on U.S. exchanges (including roughly 400 ADRs).
Distribution of The Leuthold Group Research is highly restricted. Research clients may receive publications in hard copy, via secure website access at www.LeutholdGroup.com, and through FactSet Research Connect.
The Leuthold Group team is a close-knit group of experienced professionals, committed to superior instututional research products and exceptional client service.