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Inflation Watch A mid-month focus on inflation via Traditional Indexes, Commodity Prices, and Labor Costs

Oct 12 2018

Inflation—Another Small Miss

  • Oct 12, 2018

The latest CPI numbers missed market expectations. The problem is not with the actual CPI numbers, but merely the fact that market expectations are still a tad too high. More disconcerting is the cool trend in housing inflation.

 

Jan 07 2013

Inflation Slightly Lower Than Expected

  • Jan 7, 2013

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI fell 0.5% from October to November, lower than expected.

Dec 06 2012

No Big Change — Inflation Remains Moderate

  • Dec 6, 2012

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was essentially flat in October, in line with market expectations. 

Oct 04 2012

Inflation Turned Higher In August

  • Oct 4, 2012

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI jumped 0.6% in August, matching the market consensus.

Sep 07 2012

CPI Inflation Dips Lower, But Concerns About Food & Energy Prices Remain

  • Sep 7, 2012

Inflation measures mostly lower than expected in July.

 

Aug 07 2012

Inflation Pressures Trend Lower

  • Aug 7, 2012

Inflation measures mostly matched expectations in June.

 

Jun 06 2012

Near Term Inflation Presures Receding

  • Jun 6, 2012

Most inflation measures matched expectations in April.

 

Apr 04 2012

Evidence of Near Term Commodity Inflation Building

  • Apr 4, 2012

A month and a half ago we became concerned with rising commodity prices, which has been especially obvious over one and three month time horizons. Those trends continued in March, with several of the commodity indices now showing double digit price increases from three months ago.

Apr 04 2012

Start Of A New Bond Bear Market Or Not, There Is No Need To Rush

  • Apr 4, 2012

Whether it’s the start of a new bond bear market or not, there’s no need to rush... and why shorting bonds may not be the best idea, even during a bond bear market.

 

Feb 05 2012

Reported Inflation Should Be Muted In 2012

  • Feb 5, 2012

For 2012, the reported CPI is expected to slip down to the +2% area (although items like lunches, transportation, parking and food may continue rising at close to a 10% rate).

Feb 05 2012

Falling Commodity Prices Tamping Down Inflation Pressures

  • Feb 5, 2012

Through November, the CPI is now up 3.4% from year ago levels, while the PPI is up 5.7%.

Dec 06 2011

Very Little Price Pressure At Present

  • Dec 6, 2011

It is very difficult to find signs of accelerating inflation in today’s markets.

Nov 05 2011

Inflation Pressures Waning

  • Nov 5, 2011

While our 2011 year end inflation projections are still well above the 2010 year end levels, it seems that both the CPI and PPI may have already peaked for the year.

Sep 04 2011

Six Month Readings Look More Favorable Than Twelve Month Readings

  • Sep 4, 2011

In all of the primary inflation measures monitored in our Inflation Watch publication, the six month rates of change moved lower in July. For the most part, the twelve month readings have continued to rise. This action is likely pointing to diminishing inflation pressures for the months ahead.

Aug 04 2011

Jumped The Gun With Boost To PPI Estimate

  • Aug 4, 2011

The July reports showed that both PPI and CPI edged downward in June from May readings.

Jul 05 2011

Inflation Pressures Continuing To Heat Up...Boosted Year End Projections

  • Jul 5, 2011

CPI rose 0.5% in May (before seasonal adjustments), down from April’s +0.6% monthly increase.

 

Jun 05 2011

Despite Falling Commodity Prices, Inflation Still Expected To Accelerate In 2011

  • Jun 5, 2011

Latest PPI month/month increase was +1.2%, however the latest report is a measure of inflation from mid March through mid April and does not include the impact of the plunge in commodity prices.

May 04 2011

Inflation Pressures Becoming More Evident

  • May 4, 2011

All three PPI measures have their six month rates of  change well above the 12 month rates, so the trend points toward even higher inflation ahead.

 

Apr 05 2011

Inflation Pressures Becoming More Evident

  • Apr 5, 2011

All three PPI measures have their 6 month rates of  change well above the 12 month rates, so the trend points toward even higher inflation ahead.

 

Mar 04 2011

Look Out For Rising Inflation This Year

  • Mar 4, 2011

Given global economic recovery, and Fed action meant to stimulate the U.S. economy, we expect that inflation fires will heat up significantly in 2011.

Feb 04 2011

Inflation Acceleration In 2011

  • Feb 4, 2011

By keeping interest rates at extreme lows and printing money, the Fed is trying to reflate, convincing consumers to spend, not save and investors to buy riskier assets.

Jan 05 2011

Inflation Acceleration In 2011

  • Jan 5, 2011

Commodities are on fire, and it’s not just because of the weaker dollar. Commodity prices are signaling significant pass-through inflation pressures building.

Dec 04 2010

Inflation Acceleration In 2011

  • Dec 4, 2010

We see the perceived deflation threat developing into commodity-based inflationary fears.

 

Nov 04 2010

Commodity Diffusion Index Signaling Inflation Pressures Building

  • Nov 4, 2010

Commodity Diffusion Index pointing toward higher inflation. While weak dollar has helped push commodity prices higher, a Diffusion Index converted to a strong currency like the Swiss Franc also is at very high inflationary levels.

 

Nov 04 2010

Inflation Acceleration Likely In 2011

  • Nov 4, 2010

Commodity Diffusion Index pointing toward higher inflation.

Oct 05 2010

Mild Inflation, But No Deflation In 2010

  • Oct 5, 2010

We are maintaining our 2010 CPI estimate of +1.2%. (Core CPI +0.9%.)

Sep 03 2010

Mild Inflation, But No Deflation In 2010

  • Sep 3, 2010

It may feel like a deflationary environment, but the CPI is not likely to end 2010 with a twelve month deflationary reading.

Aug 03 2010

Year End Twelve Month CPI Deflation Reading Unlikely

  • Aug 3, 2010

Looking ahead to 2011, we are keeping a close eye on Housing, Food and Wages, which all could be bottoming out.

Jul 06 2010

Inflation Tame

  • Jul 6, 2010

Looking ahead to 2011, we are keeping a close eye on Housing, Food and Wages, which all could be bottoming out.

Jun 03 2010

CPI Tame For Now, 2011?

  • Jun 3, 2010

Gently rising CPI inflation at present can be best characterized as normal business cycle inflation.

May 04 2010

Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010

  • May 4, 2010

The greatest danger in late 2010 and 2011 is monetary debasement inflation, not demand based inflation.

Apr 05 2010

Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010

  • Apr 5, 2010

The greatest danger in late 2010 and 2011 is monetary debasement inflation, not demand based inflation.

Mar 02 2010

Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010

  • Mar 2, 2010

Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010 (+3.2%); Higher PPI Inflation (+6.0%)

Feb 02 2010

Weak Dollar Could Continue To Contribute To Higher Commodity Prices

  • Feb 2, 2010

U.S. commodity prices are again trending higher, like they did in 2002, as the U.S. economy recovered. The weak U.S. dollar helped, and recent rally might not last.

 

Jan 04 2010

Leuthold Commodity Diffusion Index Remains Negative

  • Jan 4, 2010

Like they did in 2002, as the U.S. economy recovered, U.S. commodity prices are again trending higher.

 

Dec 05 2009

Commodity Diffusion Index Now Signaling Rising Inflation

  • Dec 5, 2009

Commodity Diffusion Index hit 75%, an indication of rising inflation pressures. Moves above 70% in this inflation gauge have served as a pretty good sell signal for stocks.

Dec 05 2009

Mild Inflation Next Twelve Months

  • Dec 5, 2009

This transition from deflation to mild inflation will be a “numbers game” as late 2009 readings are compared against late 2008’s strong deflationary readings, driving the twelve month rate up.

 

Nov 04 2009

Mild Inflation Next Twelve Months

  • Nov 4, 2009

By year end 2009, we expect the twelve month PPI to be back up in mildly inflationary territory.

Oct 05 2009

Mild Deflation Short Term… Mild Inflation Next Twelve Months

  • Oct 5, 2009

This transition from deflation to mild inflation will be a “numbers game,” as 2009 readings are compared against 2008’s second half deflation, driving current twelve month readings up

Sep 04 2009

Mild Deflation Short Term… Mild Inflation Next Twelve Months

  • Sep 4, 2009

The greatest danger in late 2010 and 2011 is monetary debasement inflation, not demand based inflation. Trillion dollar deficits (or higher) may be acceptable shorter term (2009), but unless our government and politicians provide strong evidence of fiscal responsibility, the dollar’s respectability could be undermined, with foreign lenders and investors going elsewhere.