Skip to content

Inflation Watch A mid-month focus on inflation via Traditional Indexes, Commodity Prices, and Labor Costs

Apr 10 2024

Inflation—Overreacting Much?

  • Apr 10, 2024

CPI readings were a touch above estimates again in March. The actual data surprises are not nearly as dramatic as the market reactions, which have been almost entirely driven by sentiment swings.


Mar 12 2024

Inflation: A Bumpy Road To 2%

  • Mar 12, 2024

Like January, February’s CPI figures were hotter than expected. Stickier inflation data, spiking breakeven rates, and fewer Fed cuts haven’t scared the equity market one bit.

Feb 13 2024

Inflation—Above Expectations Again

  • Feb 13, 2024

CPI readings were a tad hotter than estimates again in January. Given the speed of disinflation that’s currently priced in by the market, we are probably headed toward a period of expectation adjustment.


Jan 12 2024

Inflation—Stickier Than Expected

  • Jan 12, 2024

CPI readings for December were a tad hotter than estimates. The path forward is unlikely to be a straight line down. Watch geopolitics closely, as it could drive prices in either direction very quickly.

Dec 12 2023

Inflation: What, Me Worry?

  • Dec 12, 2023

This looks like a market that has made up its mind about inflation and a coming soft landing. Inflation and Economic Surprises in 2023 have helped form this rosy outlook.

Nov 14 2023

Inflation—Softer But Not All Clear

  • Nov 14, 2023

CPI readings for October were softer than estimates. We caution against linearly extrapolating the current disinflation trend. Our scorecard update shows an uptick in inflation pressures.

Oct 12 2023

Inflation: Higher Rates Help Fed

  • Oct 12, 2023

CPI readings for September leaned hotter for the headline numbers. Our Inflation Scorecard hints at building price pressures. The Fed’s tightening campaign is currently on hold with the rise in longer term rates.

Sep 13 2023

Inflation Pressures Start To Build Again

  • Sep 13, 2023

Latest numbers are largely in line with expectations. Higher wages boost the wealth effect, which supports the economy, which also means inflation and rates are likely to stay higher for longer. The latest update of our inflation scorecard shows inflation pressures are starting to build again.

Aug 10 2023

Inflation—Outlook More Muddled Now

  • Aug 10, 2023

Latest numbers are in line with expectations. There are several indicators that start to paint a more muddled picture on inflation going forward. The latest update of our inflation scorecard shows a Neutral reading of 50.


Jul 13 2023

Inflation—Not A No Brainer Going Forward

  • Jul 13, 2023

Latest numbers are below expectations. Various leading indicators point to softer CPI prints ahead. The prevailing soft-landing narrative underestimates the chances of inflation staying higher than what is acceptable to the Fed.

Jun 13 2023

Inflation: Looks Like Late Innings

  • Jun 13, 2023

CPI readings for May were pretty much in-line with consensus estimates. Trends continue to play out as if we’re in the last few innings of rapid YOY price increases. Inflation and a deflating asset bubble have led to atrocious real returns across all asset classes.


May 11 2023

Inflation Supports A Fed Pause

  • May 11, 2023

Latest numbers support a Fed pause. We believe the 25 bps rate hike in May was the last one of the current tightening cycle. Our Scorecard suggests that the disinflationary force has the upper hand and the impact of credit tightening has yet to show up.


Apr 12 2023

Inflation—A Tad Weaker But Picture Still Muddled

  • Apr 12, 2023

Latest numbers are unlikely to impact the Fed’s upcoming rate hike decision in May. The China reopening theme is holding up but the inflationary impulse is still missing. Our Scorecard suggests that the disinflationary force is getting a bit stronger, but the overall inflation picture remains quite muddled.

Mar 14 2023

Inflation: Bank Run Edition

  • Mar 14, 2023

CPI readings for February were in-line with consensus estimates. Attention has been and will continue to be focused on banks and credit markets for investors and the Fed in the coming weeks. The Shelter Index made a fresh YOY high despite almost a year of declining YOY rent prices.

Feb 15 2023

Inflation Picture Is More Muddled

  • Feb 15, 2023

Both the headline and Core CPI were largely in line with expectations. The dollar’s recent weakness has served to support higher inflation as well as easier financial conditions. Our Scorecard suggests that the possibility of inflation staying persistently high is increasing.

Jan 12 2023

Inflation- In Line But Sticky

  • Jan 12, 2023

Both the headline and Core CPI were in line with expectations.
Sticky ex-Shelter CPI has rolled over and EM inflation surprises are negative now.
Disinflation remains the dominant theme but some inflationary pressure can be quite sticky.


Dec 14 2022

Inflation—Giving Way To Recession Concerns

  • Dec 14, 2022

Both the headline and Core CPI were weaker than expected. Wealth effect and employment indicators also suggest lower inflation. Inflation pressure should ease further as recession becomes the dominant concern.

Nov 10 2022

Inflation: Sigh Of Relief

  • Nov 10, 2022

Lower than expected CPI figures give the Fed an opportunity to ease the pace of tightening. Markets, probably bracing for yet another higher than expected reading, shoot higher. Our Scorecard sees inflation’s downward trajectory continuing.

Oct 13 2022

Inflation Should Ease Fairly Soon

  • Oct 13, 2022

Both the headline and Core CPI are a tad hotter than expected. While shelter contributed the bulk of the upside surprise, it’s set to slow in the coming months. Our Scorecard indicates that inflation pressure should begin to ease a bit fairly soon.

Sep 13 2022

Inflation: Fever Not Broken

  • Sep 13, 2022

The CPI figures were hotter than expected and point to more Fed intervention. Barring a 2020 collapse in the price index, year-over-year figures are going to remain high for quite some time.