Skip to content

Inflation Watch A mid-month focus on inflation via Traditional Indexes, Commodity Prices, and Labor Costs

May 11 2023

Inflation Supports A Fed Pause

  • May 11, 2023

Latest numbers support a Fed pause. We believe the 25 bps rate hike in May was the last one of the current tightening cycle. Our Scorecard suggests that the disinflationary force has the upper hand and the impact of credit tightening has yet to show up.


Apr 12 2023

Inflation—A Tad Weaker But Picture Still Muddled

  • Apr 12, 2023

Latest numbers are unlikely to impact the Fed’s upcoming rate hike decision in May. The China reopening theme is holding up but the inflationary impulse is still missing. Our Scorecard suggests that the disinflationary force is getting a bit stronger, but the overall inflation picture remains quite muddled.

Mar 14 2023

Inflation: Bank Run Edition

  • Mar 14, 2023

CPI readings for February were in-line with consensus estimates. Attention has been and will continue to be focused on banks and credit markets for investors and the Fed in the coming weeks. The Shelter Index made a fresh YOY high despite almost a year of declining YOY rent prices.

Feb 15 2023

Inflation Picture Is More Muddled

  • Feb 15, 2023

Both the headline and Core CPI were largely in line with expectations. The dollar’s recent weakness has served to support higher inflation as well as easier financial conditions. Our Scorecard suggests that the possibility of inflation staying persistently high is increasing.

Jan 12 2023

Inflation- In Line But Sticky

  • Jan 12, 2023

Both the headline and Core CPI were in line with expectations.
Sticky ex-Shelter CPI has rolled over and EM inflation surprises are negative now.
Disinflation remains the dominant theme but some inflationary pressure can be quite sticky.


Dec 14 2022

Inflation—Giving Way To Recession Concerns

  • Dec 14, 2022

Both the headline and Core CPI were weaker than expected. Wealth effect and employment indicators also suggest lower inflation. Inflation pressure should ease further as recession becomes the dominant concern.

Nov 10 2022

Inflation: Sigh Of Relief

  • Nov 10, 2022

Lower than expected CPI figures give the Fed an opportunity to ease the pace of tightening. Markets, probably bracing for yet another higher than expected reading, shoot higher. Our Scorecard sees inflation’s downward trajectory continuing.

Oct 13 2022

Inflation Should Ease Fairly Soon

  • Oct 13, 2022

Both the headline and Core CPI are a tad hotter than expected. While shelter contributed the bulk of the upside surprise, it’s set to slow in the coming months. Our Scorecard indicates that inflation pressure should begin to ease a bit fairly soon.

Sep 13 2022

Inflation: Fever Not Broken

  • Sep 13, 2022

The CPI figures were hotter than expected and point to more Fed intervention. Barring a 2020 collapse in the price index, year-over-year figures are going to remain high for quite some time.  

Aug 10 2022

More Signs Of Peak Inflation

  • Aug 10, 2022

Both the headline and core CPI are better (lower) than expected. We see more signs of peak inflation as oil prices, supply chain issues, wage pressure and capacity utilization start to moderate.

Jul 14 2022

Inflation—Keep An Eye On Oil

  • Jul 14, 2022

While the non-seasonally adjusted headline CPI  made a new cycle high with a 9.1% year/year print, which is also the highest since 1981, the Core CPI continues to ease. 

Jun 10 2022

Inflation: Hot And Dangerous

  • Jun 10, 2022

The CPI figures were hotter than expected and point to more Fed intervention. The most careful consumers and lower-income households are getting slammed in categories of spending we would classify as unavoidable.

May 12 2022

Inflation Still Bad But Base Effect Helped

  • May 12, 2022

The CPI numbers were hotter than expected. Our Scorecard still suggests cost-push inflation continues to have an upper hand in driving inflation higher, an unfavorable scenario for risky assets.


Apr 13 2022

Peak Inflation=Peak Rate Hike Pricing (Redux)

  • Apr 13, 2022

The CPI numbers are largely in line. Our Scorecard still suggests high inflation pressure for now, but there are indications that inflation has probably reached a medium-term peak and the pricing for Fed rate hikes will likely come down.


Mar 10 2022

Inflation—Russia Ups Inflation Worries

  • Mar 10, 2022

Another month of contemporary record highs for both headline and core inflation readings…and this data does not include the bulk of the oil surge. A surprise boost in commodity prices from the Russian invasion of Ukraine makes Fed Policy an even more delicate balancing act.

Feb 11 2022

Peak Inflation=Peak Rate Hike Pricing

  • Feb 11, 2022

The CPI numbers surpassed already-high expectations. There are reasons to believe inflation has probably peaked and the pricing for Fed rate hikes will likely come down.


Jan 13 2022

Inflation—Broad-Based & Less Transitory

  • Jan 13, 2022

The CPI numbers suggest inflation is broad-based and less transitory than expected. Our Scorecard starts to tilt a bit toward a cost-push inflation regime, caution is warranted. Watch the yield curve closely.


Dec 10 2021

Inflation—Alarms Ring At The Fed

  • Dec 10, 2021

October and November’s readings both signal that monetary stimulus is now doing more harm than good. The Fed policy pivot from supporting the labor market to fighting inflation has begun. Gains in consumer prices have resulted in a headline CPI value not expected until the middle of 2024 under the pre-pandemic trend.


Nov 11 2021

Inflation—Looking Less “Transitory”

  • Nov 11, 2021

The CPI numbers were well above market estimates. The futures market quickly moved on to price in a Fed hike in June 2022. Inflation will persist for a while longer but we refrain from extrapolating the current trajectory too far into the future.

Oct 14 2021

Inflation - All Clear To Taper

  • Oct 14, 2021

The CPI numbers are slightly above market estimates. 
These numbers gave the Fed the “all clear” to taper.
Scorecard still points to higher inflation.