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Inflation Watch A mid-month focus on inflation via Traditional Indexes, Commodity Prices, and Labor Costs

Aug 13 2018

Inflation—Another Yawner

  • Aug 13, 2018

The year-over-year headline number was in line with market expectations. Inflation has taken a back seat to trade war and the market seems complacent about the potential impact of trade war. Trump is right to talk down the dollar as a stronger dollar is disinflationary.

 

Jul 12 2018

Inflation—Largely In Line

  • Jul 12, 2018

The year-over-year headline number was in line with market expectations but the month-over-month increase missed market consensus (0.1% vs. 0.2% expected). All else being equal, there is a good chance CPI might have peaked for 2018. A stronger dollar is disinflationary while the short term impact of tariffs is higher import prices.

 

Jun 12 2018

Inflation—No Surprises Here

  • Jun 12, 2018

Headline and Core CPI figures hit estimates right on the nose in May, continuing the trend of modest but not outrageous price increases. Energy prices have boosted headline CPI while core CPI continues to be driven by services. With both of the Fed’s mandates pretty much accomplished, appreciate this rare window of time.

 

May 10 2018

Inflation—A Small Miss

  • May 10, 2018

We have seen a string of in-line/slightly subpar inflation numbers (including wages) both here in the US and overseas. Two countervailing market forces are at work too: a resurgent dollar and higher oil/commodities prices. Financial conditions would tighten quite a bit if both the dollar and the real yields are up significantly.

 

Apr 12 2018

Inflation—No Break-out Yet

  • Apr 12, 2018

Despite the rare decline in the monthly reading, overall inflation trends are positive and in-line with expectations. A break-out on the upside has not happened yet. Inflation break-even rates are also well within the recent range. The overall picture for inflation is positive but uncertainties are higher.

Mar 14 2018

Inflation—Everything In Line

  • Mar 14, 2018

The latest headline and core numbers are in-line with expectations. The breakeven rate retreated from the resistance level but the yield curve flattened again. Despite the overall mixed bag of macro data, there are more positive signs for inflation.We have been recommending patience when it comes to inflation because overall inflation trend is still pretty well contained.

Feb 14 2018

Inflation—Suddenly Relevant

  • Feb 14, 2018

The headline and Core CPI numbers for January both came in hotter than expected. Despite the resurrected interest and concerns about inflation we still haven’t caught inflation fever. Because of the narrative (correct or not) look for increased volatility surrounding inflation announcements.

 

Jan 16 2018

Inflation—A Small Upside Surprise

  • Jan 16, 2018

The latest Core CPI number beat expectations but the yield curve flattened. The market shows more conviction about the Fed’s rate hikes than longer term inflation. We recommend patience and we don’t believe missing out on the first few months of higher inflation will cost us dearly.

 

Dec 14 2017

Inflation-As Flat As The Yield Curve

  • Dec 14, 2017

The latest Core CPI number disappointed again. The divergence between inflation break-evens and the yield curve is puzzling. Given the lack of inflationary pressure and the Fed’s projected rate path, it would not surprise us to see a flatter curve without the help of fiscal stimulus in the next few months.

 

Nov 16 2017

Inflation-Yield Curve Too Flat

  • Nov 16, 2017

The latest CPI numbers are in-line with expectations. The divergence between inflation break-evens and the yield curve is worth close monitoring. Given that the global recovery is still intact, we don’t think the current inflation picture justifies the flatness of the yield curve.

 

Oct 13 2017

Inflation - Goldilocks Still Intact

  • Oct 13, 2017

The latest CPI numbers missed expectations but we consider it a passable reading.

Sep 15 2017

Inflation-First Upside Surprise In Six Months

  • Sep 15, 2017

While still too early to call an upturn in inflation, we believe at least expectations are perhaps low enough to make the odds in favor of upside surprises in the near term. We don’t think one small beat on the CPI is likely to turn the Fed more hawkish at the upcoming September FOMC meeting.

Aug 11 2017

CPI Weakness Is Broad-Based

  • Aug 11, 2017

The CPI numbers have disappointed five months in a row. The real bad news for inflation hawks is that the weakness in core CPI is broad-based. There is hope for inflation to stem its recent weakening trend soon as the Chinese CPI has already stabilized and started to turn up.

 

Jul 14 2017

Inflation Slip Sliding Away

  • Jul 14, 2017

Temporary and transitory? The CPI numbers have come in below estimates four months in a row.

 

Jun 15 2017

Inflation Disappoints Again

  • Jun 15, 2017

The CPI numbers have disappointed three months in a row. Weak commodity prices do not inspire higher inflation expectations. The global scope of inflation deceleration adds more weight to the recent soft readings. However, lower bond yields relative to nominal growth rate is inflationary and buffers the impact of weak inflation and rate hikes.

 

May 12 2017

Inflation Subpar Again

  • May 12, 2017

The latest CPI numbers are slightly weaker than expected. We think expectations for higher inflation are still on the high side. The global scope of inflation deceleration adds more weight to the recent soft readings. Patience is the right approach for the reflation trade at this point.

 

Apr 19 2017

Inflation-Weaker Sooner Than Expected

  • Apr 19, 2017

The latest CPI is weaker and the softness was sooner than we expected.  More alarming is the recent broad-based deterioration in economic data.  Lower inflation expectations have flattened the yield curve recently, which hurt Financial stocks. We believe inflation has likely peaked for the time being and patience is the right approach for the reflation trade at this point.

 

Mar 16 2017

A Dovish Hike--Positive For Inflation

  • Mar 16, 2017

The dovish rate hike is a positive for inflation and credit. A hawkish message right now would have been quite detrimental and self-defeating in terms of realizing two more hikes later this year. We believe achieving sustained 2-3% inflation could be harder than most people expect going forward. Overall, we are encouraged by the dovish hike but we think the real test for inflation is when the base effect starts to wane.

 

Feb 15 2017

Inflation-All About That Base

  • Feb 15, 2017

CPI numbers were strong and better than expected. A big part of the recent upturn in inflation has to do with the much lower base from a year ago. We are seeing upside inflation surprises on a global basis but wage inflation is still disappointing. We are encouraged by the general uptrend in inflation data but we think the real test comes after the positive base effect subsides.

 

Jan 19 2017

Deflationary Fears Decrease

  • Jan 19, 2017

CPI figures for December matched consensus estimates.  The Federal Reserve should be pleased to see the modest uptrend in prices.  Sustained price inflation still faces a number headwinds including: resource slack, a strong Dollar and a weakening Yuan. Energy prices saw the largest gains in 2016 after a brutal 2015. Within the Core CPI, medical care experienced notable gains.

 

Dec 16 2016

Encouraged...But Not Counting Chickens Yet

  • Dec 16, 2016

CPI numbers were largely in line. There are encouraging signs that inflation is turning on a global basis. The path to sustained higher inflation is not going to be a smooth one and too much enthusiasm can prematurely end this reflation theme. We are encouraged by the general uptrend in inflation and inflation expectations but certainly do not want to take higher inflation as a given.

 

Nov 18 2016

Higher Inflation Not Imminent

  • Nov 18, 2016

· Headline CPI was in line but Core CPI missed.

The powerful prospect of a huge fiscal stimulus, a substantial tax cut and meaningful deregulation stoked hopes for higher growth and inflation. The Trump-induced reflation trade is still considered risk positive.  The market is putting a lot of faith in Trump’s new policy package but its actual impact on the economy remains to be seen.

 

Oct 18 2016

No Imminent Threat Of Higher Inflation

  • Oct 18, 2016

Headline CPI was in line but Core CPI missed.  The current reading still fits the overall “Goldilocks” inflation backdrop and should be considered favorable for the risk rally. The reason behind the recent rise in inflation expectations was the market’s perception of a policy shift away from monetary easing towards fiscal easing.

 

Sep 20 2016

Inflation-No Impact On Policy Decisions

  • Sep 20, 2016

Inflation is slightly stronger than expected but has no impact on policy decisions. Right now, both the market and the data are telling the Fed to put the rate hike on hold. If the Fed decides to pass in September, there is a very good chance that the Fed might not be able to hike at all this year.

 

Aug 24 2016

Inflation-Keeping The Fed On Hold

  • Aug 24, 2016

Inflation is weak in July but the rebound in oil prices, the renewed weakness in the dollar and the strength in Chinese Yuan are all positive for inflation expectations in the near term. The disinflationary headwinds from outside of the U.S. are only getting stronger, not weaker. It’s hard to disagree with the market’s low rate hike expectations.

 

Jul 18 2016

Inflation-A Slow Burning Fuse

  • Jul 18, 2016

The latest CPI reading is positive for the overall risk rally. We continue to recommend a more patient approach towards inflation. The key market-based drivers of inflation have turned negative. But the recent key economic numbers have mostly exceeded expectations.

 

Jun 17 2016

Inflation Remains Largely In Line With Expectations

  • Jun 17, 2016

The latest jobs report disappointed but we think it’s a short term aberration as other data still point to a healthy job market. Some of the key market-based inflation drivers, however, have reversed course a bit in the last couple weeks. Patience is still the right strategy.

 

May 18 2016

Inflation Exceeded Expectations In April

  • May 18, 2016

Inflation exceeded expectations in April. The more durable inflation measures such as wage inflation are also improving. We characterize the recent improvement in inflation as a relief from the threat of deflation but still quite far from being a catalyst for run-away inflation.

 

Apr 15 2016

Inflation-Patience Recommended

  • Apr 15, 2016

Inflation missed expectations in March.  The three key inflation drivers this year - oil, the Dollar and the Chinese yuan, are all going in the right direction.  The risk of being too early on the inflation call far outweighs the risk of being too late.  Patience is still recommended.

 

Mar 23 2016

Inflation Modestly Exceeds Expectations

  • Mar 23, 2016

Inflation met or modestly exceeded expectations. The three key drivers for inflation (oil, the Dollar and the Chinese yuan) continued to improve. But we are not rushing to declare victory on disinflation. “Organic” inflation, such as sustained wage inflation, has been very elusive so far.

 

Feb 19 2016

Inflation Surprised To The Upside

  • Feb 19, 2016

Both CPI and PPI surprised to the upside.The three key drivers for inflation (oil, the Dollar and the Chinese yuan) all saw some improvements.  Despite the recent improvements, we are still in no hurry to call the bottom in inflation.  The downturn in the energy and manufacturing industries has wide-reaching effects. Patience and caution are still warranted.

Jan 21 2016

Inflation Lower Than Expected

  • Jan 21, 2016

Inflation was lower than expected in December.  The three key drivers for inflation this year are oil, the Dollar and the Chinese yuan. None of these are helping so far.  We have been avoiding inflation sensitive assets and do not see any reasons to catch the falling knife at this point.

 

Dec 16 2015

Inflation Watch-Remains In Line With Expectations

  • Dec 16, 2015

Inflation was largely in line with expectations in November.  The impact of lower energy prices seems to have lessened as the year-over-year comparison gets better.  We are far from ready to call a return of inflation. The ISM price indexes supported our still cautious view towards inflation.

 

Nov 18 2015

Inflation In Line With Expectations

  • Nov 18, 2015

Inflation met expectations in October.  Overall inflation not under-shooting expectations is likely to give the Fed some comfort when it decides on the rate hike in December. Various wage inflation measures show some promise but we will be patient and wait for confirmation.

Oct 16 2015

Disinflation Is Still Dominant

  • Oct 16, 2015

Inflation met or slightly beat expectations in September.  We are watching the oil prices and the dollar closely for signs that the disinflationary headwind might be dying down.

 

Sep 17 2015

Disinflation Is Here To Stay

  • Sep 17, 2015

Longer term drivers of inflation, such as velocity of money, capacity utilization, wage inflation, all suggest disinflation is here to stay.  It’s still too early to call the bottom in oil prices so we continue to expect weaker producers’ inflation ahead.

 

Aug 20 2015

Inflation - It Will Get Worse

  • Aug 20, 2015

The current inflation numbers are not yet reflective of the recent sell off in oil prices so we expect even weaker inflation going forward.

Jul 20 2015

Inflation—Expecting More Drag From Oil

  • Jul 20, 2015

With the recent weakness in oil prices and the renewed strength of the U.S. dollar, we would not be surprised to see weaker headline numbers in the next few months. The expectations of a rate hike might actually end up pushing the rate hike further out. We are now less sanguine about a pick-up in PPI in the rest of the year.

Jun 22 2015

Inflation—More Patience Please

  • Jun 22, 2015

The overall global inflation picture took a small step back as both developed and emerging countries reported below-consensus inflation numbers. More patience is needed as the picture on the wage inflation front is also mixed. We continue to look for an upturn in the PPI in the rest of the year.

Apr 20 2015

Inflation - Patience Still Needed

  • Apr 20, 2015

The stabilization in energy prices and overall CPI is encouraging. The disappointing inflation picture has prompted swift and dramatic central bank actions around the world this year. We expect limited downside to inflation at producers’ level and we believe an upturn in the PPI is not too far away. Patience is needed.