Research.LeutholdGroup

CPI readings for October were softer than estimates. We caution against linearly extrapolating the current disinflation trend. Our scorecard update shows an uptick in inflation pressures.

• Read more

CPI readings for September leaned hotter for the headline numbers. Our Inflation Scorecard hints at building price pressures. The Fed’s tightening campaign is currently on hold with the rise in longer term rates.

• Read more

Latest numbers are largely in line with expectations. Higher wages boost the wealth effect, which supports the economy, which also means inflation and rates are likely to stay higher for longer. The latest update of our inflation scorecard shows inflation pressures are starting to build again.

• Read more

Latest numbers are in line with expectations. There are several indicators that start to paint a more muddled picture on inflation going forward. The latest update of our inflation scorecard shows a Neutral reading of 50.

• Read more

Latest numbers are below expectations. Various leading indicators point to softer CPI prints ahead. The prevailing soft-landing narrative underestimates the chances of inflation staying higher than what is acceptable to the Fed.

• Read more

CPI readings for May were pretty much in-line with consensus estimates. Trends continue to play out as if we’re in the last few innings of rapid YOY price increases. Inflation and a deflating asset bubble have led to atrocious real returns across all asset classes.

• Read more

Latest numbers support a Fed pause. We believe the 25 bps rate hike in May was the last one of the current tightening cycle. Our Scorecard suggests that the disinflationary force has the upper hand and the impact of credit tightening has yet to show up.

• Read more

Latest numbers are unlikely to impact the Fed’s upcoming rate hike decision in May. The China reopening theme is holding up but the inflationary impulse is still missing. Our Scorecard suggests that the disinflationary force is getting a bit stronger, but the overall inflation picture remains quite muddled.

• Read more

CPI readings for February were in-line with consensus estimates. Attention has been and will continue to be focused on banks and credit markets for investors and the Fed in the coming weeks. The Shelter Index made a fresh YOY high despite almost a year of declining YOY rent prices.

• Read more

Both the headline and Core CPI were largely in line with expectations. The dollar’s recent weakness has served to support higher inflation as well as easier financial conditions. Our Scorecard suggests that the possibility of inflation staying persistently high is increasing.

• Read more

Both the headline and Core CPI were in line with expectations.
Sticky ex-Shelter CPI has rolled over and EM inflation surprises are negative now.
Disinflation remains the dominant theme but some inflationary pressure can be quite sticky.

• Read more

Both the headline and Core CPI were weaker than expected. Wealth effect and employment indicators also suggest lower inflation. Inflation pressure should ease further as recession becomes the dominant concern.

• Read more

Lower than expected CPI figures give the Fed an opportunity to ease the pace of tightening. Markets, probably bracing for yet another higher than expected reading, shoot higher. Our Scorecard sees inflation’s downward trajectory continuing.

• Read more

Both the headline and Core CPI are a tad hotter than expected. While shelter contributed the bulk of the upside surprise, it’s set to slow in the coming months. Our Scorecard indicates that inflation pressure should begin to ease a bit fairly soon.

• Read more

The CPI figures were hotter than expected and point to more Fed intervention. Barring a 2020 collapse in the price index, year-over-year figures are going to remain high for quite some time.  

• Read more

Both the headline and core CPI are better (lower) than expected. We see more signs of peak inflation as oil prices, supply chain issues, wage pressure and capacity utilization start to moderate.

• Read more

While the non-seasonally adjusted headline CPI  made a new cycle high with a 9.1% year/year print, which is also the highest since 1981, the Core CPI continues to ease. 

• Read more

The CPI figures were hotter than expected and point to more Fed intervention. The most careful consumers and lower-income households are getting slammed in categories of spending we would classify as unavoidable.

• Read more

The CPI numbers were hotter than expected. Our Scorecard still suggests cost-push inflation continues to have an upper hand in driving inflation higher, an unfavorable scenario for risky assets.

• Read more

The CPI numbers are largely in line. Our Scorecard still suggests high inflation pressure for now, but there are indications that inflation has probably reached a medium-term peak and the pricing for Fed rate hikes will likely come down.

• Read more