Research.LeutholdGroup

• The latest CPI numbers came in slightly below consensus again.
• Our Inflation Scorecard saw a few signal changes but maintained a modest disinflationary reading.
• The demand-pull side has started to show more inflationary pressure.

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The latest CPI report came in softer than consensus. The impact of tariffs is not there yet. Our Inflation Scorecard maintained a modest disinflationary reading (43) this month.

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April’s cooler than expected CPI figures continued the recent trend of soft readings—welcome news to the Fed. Tariff related price spikes were not pervasive in the first few weeks of the shifting trade policy landscape.

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The latest CPI report came in softer than consensus. The market ignored it. We expect a stagflationary scenario over the near term, but the longer term outlook has tilted materially toward a recession.

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February’s cool CPI figures were a welcome step down from January’s hot readings. Positive market reaction to the news was spotty. Trends that would suggest a cold economy and hot inflation are still in the early stages but uncertainty remains high.

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The latest CPI report came in a tad hotter than consensus. Policies are likely the key driver of economic outcomes, including inflation, and we should get ready for more volatility going forward.

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December’s Core CPI figures we’re cooler than expected. Markets reversed out some of the damage caused by Friday’s hot jobs report. The market is pricing in only one or two Fed cuts in 2025, down dramatically from this fall.

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The latest CPI report was largely in line with consensus. The combination of easy monetary and expansive fiscal policy, from both the U.S. and China, materially raises the risk of higher inflation over the next year.

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The latest CPI report was largely in line with consensus. Our scorecard shows the trend of disinflation has stalled.

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The latest CPI report was a tad higher than consensus. Our scorecard shows the trend of disinflation stays intact.

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August’s Core CPI was a tad hotter than expected, locking in a 25bps cut a week from today. Markets currently forecast 250bps of Fed easing by the end of 2025. We probably won’t see sub-2% inflation rates until the Spring of 2025.

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The latest CPI report was in line with consensus. Our scorecard suggests that the modest disinflationary regime continues.

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The latest CPI report was a tad cooler than consensus. Our scorecard suggests the modest disinflationary regime is likely to persist.

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May’s CPI figures were cooler than expected, breaking a trend of generally hotter than anticipated results. Many inflation data series continue to plateau at rates higher the Fed’s comfort zone.

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The latest CPI report was boring, but no bad surprise is really good news these days. Our scorecard is currently Neutral and it’s likely on the cusp of turning disinflationary over the next few months.

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CPI readings were a touch above estimates again in March. The actual data surprises are not nearly as dramatic as the market reactions, which have been almost entirely driven by sentiment swings.

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Like January, February’s CPI figures were hotter than expected. Stickier inflation data, spiking breakeven rates, and fewer Fed cuts haven’t scared the equity market one bit.

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CPI readings were a tad hotter than estimates again in January. Given the speed of disinflation that’s currently priced in by the market, we are probably headed toward a period of expectation adjustment.

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CPI readings for December were a tad hotter than estimates. The path forward is unlikely to be a straight line down. Watch geopolitics closely, as it could drive prices in either direction very quickly.

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This looks like a market that has made up its mind about inflation and a coming soft landing. Inflation and Economic Surprises in 2023 have helped form this rosy outlook.

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