Value finally performed well during July, turning in its best month of 2018 on a spread basis. While the factor category is still deep in negative territory for the year, almost 85% of its underperformance is coming from the worst quintile outperforming the universe; meaning Value has mostly struggled because of expensive stocks outperforming, not cheap stocks lagging.
While Momentum has worked very well during the last year, the best performance has been concentrated among the most expensive securities within the high Momentum group.
Value can’t catch a break. Even a bounce in oil can’t jumpstart the traditionally value-oriented Energy sector. We’ve been sticking to our late bull-market thesis that Growth will outperform, but as we see signs that gains may be limited (or non-existent) going forward, a shift to Value could be in the making.
In mid-2013 we developed a multi-factor model to select individual REITs, figuring that we could exploit an area of the market that is uncrowded from a factor and quantitative standpoint. The results have been outstanding, with the buy-rated securities outperforming the sell-rated securities by 45% since the model went live.
With the exception of Low Volatility and Profitability, all other factor categories produced positive factor performance in July. The month was eventful, however, as Momentum produced a +4% spread through July 12th, only to give up more than half of that advantage as interest rates rolled back over.