Research.LeutholdGroup

Major Trend Index Negative: Net Equity Exposure 38%

The Major Trend Index remains in Negative territory, with the sole improvement, of late, coming from the Sentiment segment—which is no surprise given recent price action. Other categories continue to paint a bearish picture, with deteriorating monetary conditions, poor market action, and valuations not yet reflecting historical lows. 

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AdvantHedge has performed better than the inverse S&P 500 and the inverse Russell 2000. Markets cascaded lower during the month as hotter than expected inflation reports pushed expectations higher as far as future Fed rate hikes.

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Both the Leuthold Core and Leuthold Global portfolios did a good job mitigating losses during the August selloff thanks to low equity exposure and relative outperformance from the stock holdings.

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AdvantHedge was up 3.5% in August, trailing the inverse S&P 500 (+4.1%), but ahead of the inverse Russell 2000 (+2.1%). It was a tale of two halves for this equity hedge last month.

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Both the Leuthold Core and Leuthold Global portfolios participated in July’s equity rally, but lagged their all-equity benchmarks.

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AdvantHedge was down 10.1% in July, trailing the inverse S&P 500 (-9.2%), but ahead of the inverse Russell 2000 (-10.4%).

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Both the Leuthold Core and Leuthold Global portfolios saw negative performance in June, as the underlying equity portfolios underperformed their benchmarks. Fixed income and gold also sold off.

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AdvantHedge was up 7.5% in June, trailing the inverse S&P 500 (+8.3%), and the inverse Russell 2000 (+8.2%).

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In May the Leuthold Core and Global portfolios both outperformed their benchmarks (which were flat), due to strong performance from their underlying equity strategies.

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AdvantHedge was up 3.1% in May, ahead of the inverse S&P 500 (-0.2%), and the inverse Russell 2000 (-0.2%). Although the overall market ended the month flat, this equity hedge still succeeded in identifying pockets of weakness.

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The Leuthold Core and Global portfolios were down in April, but held up well relative to the selloff in the broad equity market.

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AdvantHedge was up 10.6% in April, ahead of the inverse S&P 500 (+8.7%), and the inverse Russell 2000 (+9.9%). After a brief bounce during the second half of March, the selloff in growth stocks—both profitable and unprofitable—accelerated during April.

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The Leuthold Core and Global portfolios treaded water in March; their equity positions lagged the market move higher, and fixed income continued to trade lower.

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AdvantHedge was down 3.5% in March, slightly leading the inverse S&P 500 (-3.7%), but trailing the inverse Russell 2000 (-1.2%). It was a tale of two halves as the selloff continued through the first half of the month, while the second half saw a rebound led by speculative growth and reopening stocks.

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The Leuthold Core and Global portfolios were both slightly down during February, with successful equity positioning and exposure to gold buffering them from the selloff in the broad equity market. 

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AdvantHedge was up 0.3% in February, trailing the inverse S&P 500 (+3.0%), but ahead of the inverse Russell 2000 (-1.1%). Speculative growth underperformance contributed positive returns, primarily through exposure to the Application Software industry.

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The Leuthold Core and Global portfolios both held up well compared to the broad equity market as speculative growth stocks continued to lead the market lower.

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AdvantHedge was up 8.4% in January, ahead of the inverse S&P 500 (+5.2%), but it trailed the inverse Russell 2000 (+9.6%).

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The Leuthold Core and Global portfolios both performed well in December as markets surged into year-end. Global performed particularly well on a relative basis as the equities had an outstanding month.

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AdvantHedge was down 2.3% in December, ahead of the inverse S&P 500 (-4.5%) and in-line with the inverse Russell 2000 (-2.2%).

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