Research.LeutholdGroup

In April, Leuthold’s Core strategy gained 0.7%, benefiting from positive returns across equities and fixed income despite volatile markets, while the Major Trend Index remains in its bearish zone with net equity exposure at 46-48%. The Select Industries strategy rose 0.6%, outperforming broader indexes by shifting toward defensive, tariff-insulated industries like Data Processing and Gas Utilities. AdvantHedge posted a strong 2.4% gain, capitalizing on tariff-sensitive sectors and earnings disappointments, with an overweight to Industrials and Materials.

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Markets remained volatile in March, with growth stocks facing significant losses, particularly within large-cap sectors. The Core strategy, down just 2.2%, continued to outperform relative to traditional equity options thanks to its defensive positioning. Meanwhile, the Select Industries strategy benefitted from safe-haven sectors like healthcare and precious metals, while AdvantHedge saw a solid 5.9% gain, driven by profitable short positions in overvalued consumer and tech stocks.

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Select Industries was down 4.1% in February, lagging the S&P 500, but in-line with mid and small cap benchmarks.  Homebuilding continued to struggle with buyer affordability and shrinking margins, while growth-oriented groups like Interactive Media and Internet Services sold off amid the rotation out of growth.  Holdings in defensive industries (Health Care, Telecom, Insurance) worked to offset weakness throughout the rest of the portfolio.  The strategy is up 1.9% year-to-date.

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The market continues to hover near new highs as the Major Trend Index holds steady at Neutral, with tactical equity exposure remaining near 60%. January saw strong performance across the Core and Select Industries composites, driven by solid long-short equity and fixed income returns, while AdvantHedge faced some headwinds from underexposure to major growth stocks, but that was partially offset by successful short positions elsewhere. Select Industries benefitted from gains in Internet Services & Infrastructure and Hotels & Leisure, as digitalization and post-pandemic recovery continue to support these sectors.

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Select Industries was down 7% in December as the breakdown in internal breadth provided a significant headwind for our all-cap investment universe.  While the final result was a sizeable lag versus large cap indexes, the strategy was in-line with mid and small cap indexes.

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Select Industries surged 7.3% in November, driven by post-election gains in Financials and small caps. Key moves included new investments in Precious Metals and the launch of a thematic group, DOGI, targeting stocks impacted by regulatory shifts. Portfolio changes remain rooted in data-driven GS Scores, ensuring disciplined, unbiased decision-making.

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October brought mixed results across strategies. Core fell 1.6% as equities and fixed income declined, while Select Industries dropped 1.9%, hurt by earnings misses in sectors like Health Care and Semiconductors. AdvantHedge gained 1.2%, capitalizing on companies with negative earnings surprises.

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The Leuthold Core Fund's Major Trend Index improved to High Neutral due to better economic readings and bullish technical indicators, overriding high valuations and elevated sentiment. As a result, net equity exposure in the Core fund increased to 55%. The Core composite rose 1.0% in September from gains in both fixed income and equity holdings.

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The Major Trend Index has oscillated within the Neutral range throughout 2024, moving back and forth between High Neutral and Neutral earlier on, and more recently between Neutral and Low Neutral.  Standing at Low Neutral today, the exact reading in the MTI within this range is less important than the trend, which has shifted to Neutral and below with recent economic data and weaker equity prices.

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The Major Trend Index further deteriorated during July, going from Neutral down one notch to Low Neutral.  The Technical category - long the positive counterweight to the negative readings within the Valuation, Cyclical, and Sentiment categories – was downgraded as large-cap indexes retreated from their mid-month all-time highs.

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The Core composite was up 0.1% in June. Narrow mega-cap leadership continues to negatively impact our all-cap equity approach on a relative basis, but short positions have performed well, providing strong positive long – short performance for the month and year-to-date.

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The Major Trend Index remains at High Neutral, after improving one notch from Neutral in mid-May.  The primary driver for the upgrade, the Technical category, is also the main threat to the MTI maintaining its slightly positive stance.

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Net equity exposure in the Core strategy is currently 56% - above our typical 50% midpoint as the market has moved higher while the MTI was recently in High Neutral.

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The Core composite gained 2.7% in March with outperformance from the equity positions, both long and short, helping the fund participate in another strong month for equities. 

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The Major Trend Index continues to sit at High Neutral, with strong market action continuing to override concerns among the other indicators (Valuations, Economy, Sentiment).  With the MTI on the positive side of Neutral and market action increasing the value of long positions, current equity exposure now sits at 56%.

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The Core composite gained 1.3% in January. Among the underlying holdings, excellent long-short performance offset negative returns from the fixed income allocation.

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The Core Strategy gained 3.8% in December as both equities and fixed income positions closed out the year with large gains.

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The equity rally during November was strong enough to push the Major Trend Index back into Neutral territory, as the increasingly positive Technical components serve to offset bearish Valuation and Cyclical category readings. 

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The Major Trend Index reading deteriorated to Negative in early October and remained there throughout the month.

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The Major Trend Index fell to Negative with the latest reading, after spending the last nine months within the Neutral zone.  With the valuation, cyclical, and sentiment components already negative, recent deterioration of market technicals was enough to move the MTI lower. 

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