Research.LeutholdGroup

A Halloween loss of nearly 2% snapped the S&P 500’s five-month win streak. October’s loss, however, did little to ease the downside-to-median risk. 

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The S&P 500 shot up 5.5% in Q3 and marked the seventh advance of the last eight quarters. During this two-year period, the index has posted a total return of +66%.

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The S&P 500’s August gain was its ninth advance in the last ten months. If the index were to retreat to its median level based on data from 1957 forward, the estimated loss is now 43%.

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A second push on July 31st propelled the S&P 500 to another positive month (+1%). Now, if the S&P 500 fell to the 25th percentile (1957-date), it would lose 50%. Using the history since 1995, the downside is 35%.

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The S&P 500 scored another win in June, adding 3.5%. The index has now gained 30% since the end of October.

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The S&P 500 erased its April loss and set a fresh all-time high in May. Thanks to improved fundamentals, the weighted averages of these downside-to-median estimates sit just below their near-term highs of late March.

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The S&P 500 snapped its five-month winning streak as it shed -4.1% in April.

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The S&P 500 recorded its fifth consecutive monthly gain in March (+3.1%). For the first quarter of 2024, the index returned +10.2%, not terribly far from the +11.2% seen in Q4 of 2023.

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The S&P 500 posted its fourth consecutive monthly gain (+5.2%) in February. The index has advanced 22% since the end of October.

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The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs in January and closed the month with a modest 1.6% gain. The advance in the numerator widened our downside-to-median estimates another tick.

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Two years ago, the downside estimates were quite a bit more eye-popping than even today’s still alarming figures.

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The S&P 500’s 9% November advance erased almost all of the previous three months’ losses. The Index now sits very close to its near-term highs set at the end of July.

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With October’s 2% loss, the S&P 500 has now experienced three consecutive monthly declines—a streak not achieved since the onset of the pandemic.

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September’s 5% haircut in the S&P 500 marked its worst month of performance this year. The dip in the market, accompanied by steady-to slightly rising EPS estimates, translated to similar trims for the downside figures.

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Despite August’s strong second half, the S&P 500 snapped its five-month winning streak. The roughly 2% loss took a little air out of the recently ballooning downside estimates.

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The S&P 500 has gained 1,000 points (+28%) since recording a contemporary month-end low at the end of last September.

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June marked the third-consecutive quarterly gain for the S&P 500, with all the results remarkably similar: +7%, +7%, +8%. The index now sits at a level not seen since April 2022.

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A late-month rally propelled the S&P 500 to a very modest gain for May. The last two months have been awfully quiet as far as volatility, with the index’s daily closing levels sitting in a range of just 149 points since the start of April—some kind of Spring doldrums, perhaps. 

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A late-month rally drove the S&P 500 into positive territory for April—the 1% gain pushed it to its highest monthly close in a year.

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The S&P 500 shrugged off a few bank failures and advanced 3.5% in March, ending the month above 4,100 for the first time since last July.

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