Research.LeutholdGroup

With October’s 2% loss, the S&P 500 has now experienced three consecutive monthly declines—a streak not achieved since the onset of the pandemic.

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September’s 5% haircut in the S&P 500 marked its worst month of performance this year. The dip in the market, accompanied by steady-to slightly rising EPS estimates, translated to similar trims for the downside figures.

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Despite August’s strong second half, the S&P 500 snapped its five-month winning streak. The roughly 2% loss took a little air out of the recently ballooning downside estimates.

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The S&P 500 has gained 1,000 points (+28%) since recording a contemporary month-end low at the end of last September.

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June marked the third-consecutive quarterly gain for the S&P 500, with all the results remarkably similar: +7%, +7%, +8%. The index now sits at a level not seen since April 2022.

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A late-month rally propelled the S&P 500 to a very modest gain for May. The last two months have been awfully quiet as far as volatility, with the index’s daily closing levels sitting in a range of just 149 points since the start of April—some kind of Spring doldrums, perhaps. 

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A late-month rally drove the S&P 500 into positive territory for April—the 1% gain pushed it to its highest monthly close in a year.

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The S&P 500 shrugged off a few bank failures and advanced 3.5% in March, ending the month above 4,100 for the first time since last July.

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The S&P 500 sank 2.6% in February, meaning that the index has pretty much gone nowhere for the last six months.

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The S&P 500 bounced 6.2% in January, recovering nearly all of its December loss.

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Santa brought the S&P 500 a lump of coal in December 2022, as the index declined 5.9%. That move reversed November’s gain (and then some).

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The mid-October market bounce extended through November. The S&P 500’s monthly gain (+5.4%) stretched both of our downside-to-median estimates by congruent amounts. Since September 30th, downside for our “New Era” (1995-to-date) weighted average widened from -5% to -17%.

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With an 8% S&P 500 advance in October, our valuation measures bounced pretty hard off the contemporary lows. The estimate for downside to the median,1957-to-date, widened from -21% to -27%; while the “New Era” estimate (1995-to-date) worsened to -12% from -5% at the beginning of October. 

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In September, the S&P 500 suffered its worst monthly loss (-9.3%) since the start of the pandemic.

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It was a rough back half of August for the S&P 500 as it shed 8% in the final two weeks, overpowering the gains captured earlier in the month. In all, the S&P 500 had a loss of 4.2% for August.

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Secular bear markets will drop far below median valuation levels. Today, if the S&P 500 sank to the 25th percentile (1957-to-date data), it would lose 41%.

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A downright awful performance quarter for the S&P 500 (-16.5%) has our downside-to-median estimates at their narrowest points since May 2020.

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A 6.6% gain in the last full week of May brought the S&P 500 right back to where it started the month. As one would expect, the flat market resulted in small changes to the components of our downside estimates, but left our weighted averages for both series unchanged from the previous month.

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The April haircut in the S&P 500 (-8.8%) combined with February and January losses brought a few of our 1995-to-date “Estimating The Downside” measures very close to their 27-year medians for the first time in recent memory. At present, downside to the median is now -16%. Based on 1957-to-date, the S&P 500’s estimated downside to the median is -30%.

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The S&P 500 clawed back some of its losses from earlier in the quarter but still declined almost 5% for the first three months of 2022—breaking a streak of seven consecutive advancing quarters.

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