Estimating The Downside
Back To Median Levels
This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels. The valuation comparisons shown in the itemized tables consider all inflation periods since 1957. The summary tables present: 1) “all years” 1926-to-date; 2) periods of low (< 3%) inflation; and, 3) periods of high (> 5%) inflation.
The S&P 500 gained another 3.7% in December to close the year with a price return of +16.3%.