Research.LeutholdGroup

The S&P 500 turned in its fourth consecutive monthly advance in April, rising 4%.

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At the end of December, valuations were finally starting to look interesting again as our S&P 500 downside to median estimate was “only” -13%.

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The S&P 500’s 3% advance in February caused our downside to median estimate to move 3% in the opposite direction.

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Alas, December’s cheaper valuations may have only been temporary.

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December’s 9% drop in the S&P 500 made this vignette a lot more interesting.

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An eleventh hour surge in equity prices salvaged a positive month for the S&P 500.

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The month of October made this vignette a lot more interesting.

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The S&P 500 squeaked out its sixth consecutive monthly gain in September.

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The S&P 500 gained 3% in August creating a fresh all-time high for the index.

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The S&P 500 got within spitting distance of its January high (price) by gaining 3.6% in July.

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The S&P 500 squeaked out a monthly gain for June—earning a “turkey” of three positive months for the second quarter.

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The S&P 500 held on to its early gains and settled 2.4% higher for the month of May.

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After some price appreciation mid-month, the S&P 500 ended April right where it started.

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Our monthly stock-slump streak has extended to two.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels. The valuation comparisons in the detailed tables consider all inflation periods since 1957.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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Based on 1957-to-date valuation metrics, the S&P 500 potential downside to median levels is -25%. Secular bear markets, however, fall well below median levels; based on a decline to the 25th percentile of 1957-to-date distributions, the S&P 500 would have to fall 36% to 1,591 (not a prediction).

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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The S&P 500 gained 1.9% in January. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside compared to its historical average remained the same as last month’s reading (-21%).

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The S&P 500 gained 1.98% in December. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside compared to its historical average widened by 1% from last month’s –20% reading.

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The S&P 500 gained 3.70% in November. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside to its historical average widened by 1% from last month’s –19% reading.

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BACK TO THE MEDIANS (1957 To Date): S&P 500 19% Downside

The S&P 500 lost 1.82% in October. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside to its historical average narrowed by 1% from last month’s –20% reading. The S&P Industrials’ (excludes Utilities and Financials) downside to mean valuation also “improved” by 1% (to -32%)from last month’s reading.

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The S&P 500 gained 0.02% in September. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, downside to its historical average narrowed by about 1% from last month’s –21% reading.

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The S&P 500 gained 0.1% in August. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, downside to its historical average narrowed by about 1% from last month’s –22% reading.

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The S&P 500 gained 3.7% in July. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, downside to its historical average widened by about 3% from last month’s –19% reading.

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Back to the medians (1957 to date): S&P 500 19% downside.

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BACK TO THE MEDIANS (1957 To Date): S&P 500 20% Downside

The S&P 500 gained 1.5% (price only) in May. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, downside to its historical average increased by about 1% from last month’s -19% reading. The S&P Industrials’ downside to mean valuation (excludes Utilities and Financials) is -29%, unchanged from last month’s reading.

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The S&P 500 gained 0.3% (price only) in April.

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The S&P 500 gained 6.6% (price only) in March.

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The S&P 500 lost 0.4% (price only) in February.

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The S&P Industrials’ downside to mean valuation (excludes Utilities and Financials) is 24%, about 3% less than last month’s reading.

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