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Estimating The Downside

Jul 03 2019

Estimating the Downside - July 2019

  • Jul 3, 2019

The S&P 500 spiked 6.9% higher in June, recouping nearly all the loss incurred in May.

Jun 07 2019

Estimating the Downside - June 2019

  • Jun 7, 2019

The S&P 500 tumbled 6.6% in May, erasing the previous two months’ gains.

May 06 2019

Estimating the Downside - May 2019

  • May 6, 2019

The S&P 500 turned in its fourth consecutive monthly advance in April, rising 4%.

Apr 03 2019

Estimating the Downside - April 2019

  • Apr 3, 2019

At the end of December, valuations were finally starting to look interesting again as our S&P 500 downside to median estimate was “only” -13%.

Mar 07 2019

Estimating the Downside - March 2019

  • Mar 7, 2019

The S&P 500’s 3% advance in February caused our downside to median estimate to move 3% in the opposite direction.

Feb 07 2019

Estimating the Downside - February 2019

  • Feb 7, 2019

Alas, December’s cheaper valuations may have only been temporary.

Jan 07 2019

Estimating the Downside - January 2019

  • Jan 7, 2019

December’s 9% drop in the S&P 500 made this vignette a lot more interesting.

Dec 07 2018

Estimating the Downside - December 2018

  • Dec 7, 2018

An eleventh hour surge in equity prices salvaged a positive month for the S&P 500.

Nov 07 2018

Estimating the Downside - November 2018

  • Nov 7, 2018

The month of October made this vignette a lot more interesting.

Oct 05 2018

Estimating the Downside - October 2018

  • Oct 5, 2018

The S&P 500 squeaked out its sixth consecutive monthly gain in September.

Sep 07 2018

Estimating the Downside - September 2018

  • Sep 7, 2018

The S&P 500 gained 3% in August creating a fresh all-time high for the index.

Aug 07 2018

Estimating the Downside - August 2018

  • Aug 7, 2018

The S&P 500 got within spitting distance of its January high (price) by gaining 3.6% in July.

Jul 06 2018

Estimating the Downside - July 2018

  • Jul 6, 2018

The S&P 500 squeaked out a monthly gain for June—earning a “turkey” of three positive months for the second quarter.

Jun 06 2018

Estimating the Downside - June 2018

  • Jun 6, 2018

The S&P 500 held on to its early gains and settled 2.4% higher for the month of May.

May 04 2018

Estimating the Downside - May 2018

  • May 4, 2018

After some price appreciation mid-month, the S&P 500 ended April right where it started.

Apr 05 2018

Estimating the Downside - April 2018

  • Apr 5, 2018

Our monthly stock-slump streak has extended to two.

Mar 06 2018

Estimating the Downside - March 2018

  • Mar 6, 2018

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Feb 06 2018

Estimating the Downside - February 2018

  • Feb 6, 2018

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Jan 05 2018

Estimating the Downside - January 2018

  • Jan 5, 2018

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Dec 07 2017

Estimating the Downside - December 2017

  • Dec 7, 2017

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Nov 07 2017

Estimating the Downside - November 2017

  • Nov 7, 2017

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Oct 05 2017

Estimating the Downside - October 2017

  • Oct 5, 2017

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels. The valuation comparisons in the detailed tables consider all inflation periods since 1957.

Sep 08 2017

Estimating the Downside - September 2017

  • Sep 8, 2017

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Aug 05 2017

Estimating the Downside - August 2017

  • Aug 5, 2017

Based on 1957-to-date valuation metrics, the S&P 500 potential downside to median levels is -25%. Secular bear markets, however, fall well below median levels; based on a decline to the 25th percentile of 1957-to-date distributions, the S&P 500 would have to fall 36% to 1,591 (not a prediction).

Jul 07 2017

Estimating the Downside - July 2017

  • Jul 7, 2017

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Jun 06 2017

Estimating the Downside - June 2017

  • Jun 6, 2017

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

May 04 2017

Estimating the Downside - May 2017

  • May 4, 2017

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Apr 06 2017

Estimating the Downside - April 2017

  • Apr 6, 2017

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Mar 06 2017

Estimating the Downside - March 2017

  • Mar 6, 2017

This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

Feb 07 2017

Estimating the Downside - February 2017

  • Feb 7, 2017

The S&P 500 gained 1.9% in January. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside compared to its historical average remained the same as last month’s reading (-21%).

Jan 06 2017

Estimating the Downside - January 2017

  • Jan 6, 2017

The S&P 500 gained 1.98% in December. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside compared to its historical average widened by 1% from last month’s –20% reading.

Dec 06 2016

Estimating the Downside - December 2016

  • Dec 6, 2016

The S&P 500 gained 3.70% in November. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside to its historical average widened by 1% from last month’s –19% reading.

Nov 05 2016

Estimating the Downside - November 2016

  • Nov 5, 2016

BACK TO THE MEDIANS (1957 To Date): S&P 500 19% Downside

The S&P 500 lost 1.82% in October. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside to its historical average narrowed by 1% from last month’s –20% reading. The S&P Industrials’ (excludes Utilities and Financials) downside to mean valuation also “improved” by 1% (to -32%)from last month’s reading.

Oct 06 2016

Estimating the Downside - October 2016

  • Oct 6, 2016

The S&P 500 gained 0.02% in September. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, downside to its historical average narrowed by about 1% from last month’s –21% reading.

Sep 08 2016

Estimating the Downside - September 2016

  • Sep 8, 2016

The S&P 500 gained 0.1% in August. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, downside to its historical average narrowed by about 1% from last month’s –22% reading.

Aug 12 2016

Estimating the Downside - August 2016

  • Aug 12, 2016

The S&P 500 gained 3.7% in July. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, downside to its historical average widened by about 3% from last month’s –19% reading.

Jul 08 2016

Estimating the Downside - July 2016

  • Jul 8, 2016

Back to the medians (1957 to date): S&P 500 19% downside.

Jun 06 2016

Estimating the Downside - June 2016

  • Jun 6, 2016

BACK TO THE MEDIANS (1957 To Date): S&P 500 20% Downside

The S&P 500 gained 1.5% (price only) in May. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, downside to its historical average increased by about 1% from last month’s -19% reading. The S&P Industrials’ downside to mean valuation (excludes Utilities and Financials) is -29%, unchanged from last month’s reading.

May 05 2016

Estimating the Downside - May 2016

  • May 5, 2016

The S&P 500 gained 0.3% (price only) in April.

Apr 06 2016

Estimating the Downside - April 2016

  • Apr 6, 2016

The S&P 500 gained 6.6% (price only) in March.