Research.LeutholdGroup

The S&P 500 continued to shrug off long-term valuation averages, gaining 7% in August.

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The S&P 500 gained another 5.5% in July and now stands 49% above its lowest close in March.

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The S&P 500 gained another 2% during June and has bounced an incredible 39% off of its March low.

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As the S&P 500 rallied 4.5% over the course of May, forward earnings estimates continued to crumble.

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The historically reasonable prices didn’t last long (although they may return) as April’s +13% S&P 500 bounce pushed our downside-to-median estimate from -12% to -24%—right back to where we were at the end of February.

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A nice, round -20% Q1 haircut for the S&P 500 took most of the stuffing out of our downside-to-median estimate.

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The last week of February generated a lot of interest in the vignette.

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In December, the S&P 500 advanced for the fourth consecutive month, finishing the quarter with an 8.5% gain.

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During November, the S&P 500 advanced for the third consecutive month, posting a 3.4% gain.

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The S&P 500 rose 2.2% in October and ended the month just a day removed from setting an all-time high.

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The S&P 500 erased the modest losses of August and ended September +1.7%.

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After a gut-check plunge to start the month, the S&P 500 oscillated in a 4% range as investors weighed the trade war, dropping interest rates, and central bank accommodation.

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The S&P 500 set a fresh all-time high in July and ended the month with a modest 1.3% gain.

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The S&P 500 spiked 6.9% higher in June, recouping nearly all the loss incurred in May.

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The S&P 500 tumbled 6.6% in May, erasing the previous two months’ gains.

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The S&P 500 turned in its fourth consecutive monthly advance in April, rising 4%.

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At the end of December, valuations were finally starting to look interesting again as our S&P 500 downside to median estimate was “only” -13%.

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The S&P 500’s 3% advance in February caused our downside to median estimate to move 3% in the opposite direction.

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Alas, December’s cheaper valuations may have only been temporary.

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December’s 9% drop in the S&P 500 made this vignette a lot more interesting.

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