Research.LeutholdGroup

The last week of February generated a lot of interest in the vignette.

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In December, the S&P 500 advanced for the fourth consecutive month, finishing the quarter with an 8.5% gain.

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During November, the S&P 500 advanced for the third consecutive month, posting a 3.4% gain.

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The S&P 500 rose 2.2% in October and ended the month just a day removed from setting an all-time high.

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The S&P 500 erased the modest losses of August and ended September +1.7%.

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After a gut-check plunge to start the month, the S&P 500 oscillated in a 4% range as investors weighed the trade war, dropping interest rates, and central bank accommodation.

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The S&P 500 set a fresh all-time high in July and ended the month with a modest 1.3% gain.

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The S&P 500 spiked 6.9% higher in June, recouping nearly all the loss incurred in May.

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The S&P 500 tumbled 6.6% in May, erasing the previous two months’ gains.

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The S&P 500 turned in its fourth consecutive monthly advance in April, rising 4%.

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At the end of December, valuations were finally starting to look interesting again as our S&P 500 downside to median estimate was “only” -13%.

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The S&P 500’s 3% advance in February caused our downside to median estimate to move 3% in the opposite direction.

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Alas, December’s cheaper valuations may have only been temporary.

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December’s 9% drop in the S&P 500 made this vignette a lot more interesting.

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An eleventh hour surge in equity prices salvaged a positive month for the S&P 500.

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The month of October made this vignette a lot more interesting.

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The S&P 500 squeaked out its sixth consecutive monthly gain in September.

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The S&P 500 gained 3% in August creating a fresh all-time high for the index.

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The S&P 500 got within spitting distance of its January high (price) by gaining 3.6% in July.

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The S&P 500 squeaked out a monthly gain for June—earning a “turkey” of three positive months for the second quarter.

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The S&P 500 held on to its early gains and settled 2.4% higher for the month of May.

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After some price appreciation mid-month, the S&P 500 ended April right where it started.

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Our monthly stock-slump streak has extended to two.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels. The valuation comparisons in the detailed tables consider all inflation periods since 1957.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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Based on 1957-to-date valuation metrics, the S&P 500 potential downside to median levels is -25%. Secular bear markets, however, fall well below median levels; based on a decline to the 25th percentile of 1957-to-date distributions, the S&P 500 would have to fall 36% to 1,591 (not a prediction).

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.

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The S&P 500 gained 1.9% in January. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside compared to its historical average remained the same as last month’s reading (-21%).

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The S&P 500 gained 1.98% in December. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside compared to its historical average widened by 1% from last month’s –20% reading.

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The S&P 500 gained 3.70% in November. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside to its historical average widened by 1% from last month’s –19% reading.

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BACK TO THE MEDIANS (1957 To Date): S&P 500 19% Downside

The S&P 500 lost 1.82% in October. Based on the 1957-to-date valuation metrics presented, the potential downside to its historical average narrowed by 1% from last month’s –20% reading. The S&P Industrials’ (excludes Utilities and Financials) downside to mean valuation also “improved” by 1% (to -32%)from last month’s reading.

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