In contrast to most factor ETFs, Momentum is a chameleon with the potential for drastic allocation shifts. Since 2013, every sector has experienced a dip to a near zero weight in the SPX Mo index, while at some point, six of 11 made up 25-67% of the weight.

• Read more

In an unusual twist, one of the cheapest industries today is part of the hottest theme piloting the bull market higher: The world’s leading memory chip companies can be purchased at P/E multiples less than 7x earnings.

• Read more

S&P 500 >30% earnings growth occurred only two other times since 1990—both were rebounds out of severe downturns. Today’s expansion is propelled by a narrow list of firms exposed to the AI data-center theme; an eventual loss of confidence in such AI outlays could prove disastrous for earnings and stock prices.

• Read more

The economy feels like it is doing fine, but AI capex is carrying the load and, sans that, GDP has muddled along for three straight quarters.

• Read more

Trading rather cheaply on some metrics, small caps have space for improvement even if the S&P 500 holds up. Still, given the index’s vast earning power amassed from the AI data-center boom, we are not ready to call a major turn in the large-cap/small-cap horse-race just yet.

• Read more

The Russell 2000’s July collapse (-3%) was the first time since its ’25 low that it trailed SPX by more than a percentage point. A single month settles nothing. But it was enough to send us under the hood, where a couple of things caught the eye: breadth and lack of staying power.

• Read more

Growth’s P/E gap between trailing and forward EPS is over 10 points—historically high and challenging the 1999 peak. One’s opinion about Growth depends heavily on whether they are looking backward or forward in their P/E calculations.

• Read more

Several leading AI models were engaged to generate personalized investment advice meant to meet the suitability standards required of professional advisors; their results were underwhelming, and yet, enlightening.

• Read more

The decision to lever up reflects the convergence of several behavioral finance hot buttons; today’s 54% absolute margin debt growth, and 26% excess margin debt growth over the last 12 months both exceed the historical trigger points.

• Read more

What is the link between these two intellectual giants who essentially pioneered their respective fields? The recent S-1 filing by SpaceX in support of its IPO is our connection between these two world views.

• Read more

Micron Technology has been the quintessential boom-bust cyclical over most of its history, tracing out a gross margin path that would put to shame any industrial-age steel or chemical company. However, the trillions of dollars being spent on datacenters have put Micron in the catbird’s seat, generating an 85% gross margin in its most recent quarter.

• Read more

Q1 book value changes across most BDCs were modest, implying that the sell-off was driven more by perceived fear than actual erosion in credit quality or loan value. Yet, major BDCs still trade at levels that can be interpreted as genuine discomfort over credit concerns.

• Read more

Wall Street estimates show first-quarter earnings soaring an amazing 27% over 2025’s opener. Just as striking was the extent to which estimates were revised upward as the quarter unfolded.

• Read more

AI-infrastructure outlays stand like a Giant Sequoia in the dense forest of economic activity; the accelerated buildout is masking softer conditions across the rest of the economy. Figures for S&P 500 capex and GDP growth are being distorted by a narrow group of AI beneficiaries.

• Read more

The Dow Jones Industrial Average debuted on May 26, 1896, when Charles Dow summed the prices of a dozen industrial companies and divided by 12.

• Read more

If AI is the darling of Wall Street, major packaged food brands may be the most hated theme of the day. Record-low EPS growth, record-low LTG rates, record-low P/E multiples, and record-low relative prices are priming this group for a classic contrarian opportunity.

• Read more

In May, “Flight S&P 500” covered an amazing chunk of miles flying on just one engine: Info Tech’s tremendous 16% gain, which overshadowed pervasive losses in eight of the other ten sectors. Semiconductors and tech hardware accounted for three-quarters of the index’s upside in May. YTD, over one-tenth of the SPX gain is attributable solely to Micron (more than any other firm).

• Read more

The greatest investment risk from the trillions of dollars betting on AI is that overbuilding will lead to excess capacity with competition driving pricing toward marginal costs. Many players are tossing their hats into the ring, but new-era spending booms often end with just a few dominant firms.

• Read more

Elevated VIX readings capture the early stages of major bear markets, where anxiety was often justified by subsequent larger declines. Investors should treat VIX readings in the 20-30 range as a transition zone—it is the most dangerous area for premature entry, as it captures both recoveries and the early stages of major bear markets.

• Read more

In a strategic pivot, Allbirds, Inc. withdrew from the footwear trade to redeploy assets into an AI data center rental business. Its stock jumped 582% within three days. The notion of a “582% blip” prompted us to further explore the phenomenon of lottery stocks and the behavioral-finance research into investors’ appetite for lottery-like payoffs.

• Read more