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#61 - End of the 4% Club Golden Era
Phil Segner takes another look at the 4% club. For those of you not familiar with this vignette: back in the day, achieving a 4% weight in the S&P 500 had been a rare feat, occurring only during periods of extreme enthusiasm for technology, conglomerates or oil. The blessing of membership soon turned into a curse, with most taking just a cup of coffee behind the velvet ropes before being thrown to the curb because of dramatic underperformance to the rest of the Index.
#60 - MTI Moved to Neutral
The rally that’s kicked off 2023 is internally much stronger than suggested by the major averages, which contributed to the Major Trend Index’s upgrade to neutral in the latest calculation (after nearly a year in the negative zone).
#59 - “Dreams” And “Nightmares”
We update our annual exercise reviewing how the industry “Dreams” and “Nightmares” of the previous year (2021 in this case) fared in the ensuing year (2022), and conclude with the new year’s industry composition of the Dream and Nightmare portfolios based on 2022 performance.
#58 - The 60/40’s Annus Horribilis
The balanced portfolio strategy of allocating 60% to equities and 40% to fixed income generated a highly satisfactory 7.9% annualized return over the last 30 years. Despite the excellent returns earned by investors following this strategic model, the past couple of years have seen a parade of articles with headlines such as “Is the 60/40 Portfolio Obsolete?” and “Is the 60/40 Dead?” Given the central importance of this moderate allocation strategy to investment industry practices, we felt a closer look at the 60/40 portfolio was in order.
October 19, 2022 Webinar with Doug Ramsey
A replay of a Zoom Call with Chief Investment Officer, Doug Ramsey where he shared his thoughts and observations on today's market and what he sees looking ahead. The slides are available through the PDF Download.
#56 - Factor Returns And A Basket Of EGGs
Equity factors are characteristics that have historically generated excess returns relative to the universe of stocks. However, in recent years factor returns have been underwhelming, causing investors to wonder if factors have become too popular, too crowded, or just plain obsolete. Then came the second quarter of 2022, when all six major factors outperformed the S&P 500, a feat only accomplished in four quarters over the last 27 years!
September 21, 2022 Webinar with Jim Paulsen
A replay of a Zoom Call with Chief Investment Strategist, Jim Paulsen where he shared his thoughts and observations on today's market and what he sees looking ahead. The slides are available through the PDF Download.
#54 - Inflation Fever Not Broken
The CPI figures were hotter than expected and point to more Fed intervention. Barring a 2020 collapse in the price index, year-over-year figures are going to remain high for quite some time.
#53 - Earnings Revisions And Predictive Power
While the market moves back into sell-off mode, everyone seems to be waiting for the inevitable hammer to drop on earnings. If and when that happens, does it give us any insight about performance prospects? Or does it just make forward P/E ratios less attractive?
Podcast #52 - More Shrinkage for EPS Estimates
Estimates are continuing to shrink for 2022 and 2023.
#51 - Yield Curve Inversion
Our recession indicators have continued to deteriorate. Given the stagflation backdrop, the Fed’s tightening cycle is very likely to end in a recession.
July 27, 2022 Webinar with Doug Ramsey
A replay of a Zoom Call with Chief Investment Officer, Doug Ramsey where he shared his thoughts and observations on today's market and what he sees looking ahead. The slides are available through the PDF Download.
June 21, 2022 Webinar with Jim Paulsen
A replay of a Zoom Call with Chief Investment Strategist, Jim Paulsen where he shared his thoughts and observations on today's market and what he sees looking ahead. The slides are available through the PDF Download.
#48 - EPS Estimates Finally Turn South
After nearly two years of persistent and dramatic upward revisions to the forward EPS estimates, there are some recent signs that that party may have ended.
April 20, 2022 Webinar with Doug Ramsey
A replay of a Zoom Call with Chief Investment Officer, Doug Ramsey where he shared his thoughts and observations on today's market and what he sees looking ahead. The slides are available through the PDF Download.
March 16, 2022 Webinar with Jim Paulsen
A replay of a Zoom Call with Chief Investment Strategist, Jim Paulsen where he shared his thoughts and observations on today's market and what he sees looking ahead. The slides are available through the PDF Download.
#45 - AAPL Takes on the World
It’s probably about high time that we check in with our past and present members of the esteemed 4% Club.
Podcast #44 - A Detour On The Way To The Moon
It’s been a year since the retail crowd on WallStreetBets—a Reddit forum—banded together to “stick it to the shorts.” The event was short-lived, but the effects are still being felt throughout the market.
January 27, 2022 Webinar with Doug Ramsey
A replay of a Zoom Call with Chief Investment Officer, Doug Ramsey where he shared his thoughts and observations on today's market and what he sees looking ahead. The slides are available through the PDF Download.
December 20, 2021 Webinar with Jim Paulsen
A replay of a Zoom Call with Chief Investment Strategist, Jim Paulsen where he shared his thoughts and observations on today's market and what he sees looking ahead. The slides are available through the PDF Download.