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Jun 04 2021

Podcast #36 - “How Low” Could Credit Spreads Go?

  • Jun 4, 2021

Everyone is struggling with allocations to a fixed-income market that seems exceptionally over-priced. Cash rates remain near zero, and the 10-year Treasury yield—at 1.65%—sells at a 61x P/E multiple for a coupon without any growth! Moreover, junk-yield spreads are near record lows, and investment-grade credit spreads are at their tightest levels in at least 20 years. Finally, it’s a pretty good bet that yields are headed higher in the next few years.

May 25 2021

Podcast #35 - Do You Know Your “Labor Liability?”

  • May 25, 2021

After significantly decreasing in the previous decade, employee compensation of U.S. corporations, as a percent of nominal GDP, has risen slowly but steadily since 2010. That is, rising labor costs have proved to be a modest but growing challenge for labor-intensive industries.

May 21 2021

Podcast #34 - It’s “REVAL” Time!

  • May 21, 2021

Most bull markets of the last 40 years commenced when company fundamentals and earnings were still declining from a recession. Because of that, valuations often worsen considerably during a fresh bull run as the stock market surges despite continued earnings weakness.

May 03 2021

Podcast #33 - Introducing the New MTI

  • May 3, 2021

We launched a revamped version of our Major Trend Index. The objective of the new methodology is to increase the flexibility, and even the subjectivity of the MTI. This approach recognizes the “subjective reality,” without forcing us into the tedium of re-weighting sub-factors if they become more or less critical as market dynamics evolve.

Apr 20 2021

April 20, 2021 Zoom Call with Doug Ramsey

  • Apr 20, 2021

A replay of a Zoom Call with Chief Investment Officer, Doug Ramsey where he shared his thoughts and observations on today's market and what he sees looking ahead. The slides are available through the PDF Download.

Mar 22 2021

Podcast #31 - Valuation Extremes: Here Be Dragons

  • Mar 22, 2021

Top decile valuations are often the result of unduly positive investor sentiment that leads to inflated multiples. Bullishness comes in varying strengths: optimism, enthusiasm, exuberance, and, at the extreme, the mania of crowds. 

Mar 09 2021

March 9, 2021 Zoom Call with Jim Paulsen

  • Mar 9, 2021

Replay of a Zoom Call with Chief Investment Strategist, Jim Paulsen where he shared his thoughts and observations on today's market and what he sees looking ahead. The slides are available through the PDF Download.

Mar 05 2021

Podcast #29 - Durables' Day In the Sun

  • Mar 5, 2021

Durables have bounced back much stronger than non-durables while services have lagged. Inflation's reaction has been muted to these moves.

Feb 09 2021

Podcast #28 - YOLO Mania

  • Feb 9, 2021

The Redditors came for the hedge funds, and chaos ensued. We think that when the dust settles, the Reddit crowd will be the spark that allowed more powerful market players to inflect the real pain. Our thoughts, from experience, on why this happened and how we try to avoid it.

Jan 19 2021

Jan 19th Zoom Call - New leadership from Washington to Wall Street Confirmation

  • Jan 19, 2021

With new leadership in Washington and--with large-cap growth’s decade-long stranglehold on outperformance looking shakier than ever--a potential leadership change in equity markets as well, Leuthold Group CIO Doug Ramsey will share his current views and what he will be looking out for in 2021.

Jan 08 2021

Podcast #26 - Looking Forward To 2021 Earnings

  • Jan 8, 2021

As we turn the page on 2020, a peek ahead to the S&P 500’s 2021 operating earnings is probably in order. You never know, earnings and valuations might be important again one day.

Dec 15 2020

Podcast #25 - Anything But Growth

  • Dec 15, 2020

Driven by massive government stimulus, an imminent vaccine rollout, and the expectation of record earnings in 2021, investors seem to be on the verge of embracing a move away from Large Cap Growth stocks in earnest. The leading candidates offered as broad-based alternatives to Large Growth (LG) include Value, Small Caps, and Emerging Markets.

Nov 30 2020

Podcast #24 - Put Some Bit(e) In Your Coin!

  • Nov 30, 2020

Balanced portfolio investors face a difficult challenge finding equity alternatives that modify risk without overly reducing reward. The problem is acute because traditional choices have lost much of their historic appeal. Cash certainly lessens volatility, but, with a zero yield, its reward penalty is excessive.

Nov 27 2020

Podcast #23 - Investors Face Disparate Choices

  • Nov 27, 2020

Perusing current equity-investment possibilities highlights a diverse set of choices. Focusing on only two primary attributes—relative price and relative earnings—illustrates considerable diversity among the major investment styles.

Nov 25 2020

Podcast #22 - An Economic Pandemic Divergence

  • Nov 25, 2020

Although COVID-19 has significantly impacted everyone, its economic wake has been unusually bifurcated compared to past crises. Since the pandemic requires social distancing, the recession and its aftermath have been concentrated disproportionately among “social and lower-earning” industries. This odd, if not unique, divergence in the economic fortunes of low and high-earning industries perhaps explains how overall real GDP, the unemployment rate, the housing industry, manufacturing activities, and other economic segments have managed to recover quickly and powerfully.

Nov 11 2020

Podcast #21 - FAANGless Large Cap Growth

  • Nov 11, 2020

FAANG has dramatically outperformed Large Cap Growth the past ten years, but is has become cheaper and slightly less growth-oriented in the process. We examine the extent FAANG performance has carried through to the rest of the Large Cap Growth universe and how to get growth without them.

Oct 29 2020

Oct 29, 2020 ZOOM Call: Doug Ramsey's Views on the Market and Q&A

  • Oct 29, 2020

Replay of a ZOOM Call with Chief Investment Officer, Doug Ramsey. He shares his thoughts and observations on today's market and what he sees looking ahead and answers questions.

Oct 27 2020

Podcast #19 - 2021 Earnings: How Do We Get There?

  • Oct 27, 2020

Scott Opsal looks at S&P 500 forward earnings for 2021 and how they stack up against pre-pandemic economic healthy year of 2019.

Oct 12 2020

Podcast #18: Examining The “Reopening Economy”

  • Oct 12, 2020

We examine a variety of industry groups with noteworthy relative price action on both “reopening” and “closed economy” days. Our objective is to shed more light on the industry groups that are consistently moving together on these days.

Oct 01 2020

Podcast #17: A Wobble at the Top

  • Oct 1, 2020

Look, quick! Before it reverses! The Top-5 firms in the S&P 500 have underperformed in September! I’m sorry, you’ll have to forgive my sense of urgency, but the astounding speed and consistency in which these firms have outperformed may have burned the notion into my brain that they can only “go up” (or at the very least beat the index).