For much of the last year, we’ve noted markets have persistently underpriced geopolitical risk, treating it like background noise versus a real threat. Recent events have forced a correction to that stance. Oil, in turn, has reclaimed its function as a geopolitical risk hedge—a role it had abandoned for a long time.

Stocks in the Energy sector have massively outperformed since the Iran war onset; yet prior to that, the fundamentals in this space had already strengthened and the oil price surge is an extra bonus. Expectations have remained low while positive surprises have been delivered, making for a favorable setup.

The index had its worst month since the tariff tantrum one year ago. Yet, a sharp rally on the last trading day took some of the sting out of the March loss; downside estimates narrowed by a similar amount.

There’s been a major return benefit for selling AAPL when it hits a 7% SPX weight and repurchasing after reverting back to a 6% weight. We tracked three options to switch into after a 7% “sell” trigger, holding till a new buy is flagged, and each crushed the approach of holding AAPL through the rotation.

Walmart’s performance and expanding P/E ratio contradicts the Staples sector’s less dynamic results, so either Walmart is commanding a growth premium, or investors are applying different valuation standards across the sector. Either way, count us as skeptical.

The evolution of BDC asset values may shed new light on how much of the bear market in alternative asset management stocks is due to genuine economic risk and how much is fueled by an over-reaction to the software and redemption scare.

Private credit has dominated headlines for all the wrong reasons, devastating alternative asset managers linked to that space. When we see a group of stocks with 30%+ losses in a matter of months, our contrarian “Spidey-Sense” starts to tingle, and we begin to wonder if a bargain is in the making.

Read this week's Major Trend

Read this week's Major Trend. 

The launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28th triggered a 51% surge in WTI crude in just three weeks, reigniting investor fears of economic disruption reminiscent of the 1973 OPEC embargo. As tactical investors, we were curious to see what the historical impact of sharp oil price spikes has been on the stock market and on important macro indicators. This analysis evaluates 15 distinct oil price shock episodes since 1985, each characterized by a greater than 20% price increase within 30 days, to assess the historical impact on equity markets, GDP, inflation, and interest rates.

Read this week's Major Trend. 

Read this week's Major Trend. 

The latest CPI numbers are in-line, but the war complicates the outlook. Our scorecard shifts close to neutral and we recommend a more cautious stance toward inflation.

Read this week's Major Trend. 

Employment growth across sectors is now highly concentrated, indicating the job market is being held up by an ever-dwindling cohort of prosperous industries. Coupled with lackluster growth in 2025, this is cause for concern. Yet, history suggests that relief could be just beyond the horizon.

Dispersion remains elevated among factors, with growth selling off and momentum turning in extreme performance spreads. Low-volatility names finally did well after a long stretch of underperformance.

Those complaining about the “Top 1%” controlling all the wealth may finally be getting some satisfaction. Since Halloween, it has been mostly rough sledding for our five-member “4% Club” contingent.

We tackle the challenge of appraising an investment that doesn’t produce income or cash flow by weighing the price of gold against other familiar investments and concepts that can be quantified—like home prices and inflation.

When bombs fly, the reward for bravery is rarely paid on schedule. We do not think this is the time to heroically outguess geopolitics or to confuse short-term fortitude with long-term clarity.

If the dot-com boom was a tale of public markets eagerly underwriting a technological future and then abruptly withdrawing that support, the AI fervor looks like a story of private capital and corporate balance sheets quietly doing the same—but with far less accountability.

Equity market resilience against war headlines, AI disruption fears, and private credit stress have so far been largely supported by a rare “Goldilocks” macro setup. Enter the three bears: Software stocks, private credit/BDCs, and bitcoin.

With S&P 500 Q4 reporting winding down, estimated operating EPS is now 6.9% higher than at the start of the year.

Read this week's Major Trend. 

The Leuthold Major Trend Index tracks eight sentiment surveys; four from the Conference Board covering consumer confidence and four industry measures of investor convictions. Each of these are contrarian signals, meaning that negative sentiment often relates to stronger equity markets while positive sentiment leads to weaker markets. We periodically review the effectiveness of each signal in the MTI, and this study takes a fresh look at a group of indicators related to consumer confidence and investor expectations.

Read this week's Major Trend. 

Read this week's Major Trend. 

The latest CPI numbers were cooler than the seasonal pattern suggests. Our scorecard continue to suggest a mostly benign inflation picture.

Read this week's Major Trend.

The commencement of Trump’s two terms were separated by eight years, a global pandemic, trillions in stimulus, and the quiet burial of several macroeconomic and civic assumptions once thought indestructible. While the personalities and rhetoric remain familiar, the economic backdrop, policy constraints, and market sensitivities of 2025 bore little resemblance to those of 2017.

Financial markets mimicked Mother Nature in the fourth quarter, drifting into a kind of hibernation. Style returns were rangebound around zero, and the spread between returns was about as narrow as we can recall. Active portfolio performance shows there wasn’t much to pick from to add significant value.

A small-cap bounce in January is arguably the best-known of all stock market anomalies, but for much of the last decade it’s been a flop. This year, it was back in full force... until it faded. Despite giving back some of its sizzle in late January, the Russell 2000 ended the month with a 4% advantage over the S&P 500—its best January since 2023.

With structural economic and market changes, and influences of ever-evolving tech advances, years ago we introduced our “New-Era” median valuation metrics (1995-present). For the last decade, we’ve drifted further away from those “New-Era” benchmarks, which compelled us to take a look at today’s stock valuations compared to “New-New” Era median levels based on data from 2018-forward.

Annual style rebalancing triggered a sizable trim to IT exposure in the S&P 500 Value Index, but it is still the largest weight, followed closely by Financials. Revisions in the S&P 500 Growth Index caused its top-heavy concentration to become even more pronounced: Tech and Comm Services comprise 65% of the total weight. If counting the Mag 7 from Discretionary, tech titans make up 71% of the index.

In January, a surge in Japanese Government Bond yields occurred simultaneously with a selloff in the Yen—a sign of intensifying market concern about fiscal stability. Interestingly, collective stress in both the JGB and Yen has yet to spill over into the Nikkei Index, but if history is any guide, it is doubtful that Japanese equities will continue to be immune.

After the first month of Q4 reporting, S&P 500 estimated bottom-up operating EPS are now 4.5% higher than at the end of December. This bounce follows the initial script of the previous two quarters, which saw projections jump 2% July and 5% in October. Final figures for both Q2 and Q3 continued to climb as reporting progressed, so we’d presume Q4 to follow suit, increasing somewhat more before earnings season is finished. Also, Q4 has now finally shot above its pre-“Liberation Day” estimate set back in March.

Read this week's Major Trend. 

Read this week's MTI

Wise investors have long understood that fear and pessimism often create excellent buying opportunities, while exuberance and greed often produce an environment that leads to poor future returns. Sentiment is one of the four pillars of our Major Trend Index, and a wide variety of approaches to gauging the mood of investors have evolved over the years. One set of metrics within our Sentiment category focuses on the level of volatility implied in option prices, and our research shows that option volatility is a reliable, contrary indicator of sentiment, which in turn is a useful regime indicator for future returns.

Read the latest MTI update

The latest CPI numbers were largely in-line. The powerful alignment of fiscal and monetary policies will certainly alter the path of inflation this year, but for now, our discipline still suggests a mostly benign inflation picture.