Research.LeutholdGroup

This month’s Leuthold Refresh is a quarterly update on our factor regime analysis. Factors, or investment styles, have historically performed quite differently under various economic and market conditions, and we’ve mapped these relationships to identify the factors best positioned for the environment at this time.

• Read more

Analysts often address sales and net income but rarely speak to the middle lines of the income statement. Our methodology works through each major line item—from sales to net profit—comparing the most recent quarter to the same quarter of a year earlier.

• Read more

While mid- and small caps notably underperformed, large growth results were freakish. Measured against the S&P 500 Growth index, an implausible 96% of active large growth funds beat that benchmark—a result that stands as one of the most extreme win rates ever seen for a style box.

• Read more

Speculating on the link between style performance and interest rates is a favorite pastime of factor aficionados, but 2023 provided a real-time laboratory to evaluate those ideas. We examined factor returns during the interest rate swings to uncover some empirical insights into this important relationship.

• Read more

This month’s Refresh continues our practice of summarizing the latest earnings season by evaluating the composite results of the S&P 500 member companies.

• Read more

Our analysis has consistently affirmed that actively managed portfolios do relatively better against their benchmarks during weaker market settings. In terms of active vs. passive, portfolio managers should love bearish environments, and third-quarter returns held true to that notion.

• Read more

The dominating and overwhelming gains by the Magnificent Seven have made it nearly impossible for most traditional equity factors to excel. Only two styles have managed to surpass the S&P 500’s YTD return: Growth and Quality—and both have healthy exposures to the Magnificent Seven.

• Read more

This month’s Refresh continues our practice of summarizing the latest earnings season by evaluating the composite results of the S&P 500 member companies. Many analysts address sales and net income, but rarely speak to the middle lines of the income statement.

• Read more

The active/passive performance derby experienced a severe case of whiplash the last three months. Through the end of the first quarter, market conditions were advantageous for active managers, now the second quarter has revealed a massive shift in favor of passive styles.

• Read more

This Leuthold Refresh updates our Factor Tilt analysis, an ongoing process to evaluate the attractiveness of commonly accepted investment styles. Factors are investment characteristics that have historically produced excess risk-adjusted returns, but relative results fluctuate over time.

• Read more

This note continues our practice of summarizing the latest earnings season by analyzing the composite results of the S&P 500 member companies, as if the SPY ETF represented a share in a single company with 500 subsidiaries.

• Read more

The performance derby between actively managed portfolios and passively managed index funds is a fascinating and important topic in the investment community at large. This note provides a brief update our previous studies through the first quarter of 2023.

• Read more