Skip to content

Stock Market Internals Earnings Momentum, Small/Mid/Large Caps, Growth/Value/Cyclicals, and Additional Factors

Mar 05 2021

Earnings Momentum

  • Mar 5, 2021

The Up/Down ratio reads 1.48. Given the change in our daily lives, it’s pretty amazing that we’re so close to a “normal” Up/Down ratio considering the pre-pandemic look-back period.

Mar 05 2021

Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap

  • Mar 5, 2021

The Russell 2000 has now outperformed the S&P 500 for six consecutive months. This vignette can still be used to make a relative valuation call for Small Caps over Large Caps, but the window seems to be closing quickly.

Mar 05 2021

Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals

  • Mar 5, 2021

As interest rates climb, the preference for Large Growth continues to flag. Our Royal Blue segment, the darling of 2020, is the only style box in negative territory YTD.​

Mar 05 2021

Additional Factors

  • Mar 5, 2021

The sails have gone slack for the S&P 500’s Top-5 firms. Since the trend change at the end of August, the index has advanced 10%. As a group, the five Tech Titans have actually hindered performance during that span (-0.4% contribution).

Feb 05 2021

Earnings Momentum

  • Feb 5, 2021

As we kick-off Q4-20 earnings reports, our Up/Down ratio reads 2.19. We’re a bit surprised to have such a strong number given that the YOY look-back hurdle is pre-pandemic.

Feb 05 2021

Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap

  • Feb 5, 2021

Our Ratio of Ratios has rocketed toward its historical median over the last two months. Over that time, the Russell 2000 (+14%) has absolutely trounced the S&P 500 (+3%). Buying Small Caps over Large on a relative valuation argument can still be made—but that window seems to be closing quickly.

Feb 05 2021

Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals

  • Feb 5, 2021

Both of the Small Cap styles had a terrific start to 2021 as each gained +6.7%. Small Cap Growth is now the best-performing style box since the end of 2019 (+44%).

Feb 05 2021

Additional Factors

  • Feb 5, 2021

The Equal Weighted S&P 500 has clawed back most of its enormous return deficit. The one-year trailing return favored the Cap Weighted measure by +13.5% at the end of August—the widest rift since we exited the Great Recession. As of the end of January that gap had been whittled down to +3.5%.

Jan 08 2021

Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap

  • Jan 8, 2021

Half of the Small Cap discount registered at the end of March 2020 (36%) has now been erased. Small Caps have outperformed Large since that extreme reading (Russell 2000 +71%; S&P 500 +45%).

Jan 08 2021

Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals

  • Jan 8, 2021

Across all of our market-cap breakdowns, Growth beat Value by at least 30% in 2020. In the Royal Blue Index, Growth beat Value by 38%—the largest annual gap between these Growth and Value segments since Growth’s 39% outperformance in 1999.

Jan 08 2021

Additional Factors

  • Jan 8, 2021

Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon collectively added $2 trillion in market cap over the past twelve months, and ended 2020 making up 16.4% of the S&P 500. Those three firms were responsible for a little more than one-half of the index’s +18.4% total return for the year.

Dec 04 2020

Earnings Momentum

  • Dec 4, 2020

Folding in the second month of Q3-20 reporting produces an Up/Down ratio of 1.08. Keen observers will note little deterioration from the “one-month” figure of 1.14. Historically, there is a 20% haircut to the ratio after adding in the second month of results.

Dec 04 2020

Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap

  • Dec 4, 2020

November’s Small Cap surge hasn’t affected our Ratio of Ratios in a dramatic fashion. Trailing valuations, both for Large and Small Caps, have increased equally in this vignette.

Dec 04 2020

Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals

  • Dec 4, 2020

In a stunning reversal, Small Cap Value has outperformed our Royal Blue Growth by 22% over the last two months. Despite the huge about-face, Small Value is still very undervalued relative to Large Growth.

Dec 04 2020

Additional Factors

  • Dec 4, 2020

The Equal Weighted S&P 500 completed its third consecutive month of outperformance over the Cap Weighted measure in spectacular fashion. The 3.3% advantage was the largest monthly win for the more democratic flavor since April of 2009.

Nov 06 2020

Earnings Momentum

  • Nov 6, 2020

As we start Q3-2020 reporting, our first Up/Down ratio reads 1.14. Although this observation is in the eighth percentile of our 37 years of data, it is shockingly better than the two quarters that preceded it (0.72 and 0.63).

Nov 05 2020

MTI Slips To Negative

  • Nov 5, 2020

Read this week's Major Trend.

Nov 06 2020

Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap

  • Nov 6, 2020

Small Cap Discount = 22%

Using non-normalized trailing operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a 22% valuation discount to Large Caps, as illustrated in the chart. Since the market lows in March, we’ve seen a steady uptrend in Small Cap performance (Russell 2000 +55%, S&P 500 +46%). However, the valuation gap between the two flavors remains historically very wide, thanks to the previous four years of Large Cap outperformance. Based on full-year 2021 earnings estimates (see table), Small Caps are also at a 22% discount to Large Caps.

Nov 06 2020

Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals

  • Nov 6, 2020

Small Cap Value was the top performing style box in October—the first time in recent memory. Its YTD underperformance versus our Royal Blue Growth segment is still nearly 40%.

Nov 06 2020

Additional Factors

  • Nov 6, 2020

S&P 500: Election Reverses “Young” Trend