Stock Market Internals Earnings Momentum, Small/Mid/Large Caps, Growth/Value/Cyclicals, and Additional Factors
Earnings Momentum
With the second month of Q2-22 earnings in the books, our Up/Down ratio is 1.04; levels this low have always been accompanied by an economic recession. It’s hard to make a case why this go-round would be any different.
Small Cap vs. Mid Cap vs. Large Cap
Like puka necklaces and Ska music, Small Cap stocks are having a hard time coming back into favor. Our Ratio of Ratios has been below its median premium for almost four years. A near-term recession may push this relationship even lower, initially, but could provide a catalyst to return to a more “normal” figure.
Growth vs. Value vs. Cyclicals
After surging in July, our Royal Blue Growth segment (-6%) led all other style boxes in August. Since the end of November 2021: Royal Blue Growth = -28%, Royal Blue Value = +3%.
Additional Factors
The back end of August saw the S&P 500 give up about half of the 17% gain achieved from June’s closing low. The nine week bear-market bounce was fairly uniform across the major indexes: S&P 400 +19%, S&P 600 +19%, and the Nasdaq Composite +23%. Over the course of the bounce, impressive gains from AAPL +33%, AMZN +40%, and TSLA +44% accounted for roughly a fourth of the S&P 500’s advance.
Earnings Momentum
With the first month of Q2-22 earnings in the books, our Up/Down ratio is 1.09. This figure lands in the fifth percentile of observations for our 39-year history and nearly matches the “one-month” reading of Q1.
Small Cap vs. Mid Cap vs. Large Cap
Our Ratio of Ratio’s contemporary peak (Feb. 2021) of an 8% Small-Cap discount unsurprisingly coincided with a relative strength top in the Russell 2000. Over the ensuing 17 months, the Russell 2000 posted a 13% decline compared to an 11% advance for the S&P 500.
Growth vs. Value vs. Cyclicals
Growth stocks staged a modest rebound in July but still trail Value YTD, most notably in our Royal Blue segments. RB Value (-3.1%); RB Growth (-24.6%).
Earnings Momentum
With the final month of Q1-22 earnings in the books, our Up/Down ratio is 1.05. We should note that this depressed level has preceded or accompanied every recession in our 39-year data set.
Small Cap vs. Large Cap vs. Mid Cap
Our Ratio of Ratios ends Q2 with the largest Small Cap discount since May 2020. From the start of the year, on an absolute basis, the Large Cap P/E ratio moved from 28.7x to 22.0x; the Small Cap multiple declined to 16.2x from 21.6x.
Growth vs. Value vs. Cyclicals
The brutal first half for Growth stocks has valuations approaching their 40-year average, while Small Cap Growth continues to feature a steep discount to that.
Additional Factors
The first six months of 2022 have been unpleasant for risk indexes of every stripe. The S&P 500 (World’s Reserve Index) returned almost precisely -20% and its constituents lost $8.45 trillion in market value. Poof, gone. Similar first-half losses by the S&P 400 (-19.5%) and the S&P 600 (-18.9%) resulted in paper forfeitures for its member firms of “only” $518 billion and $221 billion, respectively.
Earnings Momentum
With the second month of Q1-22 earnings in the books, our Up/Down ratio is a very weak 1.06. Even if we are nearing a cycle peak, the level of earnings is still impressive. S&P 500 four-quarter trailing earnings are now 34% higher than the previous peak just three years ago.
Small Cap vs. Mid Cap vs. Large Cap
Our Ratio of Ratios sits right at the 12-month moving average with no clear trend. Small Caps seem priced to outperform but that’s been the case for the better part of four years.
Growth vs. Value vs. Cyclicals
Beat up Small Cap Growth has returned to its September 2020 price level with much improved fundamentals. Over the last twenty months, that segment’s median P/E multiple has moved from 39.7x to 27.1x and is now below its 1982-to-date average.
Additional Factors
The gyrating S&P 500 found a way to end the month perfectly flat. Retailers, casinos, hotels, and resorts all felt the pressure of passing along higher prices to consumers. Energy firms benefiting from an increased slice of consumers’ budgets made up most of the top-25 performing firms in May. That sector has grown from 2.7% of the S&P 500 to 4.8% in the first five months of 2022.
Earnings Momentum
With the first month of Q1-22 earnings in the books, our Up/Down ratio is 1.08. Gone are the easy hurdle rates of 2020. This abysmal figure sits in the sixth percentile of observations for our 38-year history.
Small Cap vs. Mid Cap vs. Large Cap
Our Ratio of Ratios sits at its twelve-month average after an awful month for stocks in both market-cap tiers. The absolute trailing P/E ratios for both Small- and Large-Cap stocks in our L3000 Universe are down significantly from the start of the year.
Growth vs. Value vs. Cyclicals
Our Ratio of Ratios sits at its twelve-month average after an awful month for stocks in both market-cap tiers. The absolute trailing P/E ratios for both Small- and Large-Cap stocks in our L3000 Universe are down significantly from the start of the year.
S&P 500: Kicked In The FAANGs
Those once high-flying FAANG stocks continue to run into rough pockets of air. Following Facebook’s 33% dive in February, Netflix (-49%), Amazon (-24%), and Google (-18%) followed suit in April as the latter two trillion-dollar firms posted their worst monthly returns since 2008. Only Apple—which still carries an enormous 7% weight in the S&P 500—has avoided a recent gut-wrenching plunge.
Earnings Momentum
With the final month of Q4-21 earnings in the books, our Up/Down ratio is 1.30. This figure is looking more and more “late cycle,” and earnings growth is not equal across the market cap tiers.