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Earnings Almanac

Jun 04 2024

EPS Estimates Holding Up Well

  • Jun 4, 2024

Q1 bottom-up operating EPS for the S&P 500 sank slightly to $54.94 after the second month of reporting.  However, with reporting for the Index nearly complete, this figure is still 70 cents above the final pre-reporting estimate recorded at the end of March. The fifteen months of Q1 snail trail in Chart 1 shows remarkably consistent estimates, especially given our recent “ski slope” quarters of 2023. EPS estimates, at least in the aggregate, continue to hold up nicely for the other three quarters of 2024 reporting as well.

May 02 2024

Sales Beats Continue To Underwhelm

  • May 2, 2024

Q1 bottom-up S&P 500 operating EPS estimates jumped a little over a dollar to $55.36 after the first month of reporting. This halted the usual “slow-erosion” pattern that shaved $3 off the quarter’s estimate since last summer (Chart 1). The three forward quarters of 2024 also experienced a bump in estimates. S&P 500 full-year EPS projections now sit at $242. That would be a 13% YOY gain from 2023’s results.

Mar 04 2024

A Small Bump In EPS With Latest Q4 Reports

  • Mar 4, 2024

On its face, the second month of Q4 reporting was much more positive than the first. After sagging in January, the S&P 500 bottom-up EPS estimate rose back to $54—almost exactly where it stood before Q4 announcements got underway (Chart 1). With just a few stragglers left to report, full-year 2023 EPS will come in at $214. That’s almost 9% better than 2022’s final result.

Feb 02 2024

Same Themes Continue In Q4

  • Feb 2, 2024

Well, it’s Groundhog’s Day Earnings Season… again. With the first month of results for Q4, operating earnings estimates for the S&P 500 continued their long slide from their optimistic highs set back in June of 2022 (Chart 1). The 20% drop in projected EPS didn’t stop the index from rallying +30% over those 19 months. Full-year 2023 operating EPS is now crystallizing around $210—a 7% gain from 2022’s results.

Dec 04 2023

Disappointing On The Top Line

  • Dec 4, 2023

As we put a fork in the S&P 500’s Q3 earnings, our snail trail is now decidedly pointing south. However, the kink you see in Chart 1 should not be viewed as an EPS collapse. An accounting sleight of hand from Berkshire Hathaway—R.I.P. Charlie Munger—shaved off just under $3/share in EPS for the index. If that were added back, the quarterly estimate of $55 would be pretty much unchanged since the start of the summer.

Nov 01 2023

Not A Good Time To Miss Estimates

  • Nov 1, 2023

A little over half of the S&P 500 reported earnings for calendar Q3-23 in October. Bottom-up operating EPS estimates for the quarter have remained basically flat since May. This is a positive development given the proclivity of EPS estimates to erode over time. We should note, however, that longer term, the decline in estimates for Q3 has been well above average—diminishing by 14% since April of 2022. If there will be another reporting window pop in EPS estimates for Q3 like we saw for Q1 and Q2, it will have to come in November.

Sep 05 2023

Excellent Back 9 For Q2 Reporting

  • Sep 5, 2023

An outstanding second half for Q2-23 earnings pushed the S&P 500 bottom-up EPS estimate from $51.30 to $54.92. Amazon and Nvidia were the two largest contributors to the August surge. With the entire index nearly done reporting, our current EPS estimate will end 11% below its high watermark ($61.56).

Aug 01 2023

Q2—The EPS Slide Resumes

  • Aug 1, 2023

Q2-23 reporting is about halfway complete for firms in the S&P 500. Bottom-up operating EPS estimates for Q2 are once again sliding lower as we wade farther into earnings season. This attrition is not uncommon but it is certainly a break from Q1 announcements, where EPS estimates rose 5% over the course of reporting. Q1’s action was a bullish talking point for many who touted the end of higher-than-normal erosion in forward EPS estimates over the past year. Since peaking in April 2022 at $61.56, Q2’s EPS estimate has shrunk nearly 17% (Chart 1).

Jun 01 2023

Unraveling Q1’s Twists

  • Jun 1, 2023

Earnings Almanac is a new research product where we dive into quarterly reporting for the S&P 500. The report is released the first week of the last two months of the calendar quarter.