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Major Trend Index

Sep 18 2018

MTI: 52-Week New Highs And Lows Both Elevated

  • Sep 18, 2018

High/Low Logic Index readings suggest a “fractured” stock market. Usually, though, a fractured stock market is also a narrow one, but the evidence on that score is mixed.

Sep 11 2018

MTI: Trend-Following Measures Remain Strong

  • Sep 11, 2018

Even the long-term trend model on the MSCI ACWI, which has been considerably weaker than the S&P 500 for several months, reverted to bull territory last week.

Sep 07 2018
Sep 05 2018

MTI: Market Sentiment Is Overconfident

  • Sep 5, 2018

The Attitudinal category neared a new negative extreme for the rally off February lows, while the Intrinsic Value category reached a new extreme for the entire bull market. This combination of overvaluation and overconfidence will eventually be resolved with large market losses…

Aug 28 2018

MTI: Modest Gains In Three Categories

  • Aug 28, 2018

Daily and weekly versions of all the advance/decline lines we track stood at cycle highs at week’s end, which—alongside the high in the Value Line Arithmetic Average—makes it hard to argue the market has narrowed significantly.

Aug 21 2018

MTI: No Major Swings

  • Aug 21, 2018

Improvement in the Momentum work has been insufficient to offset weakness elsewhere, leaving the weight of the evidence still bearish. However, persistent strength in this category has been enough to discourage us from establishing additional equity hedges in our tactical funds.

Aug 14 2018

MTI: Confidence Builds As S&P Flirts With High

  • Aug 14, 2018

The Attitudinal-category reading has moved to a six-month extreme as the S&P 500 flirts with its January high; improvement in the Economic work continues to reflect the pullback in various commodity measures.

Aug 07 2018

MTI: Economic Measures Improve

  • Aug 7, 2018

The 30-point gain in the economic category was driven by a continued pullback in inflation measures. It’s possible that some of this reflects the chilling effects of escalating trade tensions. If that’s true, it’s the only positive side effect we can think of, and it won’t last long.

Aug 07 2018

Negative MTI Suggests Rally At Risk

  • Aug 7, 2018

Read this week's Major Trend.

Jul 31 2018

MTI: Momentum Strengthens

  • Jul 31, 2018

A large gain in the Momentum category was almost entirely the result of a positive flip in a key market Reversal Model which had been bearish since March. While the long-term record of this model is good, its BUY signals over a forward three-to-six-month horizon have been less reliably bullish than, say, a breadth or momentum “thrust.”

Jul 24 2018

MTI: Sentiment Continues To Build

  • Jul 24, 2018

Sentiment toward stocks continues to heat up. Our S&P 500 Liquidity Premium shows that speculation in individual stocks is picking up relative to ETF trading, a negative sign. In addition, activity in stock index options shows the “smart money” rebuilding a bearish position.


Jul 17 2018

MTI Reflects High-Risk Stock Market

  • Jul 17, 2018

EPS gains, driven by the corporate tax cut, have led to improvement in several of our valuation measures, but the scope of these gains is small relative to the U.S. market’s degree of overvaluation.


Jul 10 2018

MTI: Inflation Measures Retreat

  • Jul 10, 2018

Our 52-week diffusion index on a 70-commodity basket now registers essentially neutral, while all of the non-energy commodity price sub-models have improved.

Jul 06 2018

MTI Remains Negative; Stay Defensive

  • Jul 6, 2018

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Jul 03 2018

MTI: Market Not As Healthy Under The Surface

  • Jul 3, 2018

We’d concede that neither the relative strength of Small Caps nor the divergently strong action of the NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line fit the pattern of a stock market undergoing a late-cycle period of distribution, however, the relatively low percentage of NYSE issues now trading above their 30-week moving averages (45.5%) suggests the market may not be as internally healthy as popularly portrayed.

Jun 26 2018

MTI Suggests Risks Still Elevated

  • Jun 26, 2018

After several weeks of muted movements, three MTI categories saw swings of more than 60 points. The Supply/Demand category’s loss was the biggest move, and mostly reflected commercial hedgers’ sudden unwinding of a big net-long position in stock index futures. Such action causes this important “smart money” indicator to be more in line with the DJIA’s Smart Money Flow Index, which continues to act badly.

Jun 19 2018

MTI: Market Behavior Remains Disjointed

  • Jun 19, 2018

Performance discontinuities across some of the major indexes are striking. For example, while the NASDAQ Composite is up 12% YTD, the NYSE Composite is down 1%, despite those strong A/D readings for the latter index. Today’s action leaves a similar gap between the Russell 2000 (up 10% YTD) and the DJIA (unchanged).

Jun 12 2018

MTI: Big Attitudinal Drop

  • Jun 12, 2018

The decline in the attitudinal work was fairly broad based, with a few indicators even moving back to maximum negative readings.

Jun 07 2018

MTI Now Decisively Negative

  • Jun 7, 2018

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

Jun 05 2018

MTI: Sentiment Measures Decline

  • Jun 5, 2018

A sharp loss in the Attitudinal category reflects declines in all major groupings of sentiment measures, ranging from investor opinion surveys, to fund flows, to option trading activity.

May 30 2018

MTI: Supply/Demand Measures Deteriorate

  • May 30, 2018

Supply/Demand work experienced the week’s largest category loss and reflects declines in the Smart Money Flow Index (which tracks opening and closing action in the DJIA) and in our Institutional Accumulation measure, which compares up and down volume to prevailing price action.

May 22 2018

MTI: Daily A/D Numbers Suggest Strength

  • May 22, 2018

The daily advance/decline numbers suggest the recent bounce has been broad, but analyses based on the 52-week highs and lows (including various versions of the “High/Low Logic Index”) are flashing warning signals similar to the ones seen in the fall of 2007 and summer of 2015.

May 15 2018

MTI: Stock Rally Propelled Optimism

  • May 15, 2018

Last week’s rally succeeded in driving up one of our shortest-term measures of investor optimism, while corporate tax cuts have helped generate the highest readings in the 33-year history of our earnings “breadth” work.

May 08 2018

MTI: Momentum Down Despite Market’s Weekly Gain

  • May 8, 2018

An important momentum sub-model, which considers relationships among rates-of-change for the major indexes, slipped to neutral after having been bullish since the spring of 2016. And while this model is whipsaw-prone, it’s generally on the right side of significant market breakouts or breakdowns.

May 04 2018

MTI Remained Negative During April

  • May 4, 2018

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May 01 2018

MTI: Economic Measures Improve Slightly

  • May 1, 2018

While we’ve emphasized several negative developments within the MTI’s Economic composite in recent months, not all of the evidence leans bearish. Outside of the oil patch, commodities have struggled to make a clear breakout, possibly reflecting the short-term bounce in the dollar.

Apr 24 2018

MTI: Continued Decline In Economic/Interest Rates/Inflation Category

  • Apr 24, 2018

Earnings-related measures have remained healthy, but the more heavily-weighted components related to monetary and interest rate trends continue to migrate towards the negative side of the ledger.

Apr 17 2018

MTI: Monetary And Liquidity Work Deteriorates

  • Apr 17, 2018

While we’ve always emphasized the importance of the “weight of the evidence” over the individual MTI factor categories, it’s worth highlighting some key differences between the 2018 correction (which saw a loss in the S&P 500 of 10.2% at the February 8th closing low) and the 2015-2016 S&P 500 correction of 14.2%.

Apr 10 2018

MTI: Momentum Remains Surprisingly Solid

  • Apr 10, 2018

It’s mystifying that the Momentum work has not deteriorated further during the course of this correction. Despite the -9.3% S&P 500 loss through Friday’s close, the net category reading remains at a moderately bullish level.

Apr 05 2018

MTI Turned Negative In March

  • Apr 5, 2018

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

Apr 03 2018

MTI: Second Week In Negative Zone

  • Apr 3, 2018

Based on data for the week ended March 30th, the Major Trend Index recorded a second consecutive reading in negative territory.

Mar 27 2018

MTI: Major Declines In Supply/Demand & Momentum

  • Mar 27, 2018

The Supply/Demand work plummeted last week with three unrelated “smart money” measures all showing an institutional urgency to sell into the market weakness. Such behavior is atypical of this generally “countertrend” crowd, and a decisively bearish sign.

Mar 20 2018

MTI: Momentum, Economic Categories Deteriorate

  • Mar 20, 2018

We’ve always emphasized the “weight of the evidence” rather than individual MTI category developments, but we have to concede we’re troubled by the steady deterioration in the two categories that propped up the MTI during the bull’s rally off the February 2016 lows: Momentum and Economic.

Mar 13 2018

MTI: Momentum Rebounds

  • Mar 13, 2018

The Momentum category rebounded 49 points last week, reflecting small gains across most of the quantitative chart scores…


Mar 07 2018

MTI Weakens Within Neutral Zone

  • Mar 7, 2018

The week-over-week decline was the result of big losses in Supply/Demand and Momentum/Breadth/Divergence categories. The Attitudinal category also lost ground.

Mar 07 2018

MTI Weakens Within Neutral Zone

  • Mar 7, 2018

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Feb 27 2018

MTI: Attitudinal Strengthens Further

  • Feb 27, 2018

Subjectively, we sense that investor sentiment has rebounded (too?) rapidly following the stock market’s air pocket earlier this month. Statistically, though, we’ve found that many of our sentiment measures perform better when the observations are smoothed using various moving average lengths.

Feb 21 2018

MTI: Momentum & Attitudinal Improve

  • Feb 21, 2018

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Feb 13 2018
Feb 07 2018

MTI Slides To Neutral In Early February

  • Feb 7, 2018

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