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Aug 06 2025
Estimating the Downside

Estimating the Downside - August 2025

  • Aug 6, 2025

The S&P 500’s potential downside to its 1957-to-date median is -44%, and its normalized P/E ratio of over 30x continues to be a concern. However, we can only cry “wolf” so many times… 11 of the past 14 month-end measures have been above that threshold.

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About The Author

Phil Segner / Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil Segner Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil contributes to Leuthold research publications and is the author of the Green Book's At Random.

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