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May 05 2023


  • May 5, 2023

We have no special insights into the likely depth or duration of the banking crisis, but the impact on credit has already been severe. That might seal the fate of the economic expansion. It’s worth noting that in 2008, the recession seemed to have “caused” the credit crunch—not the other way around. 

Mar 06 2020

A Real Corona-Crash In Credit

  • Mar 6, 2020

If the U.S. economy falls into recession in the months ahead, it might be the only one in history that will be remembered as having been triggered by a “black swan.”

Dec 06 2019

How Will It Be Remembered?

  • Dec 6, 2019

A way to gain perspective on the present is by trying to view it from the future. Ask yourself, “What are the signs of impending decline, now ignored by investors, that will one day be memorialized by the same investors as the most obvious in retrospect?”   

May 06 2016

“Four On The Floor”

  • May 6, 2016

Leadership, breadth, and corporate credit all staged intermediate-term breakouts, rising above their respective 40-week moving averages. In this formation, historically, S&P 500 annualized return is +15%.

Feb 06 2015

U.S. Interest Rates & Credits—Keep An Open Mind

  • Feb 6, 2015

The ease with which the 10-year yield broke the strong 185 bps barrier was simply too hard to ignore. This tells us interest rates will likely go lower before going higher. The current active range is 140-185.

Jan 08 2015

U.S. Interest Rates And Credits—Expect The Unexpected

  • Jan 8, 2015

We expect much higher volatility in interest rates this year as the market grapples with the prospect and timing of the Fed’s first rate hike.  Our base case is for the Fed to raise rates in the third quarter. There are various reasons for the Fed to be patient. Inflation will be the biggest one.  The threat of oil-related risk contagion is certainly real. We are concerned that equities have not fully priced in this threat.  

Jun 05 2014

Credit Conditions Still Good But Less-Easy Than Pre-Taper

  • Jun 5, 2014

With the Taper underway and the back-up in interest rates over the last year, credit conditions have become less-easy for some consumers and small businesses.

Oct 08 2013

Debt Ceiling—Weakness Before But Strength After Resolution

  • Oct 8, 2013

A look at prior debt ceiling debates and patterns around resolution dates gives no surprises: markets are weaker in the two weeks before but stronger in the month after a resolution is reached.

Apr 05 2011

Believe It Or Not, New Highs

  • Apr 5, 2011

Steps are falling into place for the U.S. market to climb another 15-20% into 2012.

Jul 06 2010

Risk Aversion and “Episodic” Factor Returns: Investors Favoring Conservative Characteristics

  • Jul 6, 2010

We expect risk appetites to remain low and investors to continue to reward conservative stock characteristics over the next 3-6 months.


Nov 05 2007

View From The North Country

  • Nov 5, 2007

Steve's commentary on the stock market's Wall of Worry, the oil patch and mining company squeeze, the abusurdity of corn to ethanol and the world's most valuable companies.