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Dollar

Aug 07 2020

Textual Analysis Of Fed Statements—Always Artificial, Sometimes Intelligent

  • Aug 7, 2020

We geek it up a notch and use some of the popular text-processing techniques to quantify the hawkish/dovish sentiment of the latest Fed statement. Some human “coaching” is needed in every step of the process (hence the “artificial” part). But when these tools are used properly for carefully chosen tasks, they can be quite intelligent.

Jul 08 2020

How Much For Your “Free Lunch?”

  • Jul 8, 2020

The 41% S&P 500 rally would be half as large if measured in terms of gold, and a “unit” of the S&P 500 now buys 70% fewer ounces of gold than it did in early 2000. Meanwhile, when denominated in either silver or Bitcoin, the stock market rally has been almost nonexistent.

Jun 12 2020

Keep An Eye On What Your Stocks Will Buy

  • Jun 12, 2020

News that the Bureau of Labor Statistics may have undercounted the May unemployment rate by six percentage points should remind investors of the danger of taking government economic reports too seriously. Regardless of the figure, though, unemployment is no doubt near its peak for the downturn.

Jan 07 2020

The Decade Of U.S. Exceptionalism & The Year Ahead

  • Jan 7, 2020

Two words sum up the past decade pretty nicely: U.S. Exceptionalism. The superiority of U.S. assets really comes down to the unique combination of growth (U.S. stocks), yield (U.S. bonds), and relative safety (both U.S. stocks and bonds).

Mar 07 2018

1987 Parallels (Part 2)

  • Mar 7, 2018

At the risk of yelling “fire” in a crowded theater, we present a few parallels between recent action and the year leading up to the October 1987 crash.

Aug 05 2017

A Crude Catalyst?

  • Aug 5, 2017

The great mystery behind the trade-weighted dollar’s nearly-10% YTD decline is that it’s failed to fuel further gains (or any gains) in commodity prices in 2017.

Jun 07 2017

Energy: Too Early To Bottom Fish

  • Jun 7, 2017

The gap between crude oil prices and Energy sector RS is now much wider than seen even at that historic 2014 juncture. The “divergent” weakness in Energy stocks suggests that crude will likely trade lower.

Mar 06 2017

Grappling With A Strong U.S. Dollar Outlook

  • Mar 6, 2017

Profitable investing overseas requires not one, but two, successful decisions: 1) select an outperforming asset class; and, 2) be in a currency that provides a favorable foreign exchange impact.

Feb 07 2017

Trump Trade—Pause Before More Gain

  • Feb 7, 2017

The market seemed hesitant to push the Trump trade any farther as new policies have focused on trade renegotiation and immigration, the less positive part of the policy package.

Dec 05 2014

Can The Dollar Save Small Caps?

  • Dec 5, 2014

The dollar’s moonshot in recent months has resuscitated a stock market leadership argument we haven’t heard for a long time.

Dec 05 2014

The Dollar And Foreign Equities

  • Dec 5, 2014

Xenophobia continues to be a handsomely rewarded trait for U.S.-based equity investors, with the MSCI World Ex USA Index down 3.8% YTD through December 3rd—and now (incredibly) unchanged from its May 2011 high. Comparable period gains for the S&P 500 are +12.2% YTD and  +50% from spring 2011 highs.

Nov 07 2014

U.S. Versus Foreign Stocks: More Of The Same

  • Nov 7, 2014

Long before the U.S. dollar began to rebound, the current bull market in global stocks had already favored “provincial” portfolio managers focusing solely on U.S. stocks.

Nov 07 2014

Inflation & The Dollar

  • Nov 7, 2014

Are U.S. markets for labor and capital actually getting tight?

Nov 07 2014

Stocks Vs. The Dollar—More Complicated Than You Think

  • Nov 7, 2014

The recent strength in the dollar coincided with a spike in volatility and weakness in risky assets, but the relationship over the last couple years has been tenuous at best.

Nov 07 2013

Five Reasons Inflation Is Still Missing

  • Nov 7, 2013

Overall demand slack, stubbornly low velocity of money, an overall stronger dollar, painfully low labor cost inflation and weakness in commodity prices are strong disinflationary forces.

Oct 04 2012

Gold: Twelve Years And Going Strong

  • Oct 4, 2012

A textbook, commodity-like top in gold would be a panicky, spiky event that would take the metal well above $2000.

Feb 05 2012

Reported Inflation Should Be Muted In 2012

  • Feb 5, 2012

For 2012, the reported CPI is expected to slip down to the +2% area (although items like lunches, transportation, parking and food may continue rising at close to a 10% rate).

Jul 05 2011

Inflation Pressures Continuing To Heat Up...Boosted Year End Projections

  • Jul 5, 2011

CPI rose 0.5% in May (before seasonal adjustments), down from April’s +0.6% monthly increase.

 

Jun 05 2011

Despite Falling Commodity Prices, Inflation Still Expected To Accelerate In 2011

  • Jun 5, 2011

Latest PPI month/month increase was +1.2%, however the latest report is a measure of inflation from mid March through mid April and does not include the impact of the plunge in commodity prices.

May 04 2011

Inflation Pressures Becoming More Evident

  • May 4, 2011

All three PPI measures have their six month rates of  change well above the 12 month rates, so the trend points toward even higher inflation ahead.

 

Mar 04 2011

Look Out For Rising Inflation This Year

  • Mar 4, 2011

Given global economic recovery, and Fed action meant to stimulate the U.S. economy, we expect that inflation fires will heat up significantly in 2011.

Feb 04 2011

Inflation Acceleration In 2011

  • Feb 4, 2011

By keeping interest rates at extreme lows and printing money, the Fed is trying to reflate, convincing consumers to spend, not save and investors to buy riskier assets.

Jan 05 2011

Inflation Acceleration In 2011

  • Jan 5, 2011

Commodities are on fire, and it’s not just because of the weaker dollar. Commodity prices are signaling significant pass-through inflation pressures building.

Dec 04 2010

Inflation Acceleration In 2011

  • Dec 4, 2010

We see the perceived deflation threat developing into commodity-based inflationary fears.

 

Apr 05 2006

View From The North Country

  • Apr 5, 2006

Steve presents the transcript of his April 3rd interview with Barron's Senior Editor, Sandra Ward.

Jun 04 2005

Inflation Watch

  • Jun 4, 2005

We continue to be more optimistic about the dollar than most, and believe the post election U.S. dollar weakness was overdone.

Apr 05 2005

Inflation Watch: 2005 Outlook

  • Apr 5, 2005

For now the economic expansion remains healthy, but could fade some in the second half of the year.

Mar 05 2005

2005 Outlook: High Energy Prices Will Show Up In Next CPI & PPI Reports

  • Mar 5, 2005

We estimate +3.3% real GDP growth in 2005, after weakening in the second half of the year.

Feb 05 2005

Inflation Watch: 2005 Outlook

  • Feb 5, 2005

CPI and PPI declined more than expected in December due to impact of lower energy prices.

Jan 05 2005

Looking Ahead To 2005

  • Jan 5, 2005

Continued U.S. dollar weakness could certainly be an inflation negative, but we are getting more optimistic about the dollar.

Dec 05 2004

Recent Surge In CPI/PPI Inflation Temporary, Not Sustainable

  • Dec 5, 2004

Higher oil prices and higher food prices pushed recent CPI and PPI higher. Next month’s readings will likely show less inflation with oil prices coming down some recently.

Nov 03 2004

Industrial Metals Stocks: October Brings A Wild Ride For Metals Investors

  • Nov 3, 2004

Physical metals experienced a deep sell-off on Wednesday Oct. 13th.  It was one of the largest single day drops ever in the base metals markets, prompting London metals traders to dub the day “Black Wednesday.”

Apr 05 2004

A Dollar Rally Seems To Be Underway

  • Apr 5, 2004

In last month’s “View From The North Country” Steve Leuthold outlined his case for a strong dollar. This issue, we just wanted to show the updated charts, and comment that the rally appears to have begun.

Feb 03 2004

View From The North Country

  • Feb 3, 2004

This month’s “View From The North Country” presents data showing periods where interest rates (both long T-bonds and 90 day T-bills) rose and stocks also rose. It can happen!

Jul 04 2003

Inflationary Impact Of The Falling Dollar

  • Jul 4, 2003

Much of the upward price movement in commodity prices, as measured in U.S. dollars, is the result of the weak dollar. A weaker dollar has an inflationary impact on U.S. prices.

Jul 03 2002

Do Small Caps Lead When The Dollar Is Falling?

  • Jul 3, 2002

Performance results make a case that a declining dollar may be more favorable to large caps than small caps.

Jun 05 2002

Stock Market Plays On The Falling Dollar...Some Surprises And Some Caveats

  • Jun 5, 2002

Study shows market performance not too bad over six periods when dollar is declining…..Which groups also perform in such an environment?

Jul 05 1994

View From the North Country

  • Jul 5, 1994

The dithering dollar. Did we miss our golden opportunity? Some think there is current hope for Social Security reform. Is new NASDAQ rule an uptick or upchuck? The bears are howling.

Jul 05 1994

Is Long Term U.S. Interest Rate History Really A Guide For Today?

  • Jul 5, 1994

U.S. corporations must pay almost 300 basis points more to borrow in U.S. dollars than in Swiss francs. Why is there such a difference?

Oct 05 1992

Bond Market Summary

  • Oct 5, 1992

The bond market is looking increasingly vulnerable. The economy appears to be deteriorating, inflation is nowhere in sight and short rates are declining. With all this going for it, why is the bond market stagnating?