Over a 12-month horizon, we now believe a U.S. recession is very likely, but aren’t confident enough to make the call when the forecast window is cut in half. Second-half stock returns could be decent if the business-cycle peak is still a year away. Then again, there’s peril in waiting for “too much” confirmation of recession.
While the celebration over Jerome Powell’s “Christmas Capitulation” lingered throughout February, we’re still awaiting signs the capitulation consisted of anything more than words.
Despite the late reversal in rates and the yield curve, the flattening trend of the yield curve remains intact. The fact that longer-term bond yields have fallen while the Fed is raising rates brings back memories of the “bond conundrum” episode during 2004-2006.
The global yield curve is in a sideways range bound pattern, indicating anemic demand for credit. An examination of developed and emerging countries confirms our “muddle through” view.
Doug Ramsey examines several once very reliable relationships between stocks, bonds, inflation, and commodities.