Yield Curve
Yields Might Be Throwing A Curve
While the number of recession forecasts is on the rise, there’s a general reluctance among economists to project a downturn in the absence of a yield curve inversion.
About That Great Jobs Report...
The December employment report temporarily eased fears of a severe U.S. slowdown. That’s a mystery to us.
Deep-Six The “Threes-Fives”
We’ve sometimes called the yield curve our “favorite economist,” so we were amused when some enthusiastic data miner in the Treasury market tried to slip us a cheap imitation in late November.
Beware The Policy “Narrative”
It’s been amusing to watch the narrative surrounding Fed policy evolve as the market has rallied.
Yield Curve Proxy—A Tool For Equity Investors
The increasingly greater attention given to the yield curve by equity investors has prompted us to come up with an equity basket that can track the movement of the yield curve. Overall, it does a reasonably good job of capturing the major moves.
Assessing The Correction
How do today’s cyclical conditions stack up with those accompanying other stock market declines?
What The Curve Does And Doesn’t Tell Us
The gap between the 10-year Treasury yield and the federal funds rate has narrowed sharply in the last year but remains a long way (~110 basis points) from inverting.
All Crowded Trades Are Vulnerable—Even The Yield-Curve Flattener
Bond market volatility picked up quite a bit in May but the higher-low/higher-high pattern in the 10-year yield is still intact, indicating the primary uptrend has not reversed.
U.S. Rates: Looking For A Dip
The U.S. 10-year ended the month 15 bps higher but non-U.S. bonds fared much better with bond yields in Europe and Japan 4-5 bps lower.
Anatomy Of A Flattening Cycle—Flatter For Longer
The calm appearance of the 10-year yield masked a big curve-flattening move that has accelerated the last few months.
Stocks And The Economy
The stock market is often maligned as a poor economic forecaster, and it’s true the market has predicted several more recessions than have actually occurred.
Bond Conundrum—This Time Is Not That Different
Despite the late reversal in rates and the yield curve, the flattening trend of the yield curve remains intact. The fact that longer-term bond yields have fallen while the Fed is raising rates brings back memories of the “bond conundrum” episode during 2004-2006.
Is The Yield Curve Overrated?
The U.S. yield curve has flattened in the last few months but remains a long way from inversion—an event that’s preceded each of the last eleven recessions.
Navigating The First Rate Hike
Our current view is the lift-off will be December or later. Assuming inflation will pick up and the Fed hikes the rate by the end of 2015, stocks will perform relatively well, with international stocks a better bet than U.S. stocks.
Steeper Yield Curve: All About Inflation
The steepening move in the yield curve is prevalent across many countries and is primarily driven by higher inflation expectations.
Yield Curve Too Flat? Short Term Maybe, Longer Term Probably Not.
With the Fed policy approaching actual tightening, the market is trying to price in a rate hike in the next year or so. This is a rather typical market response.
Twisty Curves
The short end of the yield curve sold-off to price in an earlier-than-expected rate hike, while the long end rallied as the prospect of tightening reduced longer-term inflation expectations.
Duration: It’s Not Just For Bonds Anymore
We measure the sensitivity of common stocks to changes in interest rates using Implied Equity Duration. Growth-oriented sectors tend to have higher duration than Value-oriented sectors, while regional differences are largely explained by interest rate and risk premium differentials.
Global Yield Curve Confirms “Muddle Through” View
The global yield curve is in a sideways range bound pattern, indicating anemic demand for credit. An examination of developed and emerging countries confirms our “muddle through” view.
Risk Contagion Underway, But There Is A Silver Lining
A Risk Contagion is now underway, and we continue to stay defensive and favor higher quality assets within the fixed income space. A silver lining: When the Risk Aversion Index moves above 1, odds start to favor a decrease in risk aversion going forward. The bulk of the move is probably done.
Market Interrelationships: “Unlearning” What We Thought We Knew
Doug Ramsey examines several once very reliable relationships between stocks, bonds, inflation, and commodities.
Demise Of The Inverted Yield Curve...Greatly Exaggerated?
Recession risks don’t disappear the day the yield curve rights itself....the “window of vulnerability” extends for quite some time.
Yield Curve Moved Positive In May, But We Are Not Out Of The Water
The yield curve has moved away from inverted status, leading many to conclude the possibility of recession has been avoided. However, a look at past recessions reveals that a reversal of an inversion typically occurs prior to the economic decline– ranging from 6 months to over a year in advance.
View From The North Country
Doug Ramsey steps in as guest commentator in this month’s “View From The North Country” to highlight what we currently see as the bullish arguments for the stock market and contrast those with the bearish arguments.
Economic Outlook
It may be difficult for the economy to prolong its expansion, with the auto and housing sectors weakening, and consumer spending a big question mark.
Economic Outlook
Continue to project higher interest rates over the next six months, particularly longer maturities. After rate hike in May, Fed’s actions will be more “data driven”.
View From The North Country
Steve presents the transcript of his April 3rd interview with Barron's Senior Editor, Sandra Ward.
Has The Yield Curve Lost Its Luster?
The traditional definition versus the new definition of an inversion...How real GDP has responded historically to past yield curve inversions….Effect of inversions on Financial stocks.
View From The North Country
The persistent rise in short term rates could have a big impact on the consumer. The rising prime rate has boosted debt service costs substantially, and “Financial Death Traps” may be on the horizon.
What Does An Inverted Yield Curve Imply For The Financials?
Conventional wisdom states that inverted yield curves are bad for Financial groups. Doug Ramsey looks at the history of past inversions.
Economic Outlook
It may be difficult for the economy to prolong its expansion, with the auto and housing sectors weakening and consumer spending a big question mark.
Is The Inverted Yield Curve Signaling An Equity Bear Market?
Jim Floyd looks at yield curve inversion as a predictor of bear markets. There is some correlation, but the relationship is far from perfect.
Economic Outlook
It may be difficult for the economy to prolong its expansion, with the auto and housing sectors weakening and consumer spending being a big question mark.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion is considered late stage.
Today's Yield Curve Inversion May Not Be Particularly Meaningful
Many economic recessions are preceded by inverted yield curves, but not all. There have been several inversions that have not immediately preceded a recession.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. Boosting bond market target yields based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. CPI inflation could continue to surprise on the upside; the economy never did hit a soft patch; and Fed may still make several more rate hikes.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. From today’s low interest rate levels, there is not much upside, but downside is significant!
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. May deficit report encouraging.
Have Falling Long Term Rates Ever Contributed To A Flattening Yield Curve Before?
Jim Floyd looks at the history of flattening yield curves. It is very rare for short rates to be rising with long rates coming down, which is what we are seeing in the current environment.