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Recession

Mar 07 2019

Unemployment And The Point Of No Return

  • Mar 7, 2019

We’ve done extensive work on the yield curve, but until now had entirely overlooked an employment-based recession indicator that’s lately come into focus.

Nov 07 2018

The Rate Hike Carnage Is All Around Us

  • Nov 7, 2018

Taking a cue from the White House, today’s market pundits seem more prone to declarative, unsubstantiated statements than we can ever remember.

Feb 07 2018

Recessions & The Stock Market

  • Feb 7, 2018

In the last couple of months, we’ve come across a handful of economic “check lists” purporting to show the relative absence of recession harbingers as the expansion closes in on its ninth anniversary this summer.

Oct 06 2017

Stocks And The Economy

  • Oct 6, 2017

The stock market is often maligned as a poor economic forecaster, and it’s true the market has predicted several more recessions than have actually occurred.

Jul 14 2017

Boom/Bust Doesn't Point to Recession

  • Jul 14, 2017

The Boom/Bust Indicator, combines a market-based measure (commodity prices) with a weekly government report on the employment situation

Jul 08 2016

Recession Watch

  • Jul 8, 2016

While we don’t see a U.S. recession on a one-year horizon, there are a handful of indicators that may force us to revisit that view—including the two relatively obscure data series shown below.

Sep 09 2015

Recession? Too Early To Call

  • Sep 9, 2015

Among the various arguments put forward by those believing the recent decline is no more than a correction, the most difficult for us to address is the common claim that “there’s no recession on the horizon.”

Sep 04 2011

Recession Or No Recession? That ISN’T The Question

  • Sep 4, 2011

Doug Ramsey provides an analysis of non-recession related bear markets. Historically, non-recession related markets are shorter in duration than recession induced bear markets, but the decline is essentially the same magnitude.

 

Oct 05 2009

Be A Buyer In An October Scare

  • Oct 5, 2009

Following a strong September, October may be a little weaker. However, readers should use any October scare to buy equities in anticipation of strong end to 2009.

 

Sep 04 2009

Lehman Remembered

  • Sep 4, 2009

Market vacuum occurred during the 4 weeks following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, when the S&P 500 dove from 1250 to 900. This occurred during the recession, but it has been the Retailers that are among the few groups that have closed that gap.

Dec 02 2008

November Market Action

  • Dec 2, 2008

Drama, if not direction, have become one of the stock market’s few certainties.

Oct 05 2008

The Beginning Of The End.....Yes, We’re Talking About The Bear Market

  • Oct 5, 2008

September was a horrible month for the stock market, but now is not the time to be selling stocks. We believe a market bottom is close at hand, and this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section presents several of our “big picture”, historical market studies to provide support for this belief.

 

Oct 05 2008

Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective

  • Oct 5, 2008

Doug Ramsey examines the history of bank failures and prior liquidity crises (back to 1830) to demonstrate that this current financial meltdown is not unprecedented. The names have changed, but the economic and emotional responses have been loosely patterned over the entire time frame.

 

Oct 05 2008

Portraits Of Declining Inflation

  • Oct 5, 2008

Jim Floyd and Steve Leuthold believe that U.S. consumer price inflation has peaked and is headed for the +3% level by mid-2009. With current headline inflation running at +5.4%, that implies there is plenty of disinflation in the pipeline.

 

May 06 2008

Economic Watch

  • May 6, 2008

Even though government statistics do not yet indicate a declining quarter of real GDP growth, we believe we are, in fact, in the grip of a recession.

Apr 05 2008

Trying To Make Sense Of Earnings

  • Apr 5, 2008

Jim Floyd tries to makes sense of earnings in the current recessionary environment.

 

 

Mar 05 2008

Bear Market Bottom This Summer?

  • Mar 5, 2008

What follows is my attempt to accentuate the positive; why the current bear market may be maturing and bottoming out sooner than you might think.

Mar 05 2008

Jobs/Consumer Data Flashing Recessionary Signals

  • Mar 5, 2008

Optimists have continuously cited low unemployment and the ever resilient U.S. consumer as two “pillars of strength” that will help keep the economy afloat. It has become considerably more difficult to make this case in recent months, as jobs and spending data have weakened to levels associated with recessions.

 

Feb 05 2008

The Economy And The Stock Market

  • Feb 5, 2008

The stock market tends to peak out 6-12 months prior to recession but turns back up prior to the end of a recession.

 

Feb 05 2008

Do You Believe In "Decoupling"

  • Feb 5, 2008

A popular buzz word in recent months is “decoupling”, often used in building a case for investing in fast growing foreign stock markets even though the U.S. economy is entering a phase of minimal economic growth or recession.

Feb 05 2008

U.S. Economy Skirts Recession In Q4, Or Does It?

  • Feb 5, 2008

It now appears that the downward bias in inflationary pressures suggested by the CPI data is tame compared to the GDP Deflator. And if this is true, investors may be operating under a false sense of security  that economic growth remains positive (albeit ever so slight).

Nov 05 2007

View From The North Country

  • Nov 5, 2007

Steve's commentary on the stock market's Wall of Worry, the oil patch and mining company squeeze, the abusurdity of corn to ethanol and the world's most valuable companies.

Jul 04 2007

2008 Recession Watch

  • Jul 4, 2007

What little discussion of a possible U.S. recession there had been in the first half of the year has dried up with an apparent pick up in the economy. “Inside The Stock Market” this month presents a 2008 Recession Watch, identifying some indicators which may prove useful in assessing the possibly of a coming recession.

Jun 05 2007

Keep An Eye On The LEI – Leading Indicators Have Topped, But Have Yet To Roll Over

  • Jun 5, 2007

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators has a proven track record of indicating when a recession may be near. Although this index has been trending sideways for quite some time, it has not yet rolled over.

Jan 04 2006

Today's Yield Curve Inversion May Not Be Particularly Meaningful

  • Jan 4, 2006

Many economic recessions are preceded by inverted yield curves, but not all. There have been several inversions that have not immediately preceded a recession.

Nov 03 2004

Keep In Front Of The Economic Curve

  • Nov 3, 2004

Stock market is a leading economic indicator, and typically turns down before the economy turns down. On average, 40% of the stock market decline occurs before the recession begins.

Apr 03 2002

Tough To Score In The First Quarter

  • Apr 3, 2002

Economy and inflation predictions on track so far in Q1, but stock market slowed by some confidence-shaking speed bumps.

Mar 05 2002

A Bumpy Road To Recovery

  • Mar 5, 2002

Market begins to shake off “Enronitis” and as economic positives continue, the next rally could come quickly. And yes, it was a recession.

Aug 04 2001

Summer Rally In August?

  • Aug 4, 2001

We were wrong about a rally in July...What about August?...Much to your family’s dismay, you may want to bring along your cell phone and laptop to the beach this month.

Jul 03 2001

What About the Recession and the Awful Earnings?

  • Jul 3, 2001

The NBER (U.S. “recession judge”) often fails to label recessions until after they are over. Sector Earnings in 2001: Estimate operating earnings for the cap weighted measures will be down 15%, maybe 20%. Expect the economy will start to stabilize by year-end, and improve in early 2002.

Apr 03 2001

The Economic Time Clock…..Recessions And The Stock Market

  • Apr 3, 2001

Recession means it is time to buy stocks. Knowing to buy stocks half way through a recession is easy. The hard part is, when the recession started, and when it might end.

Mar 05 2001

View From The North Country

  • Mar 5, 2001

Navigating safely through the current, turbulent market environment requires more experience, knowledge and training.

Feb 05 2001

Have Increased Equity Exposure

  • Feb 5, 2001

Our Aggressive Stance On Equity Exposure: Fed cuts, money supply expansion, tax cut prospects, fund inflow, and market internals.….Not all worries have gone away, however. This bear market has not followed what can be thought of as a traditional course.

Oct 05 1998

September: The Best Month of a Terrible Quarter

  • Oct 5, 1998

September the best month of a terrible quarter. October could present some opportunities.. This could be an exceptional bounce year.  Major Trend remains Negative. Recommended strategy: Maintain maximum allowable defensive equity.

Aug 05 1998

Growth...Recession Resistant - The Time Is Right

  • Aug 5, 1998

A fresh Recession Resistant screen uncovered 68 stocks - big cap companies whose earnings have held up well during the past three recessions.

Aug 05 1998

View From the North Country

  • Aug 5, 1998

Will the Asian Recession go global? “Gridlock is good", per a Jim Bianco study. Lottery mania, its history in the U.S., and potential effects on society. Also, the past suppression of women’s humor and “Northworst Airlines”.

Jul 05 1996

View From The North Country

  • Jul 5, 1996

What might change public stock market psychology? A false signal: gold stocks did not serve as a valid lead indicator for the metal in the first five months of1996. Observations from the UK: Investors still very underweighted in U.S. stocks but attitude toward U.S. market fairly positive.

Apr 05 1996

Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives

  • Apr 5, 1996

A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.

Mar 05 1996

Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives

  • Mar 5, 1996

A review of the major stock market positives and negatives as Steve currently views them. There are now six major positives and four major negatives.

Oct 05 1995

Navigating the Treacherous September, October, November Period

  • Oct 5, 1995

Weighing In: Updating positives and negatives for stocks...technology leadership is fragmenting — shifting this positive to neutral.