Skip to content
Sep 05 2025
Estimating the Downside

Estimating the Downside - September 2025

  • Sep 5, 2025

The S&P 500 notched its fourth consecutive monthly gain through August, advancing 2%. Over that span, our downside estimate for the index to return to its historical median level (1995-forward) widened from -24% to -32%.

Login

For full access, please enter your credentials.

About The Author

Phil Segner / Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil Segner Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil contributes to Leuthold research publications and is the author of the Green Book's At Random.

Perception for the Professional
September 2025 Issue

Green Book Publication Cover

Featured Articles

Sector Navigator
September 2025 Issue

Blue Book Publication Cover

Recent Tags
[ALL]

4% Club (8) Stablecoins (1) Dollar (57) Tobacco (9) Recession Dashboard (4) Fed Policy (174) Growth (121) Credit (12) Selloff (1) Recession (70) Value (132) Germany (4) Dreams and Nightmares (5) Yield Curve (86) Election (11) China (45) Easing (1) Gold (84) Market Rotation (2) CPI (171)