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Economic Conditions

Aug 12 2022

Are You Better Off Than You Were Forty Years Ago?

  • Aug 12, 2022

Old timers will recognize our title as a twist on Ronald Reagan’s clincher in the final 1980 presidential debate with Jimmy Carter.

We recalled Reagan’s line while preparing for today’s 40th anniversary of the great 1982 secular stock-market low. Investors in the S&P 500 have earned an annualized total return of +12.4% since that trough, about two percentage points above the long-term average.

Nov 04 2021

Tis The Season For Factor Tilting

  • Nov 4, 2021

Factor investing has gained wide popularity in recent years, enabled by a proliferation of smart-beta ETFs coming to market, which opened new opportunities for tactical investors. In 2018, we launched our Factor Tilt ETF strategy, and here we discuss how we’re now enhancing it by adding Seasonal Cyclicality to our analytical toolbox for evaluating factor conditions.

Oct 16 2020

Leuthold Factor Tilt Update

  • Oct 16, 2020

Factor analysis is a point of emphasis in Leuthold’s tactical research activities, and this note summarizes our Factor Tilt outlook going into the fourth quarter. Factors are return drivers such as Value, Momentum, and Quality, and research has found that factor results vary over time—but that does not mean they are random.

Jul 12 2019

Factor Tilts at Mid-Year

  • Jul 12, 2019

Factors provide investors with the ability to shift their portfolio’s characteristics to fit a particular economic and market outlook.  Value might look appealing under one set of conditions while Quality might be more desirable in another. We developed a research platform that analyzes various drivers of factor returns, summarized in Exhibit 1.