Macro Monitor
Private Credit Contagion Watch—Uncomfortably Numb
We compiled a list of indicators to watch for potential private-credit contagion, sorted into three tiers. The first tier, with the most direct private credit exposure and sensitivity to liquidity risk, is flashing a red flag; whereas the other two are graded as “cautionary” to “okay”—early signs of contagion, but not yet serious.
Recession Dashboard Update—Risk Still Low
Market-based measures are favorable, and the war-driven confidence shock has partially reversed. Despite recent volatility, the employment picture improved a bit, although full-time employment is a persistent reminder that labor market health remains fragile.
Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Higher-Risk” Signal
The favorable seasonal window is ending, at the same time that monetary easing has become less certain due to worsening inflation pressure. It’s still not time to declare the coast is all clear.
A Bottom-Up Case For Energy Stocks
Stocks in the Energy sector have massively outperformed since the Iran war onset; yet prior to that, the fundamentals in this space had already strengthened and the oil price surge is an extra bonus. Expectations have remained low while positive surprises have been delivered, making for a favorable setup.
Broken Up By War—Changing Relationships In A Changing World
For much of the last year, we’ve noted markets have persistently underpriced geopolitical risk, treating it like background noise versus a real threat. Recent events have forced a correction to that stance. Oil, in turn, has reclaimed its function as a geopolitical risk hedge—a role it had abandoned for a long time.
Goldilocks & The Three Bears
Equity market resilience against war headlines, AI disruption fears, and private credit stress have so far been largely supported by a rare “Goldilocks” macro setup. Enter the three bears: Software stocks, private credit/BDCs, and bitcoin.
Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower-Risk” Signal
While the powerful alignment of fiscal support and monetary easing continues to be favorable for risky assets, the ongoing conflict with Iran has considerably muddled the picture for the economy and inflation.
Trump’s Second First Year—Same Showmanship, Different Stage
The commencement of Trump’s two terms were separated by eight years, a global pandemic, trillions in stimulus, and the quiet burial of several macroeconomic and civic assumptions once thought indestructible. While the personalities and rhetoric remain familiar, the economic backdrop, policy constraints, and market sensitivities of 2025 bore little resemblance to those of 2017.
Risk Aversion Index: A New “Lower-Risk” Signal
Seasonality and the powerful alignment of fiscal support and monetary easing should provide a favorable backdrop.
Top Charts Of 2025 & Persistent Themes For 2026
2025 was a year where “abnormal” became the new normal. From fiscal dominance and stubborn inflation risks to renewed credit stress and a shifting global leadership map, our favorite charts from the past year reveal the forces likely to shape markets in 2026—and where the next opportunities and risks may lie.
2026 Time Cycles—Mostly Favorable
Major market indexes show largely favorable patterns for 2026, but complacency is the real risk after a rare “three-peat” in S&P 500 annual performance.
Risk Aversion Index: A New “Higher-Risk” Signal
Given the convergency of three key risks related to AI, Bitcoin, and private credit, caution is certainly warranted.
The Decades They Are A-Changin’
More than halfway through the decade, a lot of things have changed. We revisit several decade-defining charts from the 2010s and consider where these long-running trends stand today.
Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower-Risk” Signal
The favorable seasonal window is upon us and the Fed liquidity condition is poised to turn more positive.
Another Loan Bites The Dust—Macro Implications Of Bank Stocks
There is consistent evidence that bank stocks behave like macro proxies. Both domestically and in other major economies across the globe, there is a strong and steady link between lending conditions and subsequent economic activity.
Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower-Risk” Signal
Monetary and fiscal policies continue to be supportive of risky assets—and the favorable seasonal window is upon us.
Recession Dashboard Update—Low Recession Risk
The stock rally and associated wealth effect make an imminent recession less likely (data that corroborates our Up/Down Earnings figures). Yet, things can change quickly when so much is riding on the market. Employment is still the biggest threat.
Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower-Risk” Signal
With a supportive backdrop of a more accommodative Fed and expansive fiscal stance, markets have grown accustomed to spinning both good and bad news into a positive narrative. Within fixed income, we remain constructive toward higher-quality credit.
Not All Cash Is Equal—A Tale Of Two Sizes
An examination of how large- and small-cap companies allocate cash across three main uses: investment (Capex and R&D), shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks), and M&A. We further evaluate how, over time, the market rewards or penalizes each.
Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower-Risk” Signal
Inflation and bond yields, alike, remain well behaved, which is a positive for risky assets. Among fixed income, we are still constructive toward higher-quality credit.
Perception for the Professional
May 2026 Issue
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