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Green Book November 2013

Markets At Or Near Peaks, We’re Still Bullish, Now What?

How long can Small Caps lead? From a price action perspective, it’s difficult to find cracks in the bull market’s edifice. The severity of the market’s overvaluation depends on one’s historical vantage point. But some of our alternative valuation measures find the market even pricier than P/Es do. There’s no reason to run for cover if the Early Cyclicals have topped out. We look at three groups where we plugged our nose and bought. Technology Distributors purchased. We find hidden opportunities in Emerging Market Equipment & Services Providers, Coal and Natural Gas. Five reasons inflation is still missing. Ten-Year: year-end target still 250 bps, interim volatility expected. No taper until 2014, in our opinion.

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