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Green Book January 2014

Our expectations for 2014 on the economy, corporate profits and stock market leadership.   We update the historical relationship between stock and bond returns:  we expect stocks to outperform bonds going forward.   Our domestic industry group selection model outperformed the S&P in 2013; what groups look appealing in 2014?   Revisiting the “Bridesmaid” Strategy at both the asset class and equity sector levels. Emerging markets: what worked, what didn’t, and what you need to consider before investing in them.  Small Caps are selling at a 21% valuation premium relative to Large Caps- is this sustainable?  Outlook for rates - is 3% the upper bound for the 10-year?


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