Green Book January 2014
Our expectations for 2014 on the economy, corporate profits and stock market leadership. We update the historical relationship between stock and bond returns: we expect stocks to outperform bonds going forward. Our domestic industry group selection model outperformed the S&P in 2013; what groups look appealing in 2014? Revisiting the “Bridesmaid” Strategy at both the asset class and equity sector levels. Emerging markets: what worked, what didn’t, and what you need to consider before investing in them. Small Caps are selling at a 21% valuation premium relative to Large Caps- is this sustainable? Outlook for rates - is 3% the upper bound for the 10-year?