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Feb 05 2026
Estimating the Downside

Estimating the Downside - February 2026

  • Feb 5, 2026

Advances in the S&P 500’s underlying fundamentals marginally outpaced the improvement in price. Our “New-Era” downside-to-median estimate narrowed from -32% to -30%, while the 1957 to date figure was unchanged month-over-month.

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About The Author

Phil Segner / Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil Segner Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil contributes to Leuthold research publications and is the author of the Green Book's At Random.

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