Research.LeutholdGroup

The bond market bubble has popped, and forward-looking Treasury returns are no longer a disaster. We aren’t suggesting one pile into them with yields near 4% and inflation around 8%, but we think they have suffered a much more substantial de-rating than large-cap stocks.

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We’ve heard no references lately to the famous “Fed Model” for stock market valuation. We think we know why: The model’s usual proponents probably don’t like its current verdict—which is that stocks are far more expensive than at the early January market peak.

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