10-Yr/3-Mo Treasury Yield Curve
Sep
08
2023
Calibrating The Curve
Bloomberg macro strategist, Cameron Crise, noted in early September that the 10-Yr./3-Mo. Treasury-yield spread was set to exceed the old record of consecutive days (217) in negative territory. That threshold, established in 2006-07, was indeed broken on September 7th, and—with the spread still more than 100 basis points—an end to the current inversion episode is hardly on the immediate horizon.
Jul
08
2023
Maximum Inversion?
Factoring in both the duration and depth of the existing yield-curve inversion, it is considered more severe than all predecessors since the 1960s. Even Duke University yield-curve guru, Campbell Harvey, abandoned his January forecast that a recession would be avoided.