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Bounce

Jan 06 2018

2017 Was A Good Year For Playing The Bounce

  • Jan 6, 2018

The last two months of 2017 produced great results for the Bounce strategy.

Dec 07 2017

Playing The Bounce: Does The November List Bounce?

  • Dec 7, 2017

We reconstituted the November and October “Bounce” screens back to 1986 and compared their average performance versus the “non-bounce” companies. Compared with the October list, the November list shows a much weaker bounce effect.

Nov 07 2017

Playing The Bounce: The October List

  • Nov 7, 2017

Starting back in the early 1990s, The Leuthold Group began constructing and sending out an annual list of stocks that appeared to have been the subject of unusual selling pressure late in the year.

Oct 07 2015

Year-End Rebound?

  • Oct 7, 2015

We reviewed 100 years of evidence for the Dow Jones Industrials Average and found no compelling evidence for a “bounce” effect. Contrary to expectations, fourth quarter Dow performance has (on average) been stronger when the index has already booked a gain through the first nine months.

Oct 07 2015

A Good Year To Play The Bounce?

  • Oct 7, 2015

Our research shows that the best years to “Play The Bounce” are generally ones in which the stock market is heading down into the fourth quarter. We won’t rule out an allocation to the Bounce strategy in the weeks ahead.

Oct 07 2014

Playing The Bounce?

  • Oct 7, 2014

With almost 70% of NYSE stocks trading below their 30-week moving averages, there’s plenty to choose from for investors looking to “Play The Bounce” in YTD underperformers. The traditional “Bounce” season extends from October through January; with the MTI having just turned negative, though, we’d advise against putting this strategy to work immediately. Here are a couple of additional observations gleaned from more than 25 years of tracking this strategy:

Feb 07 2014

A Forgettable “Bounce” Season

  • Feb 7, 2014

The last few innings of a cyclical bull market generally favor trend or momentum-oriented strategies, rather than mean-reverting ones like “Playing The Bounce."

Jan 08 2014

January Anomalies Revisited

  • Jan 8, 2014

The January Small Cap bounce effect ain’t what it used to be, but extrapolating the month’s market action for the next eleven months is a “less bad” idea than any other time of the year.

Oct 08 2013

Playing The Bounce - With A Twist

  • Oct 8, 2013

The historical batting average of this strategy has been decent, with gains in 9 of 18 years along with “excess” returns over the S&P 500 in 10 of 18 years. The best Bounce seasons have occurred when the market was either down for the year through September, or up only modestly.

Dec 06 2012

Playing The Bounce: November Screen

  • Dec 6, 2012

Our annual screen presents the candidates with the largest declines and smallest rebounds, thus far, in each market cap segment.

 

Jan 05 2012

Playing The Bounce: Last Screen Of The Season & Historical Results

  • Jan 5, 2012

The last screen of 2011 is presented and historical November Bounce screen results are detailed.

 

Dec 06 2011

Playing The Bounce: New Methodology And Backtesting

  • Dec 6, 2011

A new screening methodology for Leuthold’s traditional “Playing The Bounce” screen is presented and examined.

Feb 04 2011

Playing The Bounce 2010—Final Scorecard

  • Feb 4, 2011

As we expected, it was not a memorable “Playing The Bounce” year.

Jan 05 2011

Playing The Bounce 2010—Final Update

  • Jan 5, 2011

As we expected, it was not a very good “Playing The Bounce” year. Many fund managers still had substantial tax loss carry forwards which they used to offset 2010 gains.

Dec 04 2010

Playing The Bounce Update

  • Dec 4, 2010

It does not look like a very good “Playing The Bounce” year. Many fund managers still have substantial tax loss carry forwards they can use to offset this year’s gains.

Nov 04 2010

Playing The Bounce Update

  • Nov 4, 2010

Not much happening with this year’s edition of “Playing The Bounce.” Initial list of qualifiers posted a loss of 1% in October, while the S&P 500 was up 3.7%.

 

Oct 05 2010

Playing The Bounce Strategy 2010: Individual Stocks and Equity Groups

  • Oct 5, 2010

“Playing The Bounce” season is once again upon us. This is a tactical trading strategy designed to identify beaten-down stocks which come under heavy selling pressure at year end. When selling abates, stocks tend to “bounce.”

Oct 05 2009

Playing The Bounce 2009—Most Of The Market Has Already Bounced

  • Oct 5, 2009

Most stocks, especially low quality stocks, have already bounced so there will be no Playing The Bounce strategy this year.

Feb 04 2009

Playing The Bounce: No Carry Through In January After Strong December

  • Feb 4, 2009

A last look at a dismal year for Playing the Bounce.

 

Jan 04 2009

Playing The Bounce Update: Big Bounce At Year End After Plunge In October

  • Jan 4, 2009

“Playing The Bounce” strategy produced impressive gains in December, but results are still negative from October introduction.

Dec 02 2008

Playing The Bounce 2008—Market Due For A Bounce In December

  • Dec 2, 2008

It may not be a very good “Playing The Bounce” year. Not very many investors or portfolio managers have capital gains to offset.

Nov 05 2008

Playing The Bounce 2008—Market Due For A Bounce In November

  • Nov 5, 2008

It may not be a very good “Playing The Bounce” year...

Oct 05 2008

Playing The Bounce 2008 - Most Of The Market Due For A Bounce

  • Oct 5, 2008

October brings our annual exercise in the “Playing The Bounce” strategy. This month’s “Inside The Stock Market” presents the initial run of stocks which may be subject to heavy tax loss selling. Traditionally, these stocks may be poised to “bounce” back early in the next year as selling pressure wanes.

 

Feb 05 2008

Playing The Bounce Final Update: Bounce Stocks Small Rally (Finally) In January

  • Feb 5, 2008

We did get a bounce stock rally in January, but it still was a disappointing bounce year overall.

 

Jan 05 2008

Playing The Bounce Update: Activated In Managed Accounts As 6% Holding

  • Jan 5, 2008

In mid-December, readers were notified via an Interim Memo of our decision to “Play The Bounce” in our managed accounts.

Dec 05 2007

Playing The Bounce 2007 Update

  • Dec 5, 2007

May “Play The Bounce” if stocks sell off in December.

Nov 05 2007

Playing The Bounce 2007 Update—Caution Advised

  • Nov 5, 2007

We have had some concerns about playing the bounce this year. The stock market has absorbed (ignored) an abundance of bad news only to move higher, placing its faith in further Fed rate cuts.

Oct 03 2007

Playing The Bounce 2007 Update—Caution Advised

  • Oct 3, 2007

It’s that time of year when we roll out the annual “Playing The Bounce” strategy.

Feb 05 2007

Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Losing Steam...Exit Strategy In Progress

  • Feb 5, 2007

This year’s Bounce faded in December and January, reversing what looked to be an excellent bounce season to just a “so-so” one.

Jan 03 2007

Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Falters In December (Individual Investor Tax Selling)

  • Jan 3, 2007

The weak December performance is to be expected, as many of these “Bounce” stocks likely came under additional selling pressure as individuals were cleaning out their portfolios at year end.

Dec 05 2006

Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Working Nicely So Far

  • Dec 5, 2006

Prior to 1992, the returns generated by this exercise were in the 15% to 20% range before being closed out in the subsequent year. 2006-2007 performance is so far on track to match or exceed this range.

Nov 05 2006

Playing The Bounce Update: We Are Now In The Traditional “Bounce” Season

  • Nov 5, 2006

Prior to 1992, the returns generated by this exercise were in the 15% to 20% range before being closed out in the subsequent year. 2006-2007 Performance is so far on track to match or exceed this range.

 

Oct 04 2006

2006 Could Be A Good “Playing The Bounce” Year

  • Oct 4, 2006

“Playing the Bounce” screening strategy details and 2006 initial “bounce” stock qualifiers.

Feb 05 2006

Playing The Bounce Update: Good Bounce In January

  • Feb 5, 2006

Small caps and large caps had a nice bounce in January, so-so for mid caps.

Jan 04 2006

Playing The Bounce 2005 Update

  • Jan 4, 2006

Good but not a great “Bounce”, so far.

Dec 04 2005

Playing The Bounce Update: Nice Bounce In November

  • Dec 4, 2005

The strong November results (across all three market caps) has now propelled the 2005 “Bounce” strategy to superior performance.

Nov 05 2005

Playing The Bounce Update: We Are Now In The Traditional “Bounce” Season

  • Nov 5, 2005

No rebound yet in the “Playing The Bounce” stocks. Could see turnaround in November.

Oct 05 2005

Playing The Bounce 2005-2006

  • Oct 5, 2005

It’s Bounce season again, and Jim Floyd and Patrick Magnusson present the preliminary list of potential stocks that may rebound after being beaten down in 2005. Consumer Discretionary stocks are most plentiful on the list.

Sep 05 2005

Heads Up....It's Almost Time To "Play The Bounce"

  • Sep 5, 2005

Buy early and avoid the December rush. 2005 stock market could be shaping up as a good year for buying the big losers, as the institutional tax selling deadline approaches (October 31st).

Feb 05 2005

Playing The Bounce Update: Bounce Was Trounced In January

  • Feb 5, 2005

Bounce stocks were trounced in January, especially small caps which plunged 19.3%.