CPI Food
Inflation Falls During/After Recessions, But Maybe Not This Time
There is a strong linkage between higher Food and Energy costs and “Core” CPI, as these higher prices filter directly to the so-called “Core” CPI categories. If Food and Energy prices remain strong we could see a reacceleration in CPI inflation this fall.
Inflation Falls During/After Recessions
Longer term, we are concerned about the rising trend of food and energy inflation.
Fed Should Be Watching Food And Energy, Not “Core” Inflation
There is a strong linkage between higher Food and Energy costs and Core CPI.
Food & Energy Inflation Has Been A Leading Indicator Of The “Core” CPI
Persistently high Food and Energy prices tend to drive the “Core” CPI inflation rate higher. These two subsets have now been in a rising pattern since the late nineties and cost pressures are forcing more and more manufacturers to raise prices.
Still On Target For +4% CPI At Year End
We expect most broad inflation measures to accelerate over the remainder of the year, including CPI, Core CPI, CPU, PPI and GDP deflator.
Inflation Outlook: Remains Worrisome
September CPI and PPI reports are likely to be much less favorable (more inflationary).
Inflation Outlook: Worrisome
We expect most broad inflation measures to accelerate over the remainder of the year.
Inflation Outlook: Worrisome
We expect most broad inflation measures to accelerate over the remainder of the year, including: CPI, Core CPI, PPI and GDP deflator.
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