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Green Book July 2013

Major Trend Moves To Neutral, But Not All Hope For The Bulls Is Lost

Rising stocks and rising rates: it’s not uncommon. Three reasons why the upside for rates is limited. For the first half of the year, the common message seems to be higher volatility and lower returns. Was the brief taper-induced pullback a sign of what’s to come? Are bonds & cyclical stocks “decoupling?” Gold’s recent weakness may be ominous for commodity investors. Low quality continues to outperform. Funds of funds, particularly target date funds, are growing rapidly and are now have a measurable impact on underlying fund flow trends. Airlines are attractive in both group models, but is overcapacity a problem for those in the Emerging Markets?

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