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Interest Rates

Aug 07 2019

The Fed Subsidy Is Wearing Off

  • Aug 7, 2019

Earnings results for the second quarter have so far "beaten" expectations (as they always seem to), but that hasn’t changed the calculus for Small Cap companies. About one-third of them have negative earnings over the last twelve months.

Jun 28 2019

Limbo Rock!

  • Jun 28, 2019

As global rates have taken a precipitous dive the last few months, it’s been hard not to hum “Limbo Rock.” And just like Chubby Checker, we’ve been asking our screens “How low can you go?” on a daily basis.

Jun 07 2019

Time For Dividend Stocks, But Stick With Quality

  • Jun 7, 2019

With multiple indicators flashing signs of an economic slowdown amid trade war uncertainty, investors are betting that an interest rate cut is on the horizon.

May 06 2019

Signs Of Spring For Financials

  • May 6, 2019

Signs of spring are popping up everywhere in the Financials sector. S&P Financials was easily the top- performing sector in April and several sub-industries have been bubbling higher in our Group Selection discipline.

Apr 18 2019

Small Caps And The Recent “Rate Hike”

  • Apr 18, 2019

The 1999 leadership parallels we discussed in the latest Green Book remain intact—U.S. over foreign, Growth over Value, and Large over Small. Small Caps have given up most of the “beta bounce” enjoyed in the first two months off the December low, with one Small Cap measure—the Russell Microcap Index (the bottom 1000 of the Russell 2000)—undercutting last year’s relative strength low and those of 2011 and 2016.

Apr 05 2019

A Confidence Game

  • Apr 5, 2019

Several consumer confidence gauges plunged in the wake of the Q4 market decline (as expected), and then rebounded in a lagged response to the stock market recovery (again, as expected). But March saw the largest one-month drop in consumers’ assessment of their “Present Situation” since 2008.

Nov 12 2018

Rates Hurting Households

  • Nov 12, 2018

Doubling of yields since 2016 has slammed households. Percentage increase in rates is more important than the absolute level.

Nov 07 2018

Measuring The Backup In Bond Yields

  • Nov 7, 2018

A couple of months ago, we (belatedly) observed that, in February the 10-year Treasury yield had bro-ken above its 10-year moving average. That simplistic tool has been a pretty good descriptor of yields’ long-term trend for more than a century, with few “whipsaw” signals along the way.

Nov 07 2018

BAA Acting Baaaadly!

  • Nov 7, 2018

Whether or not they’ve risen for the “right” reasons remains up for debate, but the upward move in interest rates has hit the usual suspects very hard in 2018, like early-cycle industries and Emerging Markets.

Nov 07 2018

The Rate Hike Carnage Is All Around Us

  • Nov 7, 2018

Taking a cue from the White House, today’s market pundits seem more prone to declarative, unsubstantiated statements than we can ever remember.

Aug 07 2018

Company Leverage And The Impact Of Rising Interest Rates

  • Aug 7, 2018

Higher corporate leverage and rising short-term interest rates have not yet led to problems in the credit markets, but investors should be mindful of potential risks.

May 04 2018

The Yin And Yang Of Utilities

  • May 4, 2018

Are Utilities defensives, or are they interest rate plays, or both? We believe the driving influence fluctuates based on market conditions, specifically fear, and the desire for protection in down markets.

Oct 05 2017

U.S. Rates: Range Intact, Bias Higher

  • Oct 5, 2017

The mini bond market sell-off in September was fueled by a string of positive developments, which should support the case for further upside in the Economic Surprise Index in the fourth quarter.

Aug 04 2017

Rates & Inflation—In The Doldrums

  • Aug 4, 2017

The U.S. 10-year yield has been stuck in a tight range. Without new major catalysts, we expect the 10-year rate to be collared in two ranges, first 215-240 and, if this is broken, the wider range of 200-260, which is more significant and much harder to break.

Jun 29 2017

Where The Bear Lingers

  • Jun 29, 2017

While the next recession could be caused by a variety of factors, we suspect the recovery will eventually end like most post-war expansions, only after a significant rise in interest rates.

Jan 07 2017

U.S. Rates—Not A Bear Market Yet

  • Jan 7, 2017

There are certainly better catalysts this time that make a bear market a distinct possibility, but until a decisive break occurs (most likely when the 10-year gets above 3%), the bull market is still intact.

Dec 07 2016

Rising Rates: Not Always A Death Knell

  • Dec 7, 2016

While the Dow Jones Bond Indicator has stood the test of time, history shows that rising bond yields are not always a bearish stock market phenomenon.

Nov 05 2016

Goodbye ZIRP, Hello WIRP

  • Nov 5, 2016

Allow us to put forth yet another theory for this season’s plummet in NFL television ratings: Fed watching is back!

Apr 07 2016

Implications Of Low Growth, Low Inflation, Low Rates

  • Apr 7, 2016

The current environment will likely persist longer than most expect which will put further downward pressure on profit margins. As margins come under pressure, companies increase leverage to prop up ROE. However, the market wants higher duration, not higher leverage.

Mar 08 2016

Big U.S. Banks: We Have A Motion, Is There A Second?

  • Mar 8, 2016

YTD the S&P 500 has fallen 2% while the S&P 500 Banking industry group is down over 12%—a shortfall that has the attention of value investors and contrarians seeking a chance to buy high-quality banking franchises at fire-sale prices.

Feb 05 2016

How Much Slack?

  • Feb 5, 2016

By now it’s consensus that the Fed missed the ideal window for the first rate hike (if one ever existed) by at least a year and a half. We don’t disagree…

Jan 08 2016

Fed Tightening: The Two-Year Anniversary?

  • Jan 8, 2016

We’ve long argued that this tightening cycle began in January 2014, the month of the first of seven tapering moves which occurred through October of that year. There’s both economic and market evidence to back up this claim.

Jan 08 2016

2016 Time Cycle—Not Likely To Be A Typical Year

  • Jan 8, 2016

The 2016 pattern looks good on paper, but if the excitement in the first week of the year is any indication, we highly doubt 2016 will turn out to be another typical election year.

Sep 08 2015

Three Questions & One Answer: From Divergence To Convergence

  • Sep 8, 2015

1) Why The Big Sell-Off In Stocks? 2) Why Didn’t Interest Rates Go Lower? 3) Why Was The Dollar Weaker?

Aug 07 2015

Minding The Gaps

  • Aug 7, 2015

We think stock market action in the next few months will provide the Fed with an excuse to skip any rate increase in 2015. But our view is a minority one, and futures’ market odds on a September increase shot up in early August. Either way, the obsession over the timing of a Fed rate hike ignores the fact that world P/E ratios are already contracting—at least on the basis of our 5-Year Normalized EPS.

Jul 08 2015

Interest Rates And Credits: At A Crossroads

  • Jul 8, 2015

The U.S. 10-year yield looks ready to re-test the ceiling of the previous downtrend...The recent weakness in oil prices brought back some very unpleasant memories from 2014. Implications for breakeven rates and credits are not so sanguine...We are at a crossroads and a cautious stance is warranted.

 

Jul 08 2015

A Venerable Monetary Indicator Turned Negative

  • Jul 8, 2015

The smoothed, 26-week rate-of-change in the DJ Corporate Bond Index, a reliable indicator of monetary conditions over many different market and economic cycles, turned negative in mid-June.

Jul 08 2015

Navigating The First Rate Hike

  • Jul 8, 2015

Our current view is the lift-off will be December or later. Assuming inflation will pick up and the Fed hikes the rate by the end of 2015, stocks will perform relatively well, with international stocks a better bet than U.S. stocks.

Jun 05 2015

Don’t Fight The Fed?

  • Jun 5, 2015

While our stock market disciplines (including the Major Trend Index) are nominally bullish, we’re mentally gearing up to do something in the near future that was once considered ill-advised: Fighting the Fed.

Feb 06 2015

U.S. Interest Rates & Credits—Keep An Open Mind

  • Feb 6, 2015

The ease with which the 10-year yield broke the strong 185 bps barrier was simply too hard to ignore. This tells us interest rates will likely go lower before going higher. The current active range is 140-185.

Jan 08 2015

U.S. Interest Rates And Credits—Expect The Unexpected

  • Jan 8, 2015

We expect much higher volatility in interest rates this year as the market grapples with the prospect and timing of the Fed’s first rate hike.  Our base case is for the Fed to raise rates in the third quarter. There are various reasons for the Fed to be patient. Inflation will be the biggest one.  The threat of oil-related risk contagion is certainly real. We are concerned that equities have not fully priced in this threat.  

Oct 06 2014

Interest Rates & Currencies: It’s Complicated

  • Oct 6, 2014

The recent sudden strength in the dollar is mostly attributable to the divergent central bank policies. This supports a bullish dollar outlook over the medium term.

May 07 2014

10-Year Yield: More Downside

  • May 7, 2014

We expect the 245-250 barrier to be tested, and if it is decisively broken, much lower yields could be in the cards.

Sep 10 2013

Data Dependency—September Taper Still Likely

  • Sep 10, 2013

More upside surprises are still likely and, despite the disappointing jobs report, the overall economic picture still supports a September taper. The improving economic picture is not just happening within the U.S., but in other major countries. We still believe the upside for the U.S. 10-year is limited.

Aug 07 2013

The Dollar: Upside Limited In The Near Term

  • Aug 7, 2013

A closer look at the dollar’s two main counterparts, the euro and the yen, reveals a regime shift in both cases, but for different reasons.

Aug 07 2013

10-Year: Taper the Taper—Upside Limited

  • Aug 7, 2013

If interest rates keep going higher from here, we would run the risk of derailing a still-fragile recovery. As long as the Fed tapering uncertainty exists, we expect higher volatility on the 10-year yield to persist in the mean time.

Jul 08 2013

Rising Stocks And Rising Rates: It’s Not Uncommon

  • Jul 8, 2013

Today may feel different, but it isn’t. The past 13 months’ trading action in the U.S. is the second example of this phenomenon in the current (2009-to-date) cyclical bull market. We focus on 11 previous episodes for perspective. Plus we clarify recent thoughts on interest rates and stock market valuations.

Jun 07 2013

Timing The “Taper”

  • Jun 7, 2013

The new debate over the QE “taper” erupted at the same time that a long-reliable Fed-tracking tool is telling us it’s time to ease.

Mar 06 2013

Of Special Interest: Valuing The Stock Market - Do Interest Rates Matter?

  • Mar 6, 2013

Models based on so-called relative valuations have a poor track record in practice, having misled investors at several historic inflection points. Interest rates have virtually no impact on stock market valuations, but they may have transitory effects on stocks in the short term.

Dec 06 2012

The State Of Interest Rates

  • Dec 6, 2012

We think interest rates will stay low for an extended period of time, so the key question is, when will rates start rising?