Interest Rates
Monetary Madness
We always do our own work and draw our own conclusions. Lately, though, we’ve wondered what the late “Monetary Marty” Zweig might say about the stock market’s current liquidity backdrop.
The Fed Subsidy Is Wearing Off
Earnings results for the second quarter have so far "beaten" expectations (as they always seem to), but that hasn’t changed the calculus for Small Cap companies. About one-third of them have negative earnings over the last twelve months.
Limbo Rock!
As global rates have taken a precipitous dive the last few months, it’s been hard not to hum “Limbo Rock.” And just like Chubby Checker, we’ve been asking our screens “How low can you go?” on a daily basis.
Time For Dividend Stocks, But Stick With Quality
With multiple indicators flashing signs of an economic slowdown amid trade war uncertainty, investors are betting that an interest rate cut is on the horizon.
Signs Of Spring For Financials
Signs of spring are popping up everywhere in the Financials sector. S&P Financials was easily the top- performing sector in April and several sub-industries have been bubbling higher in our Group Selection discipline.
Small Caps And The Recent “Rate Hike”
The 1999 leadership parallels we discussed in the latest Green Book remain intact—U.S. over foreign, Growth over Value, and Large over Small. Small Caps have given up most of the “beta bounce” enjoyed in the first two months off the December low, with one Small Cap measure—the Russell Microcap Index (the bottom 1000 of the Russell 2000)—undercutting last year’s relative strength low and those of 2011 and 2016.
A Confidence Game
Several consumer confidence gauges plunged in the wake of the Q4 market decline (as expected), and then rebounded in a lagged response to the stock market recovery (again, as expected). But March saw the largest one-month drop in consumers’ assessment of their “Present Situation” since 2008.
Rates Hurting Households
Doubling of yields since 2016 has slammed households. Percentage increase in rates is more important than the absolute level.
Measuring The Backup In Bond Yields
A couple of months ago, we (belatedly) observed that, in February the 10-year Treasury yield had bro-ken above its 10-year moving average. That simplistic tool has been a pretty good descriptor of yields’ long-term trend for more than a century, with few “whipsaw” signals along the way.
BAA Acting Baaaadly!
Whether or not they’ve risen for the “right” reasons remains up for debate, but the upward move in interest rates has hit the usual suspects very hard in 2018, like early-cycle industries and Emerging Markets.
The Rate Hike Carnage Is All Around Us
Taking a cue from the White House, today’s market pundits seem more prone to declarative, unsubstantiated statements than we can ever remember.
Company Leverage And The Impact Of Rising Interest Rates
Higher corporate leverage and rising short-term interest rates have not yet led to problems in the credit markets, but investors should be mindful of potential risks.
The Yin And Yang Of Utilities
Are Utilities defensives, or are they interest rate plays, or both? We believe the driving influence fluctuates based on market conditions, specifically fear, and the desire for protection in down markets.
U.S. Rates: Range Intact, Bias Higher
The mini bond market sell-off in September was fueled by a string of positive developments, which should support the case for further upside in the Economic Surprise Index in the fourth quarter.
Rates & Inflation—In The Doldrums
The U.S. 10-year yield has been stuck in a tight range. Without new major catalysts, we expect the 10-year rate to be collared in two ranges, first 215-240 and, if this is broken, the wider range of 200-260, which is more significant and much harder to break.
Where The Bear Lingers
While the next recession could be caused by a variety of factors, we suspect the recovery will eventually end like most post-war expansions, only after a significant rise in interest rates.
U.S. Rates—Not A Bear Market Yet
There are certainly better catalysts this time that make a bear market a distinct possibility, but until a decisive break occurs (most likely when the 10-year gets above 3%), the bull market is still intact.
Rising Rates: Not Always A Death Knell
While the Dow Jones Bond Indicator has stood the test of time, history shows that rising bond yields are not always a bearish stock market phenomenon.
Goodbye ZIRP, Hello WIRP
Allow us to put forth yet another theory for this season’s plummet in NFL television ratings: Fed watching is back!
Implications Of Low Growth, Low Inflation, Low Rates
The current environment will likely persist longer than most expect which will put further downward pressure on profit margins. As margins come under pressure, companies increase leverage to prop up ROE. However, the market wants higher duration, not higher leverage.
Big U.S. Banks: We Have A Motion, Is There A Second?
YTD the S&P 500 has fallen 2% while the S&P 500 Banking industry group is down over 12%—a shortfall that has the attention of value investors and contrarians seeking a chance to buy high-quality banking franchises at fire-sale prices.
How Much Slack?
By now it’s consensus that the Fed missed the ideal window for the first rate hike (if one ever existed) by at least a year and a half. We don’t disagree…
Fed Tightening: The Two-Year Anniversary?
We’ve long argued that this tightening cycle began in January 2014, the month of the first of seven tapering moves which occurred through October of that year. There’s both economic and market evidence to back up this claim.
2016 Time Cycle—Not Likely To Be A Typical Year
The 2016 pattern looks good on paper, but if the excitement in the first week of the year is any indication, we highly doubt 2016 will turn out to be another typical election year.
Three Questions & One Answer: From Divergence To Convergence
1) Why The Big Sell-Off In Stocks? 2) Why Didn’t Interest Rates Go Lower? 3) Why Was The Dollar Weaker?
Minding The Gaps
We think stock market action in the next few months will provide the Fed with an excuse to skip any rate increase in 2015. But our view is a minority one, and futures’ market odds on a September increase shot up in early August. Either way, the obsession over the timing of a Fed rate hike ignores the fact that world P/E ratios are already contracting—at least on the basis of our 5-Year Normalized EPS.
Interest Rates And Credits: At A Crossroads
The U.S. 10-year yield looks ready to re-test the ceiling of the previous downtrend...The recent weakness in oil prices brought back some very unpleasant memories from 2014. Implications for breakeven rates and credits are not so sanguine...We are at a crossroads and a cautious stance is warranted.
A Venerable Monetary Indicator Turned Negative
The smoothed, 26-week rate-of-change in the DJ Corporate Bond Index, a reliable indicator of monetary conditions over many different market and economic cycles, turned negative in mid-June.
Navigating The First Rate Hike
Our current view is the lift-off will be December or later. Assuming inflation will pick up and the Fed hikes the rate by the end of 2015, stocks will perform relatively well, with international stocks a better bet than U.S. stocks.
Don’t Fight The Fed?
While our stock market disciplines (including the Major Trend Index) are nominally bullish, we’re mentally gearing up to do something in the near future that was once considered ill-advised: Fighting the Fed.
U.S. Interest Rates & Credits—Keep An Open Mind
The ease with which the 10-year yield broke the strong 185 bps barrier was simply too hard to ignore. This tells us interest rates will likely go lower before going higher. The current active range is 140-185.
U.S. Interest Rates And Credits—Expect The Unexpected
We expect much higher volatility in interest rates this year as the market grapples with the prospect and timing of the Fed’s first rate hike. Our base case is for the Fed to raise rates in the third quarter. There are various reasons for the Fed to be patient. Inflation will be the biggest one. The threat of oil-related risk contagion is certainly real. We are concerned that equities have not fully priced in this threat.
Interest Rates & Currencies: It’s Complicated
The recent sudden strength in the dollar is mostly attributable to the divergent central bank policies. This supports a bullish dollar outlook over the medium term.
10-Year Yield: More Downside
We expect the 245-250 barrier to be tested, and if it is decisively broken, much lower yields could be in the cards.
Data Dependency—September Taper Still Likely
More upside surprises are still likely and, despite the disappointing jobs report, the overall economic picture still supports a September taper. The improving economic picture is not just happening within the U.S., but in other major countries. We still believe the upside for the U.S. 10-year is limited.
The Dollar: Upside Limited In The Near Term
A closer look at the dollar’s two main counterparts, the euro and the yen, reveals a regime shift in both cases, but for different reasons.
10-Year: Taper the Taper—Upside Limited
If interest rates keep going higher from here, we would run the risk of derailing a still-fragile recovery. As long as the Fed tapering uncertainty exists, we expect higher volatility on the 10-year yield to persist in the mean time.
Rising Stocks And Rising Rates: It’s Not Uncommon
Today may feel different, but it isn’t. The past 13 months’ trading action in the U.S. is the second example of this phenomenon in the current (2009-to-date) cyclical bull market. We focus on 11 previous episodes for perspective. Plus we clarify recent thoughts on interest rates and stock market valuations.
Timing The “Taper”
The new debate over the QE “taper” erupted at the same time that a long-reliable Fed-tracking tool is telling us it’s time to ease.
Of Special Interest: Valuing The Stock Market - Do Interest Rates Matter?
Models based on so-called relative valuations have a poor track record in practice, having misled investors at several historic inflection points. Interest rates have virtually no impact on stock market valuations, but they may have transitory effects on stocks in the short term.