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Green Book November 2022

A 2022 Trifecta?

Our Major Trend Index has four factor categories, and three of them (Valuation, Cyclical, Technical) remain negative. Yes, the bearish “trifecta.”  If that sounds like a reprint of one of our Monday MTI memos, bear with us (pun intended). We thought the MTI—with over 125 inputs—was pretty exhaustive. It turns out that it’s lacking entire categories pertinent to stock market action:

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Gold (84) Dollar (56) Easing (1) CPI (171) Market Rotation (2) Election (10) Inflation (585) Recession (69) Value (131) Growth (119) Factor Performance (18) Japan (48) Yen (7) Wealth Effect (9) Bank Lending (1) Resession (1) Time Cycles (6) Breakeven Rate (1) Oil (48) Treasuries (79)