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Nov 07 2025
Estimating the Downside

Estimating the Downside - November 2025

  • Nov 7, 2025

At the market trough back on April 8th, using history from 1995 forward, our downside-to-median calculation showed a potential loss of 13% for the S&P 500. Today, that risk measure sits at -34%, a contemporary extreme.

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About The Author

Phil Segner / Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil Segner Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil contributes to Leuthold research publications and is the author of the Green Book's At Random.

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