After narrowly averting a bear market in April, the S&P 500 rocketed 39% to end the year with an +18% total return. At present, our data shows the potential downside to revert to median levels is a loss of 44%.
Jan
07
2026
Estimating the Downside - January 2026
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Perception for the Professional
January 2026 Issue
Featured Articles
- Three-Peat & The Risky Trinity
- S&P 500: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
- A State Of Perpetual Bliss
- Low Enough For Low Vol?
- Factor Fundamentals
- 2026 Time Cycles—Mostly Favorable
- Annual Asset Class & Sector Bridesmaids
- Leuthold’s Industry Group “Dreams” And “Nightmares”—Annual Update
- 2025 Cheapskate Sector
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January 2026 Issue
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