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Jul 07 2026
Estimating the Downside

Estimating the Downside - July 2026

  • Jul 7, 2026

The S&P 500’s sharp Q2 rally ended with a whimper, as the index shed 1% in June. Still, since the end of March, the 15% gain translates to the S&P 500’s best quarter since Q2-2020. From here, the index would lose 44% if it moved back to its median level based on data from 1957 forward.

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About The Author

Phil Segner / Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil Segner Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil is a Co-Portfolio Manager and Sr. Research Analyst at The Leuthold Group, LLC. He is a member of the asset allocation and investment committees and is a major contributor to the firm's research publications.

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