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Annual Cycle

Mar 07 2023

Why NASDAQ’s Gains Are A Disappointment

  • Mar 7, 2023

The run-up in Tech and the NASDAQ has been impressive, but their relative strength in recent months might be considered substandard from a “cyclically-adjusted” perspective.

Apr 07 2022

Cycles: A Key “Window” Is Approaching

  • Apr 7, 2022

Next month kicks off the seasonally-weak phase of the stock market’s Annual Cycle: May-October. Overlaid on that is the statistically vulnerable stretch of the four-year Election Cycle: the “mid-point” of the Mid-Term Year. There’s a positive way to spin this mid-term malaise: The cycles imply that an ideal window for a major low is about to open.

May 07 2014

Two Market Anomalies Intact: A Quantitative Review

  • May 7, 2014

We are entering the most bearish window among the potential combinations of the Presidential Election Cycle and the Annual Cycle.

May 07 2014

A Quick Take On Time Cycles

  • May 7, 2014

We stop short of embracing any sort of fixed stock market time cycle, but it's statistically difficult to discredit certain calendar patterns.

Sep 03 2010

Pinpointing The True “Mean Season” For U.S. Stocks

  • Sep 3, 2010

We turn our attention to the domestic equity markets to determine where market history has hidden its seasonal landmines.