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Feb 06 2020

A Storied Bubble’s Pearl Anniversary

  • Feb 6, 2020

The decade of the teens has given way to the decade of the twenties and “year in review” retrospectives are in the books, but as the calendar’s last digit rolls from 9 to 0 we consider one more anniversary worth remembering.

Aug 04 2016

Policies Trump Politics

  • Aug 4, 2016

We find ourselves in the twilight period where the impact of a rate hike might be waning, while the potential election-year impact might be gaining more influence.

Feb 07 2014

Can The EM Problem Spread To DM? Yes, If It Gets Bad Enough

  • Feb 7, 2014

The current EM weakness is not yet a full-blown crisis but, if it does become one, it will drag down developed economies too.

Sep 10 2013

Data Dependency—September Taper Still Likely

  • Sep 10, 2013

More upside surprises are still likely and, despite the disappointing jobs report, the overall economic picture still supports a September taper. The improving economic picture is not just happening within the U.S., but in other major countries. We still believe the upside for the U.S. 10-year is limited.

Feb 06 2013

The Weakening Yen — Too Far Too Fast

  • Feb 6, 2013

We are highly skeptical “Abenomics” can produce different results this time.

Oct 04 2012

QE3 Is Ill-timed And Should’ve Been Saved For A Greater Risk Event

  • Oct 4, 2012

What is the Fed going to do if another risk event hits and the S&P goes down 15-20%? Pray?


Aug 04 2011

It’s The Economy, Stupid

  • Aug 4, 2011

U.S. likely averted worst-case scenario of default, but credit rating downgrade is still likely. Main impact of downgrade is not the increase in interest rates itself, but rather the liquidity risk in all markets that involve treasury securities as collateral.


Dec 04 2010

The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On Style Factors

  • Dec 4, 2010

Chun Wang examines QE I & II in Japan, along with the initial QE in the U.S., to see how various quantitative factors have reacted in the past. While some factors may prove effective, the main difference between these past QE experience and the latest round is the macro conditions of the market.


Dec 05 2006

Update On Japan...Holding Our Positions, But Watching Closely

  • Dec 5, 2006

Recent market action appears to be indicating that cyclical forces have, for the time being, put Japan’s stock market recovery on hold.


Sep 05 2006

View From The North Country

  • Sep 5, 2006

Even before Major Trend Index improved to Neutral, Leuthold was getting more bullish. Also, Is the Sun Rising or is it Setting on Japan?


Jun 05 2006

Update On Japanese Stock Market...Has Our Bullish Outlook Changed?

  • Jun 5, 2006

Notwithstanding the market action in the most recent month, in the longer term we suspect that the Japanese stock market might be less vulnerable than other regions and countries of the world (including the U.S.).

Feb 05 2006

Initiated A Position In Japanese Equities

  • Feb 5, 2006

Used market weakness in Tokyo to begin building position in Japanese equities.

Nov 05 2005

Turning Japanese? A Look At The Rally In Japan Shares And How To Play The Turnaround

  • Nov 5, 2005

A look at the rally in Japan shares, and how to potentially play a turnaround.

Sep 03 2003

Japanese ADRs...Rising Suns

  • Sep 3, 2003

A brief recap of our reasons for a bullish outlook on Japan’s stock market.

Aug 05 2003

Japanese ADRs...Update

  • Aug 5, 2003

A brief recap of our reasons for a bullish outlook on Japan’s stock market.

Jul 04 2003

Saving Face...Is Japan Finally A Turnaround Play?

  • Jul 4, 2003

Japan appears to be getting its fiscal house in order. Opportunity may be developing here. We constructed a list of potential Japanese ADRs, and built an index to monitor the situation.

Aug 04 2001

View From The North Country

  • Aug 4, 2001

Full Disclosure (Reg FD), Investment Banking conflicts (hardly a recent development) and the Nikkei and DJIA: Will they cross this year?

Jul 04 1998

The Asian Grand Opportunity...Buy On Weakness

  • Jul 4, 1998

Small addition to Emerging Country Funds in both port­folios with purchase of Greater China Fund.

Mar 05 1998

Worth Noting

  • Mar 5, 1998

Steve’s thoughts on 1998 Stock Market Leadership, Volatility, Japan, Gold and Inflation.

May 05 1997

View from the North Country

  • May 5, 1997

Human behavior demonstrates that individuals as a group are risk averse…studies of investor behavior have yielded some interesting findings. Also, Japanese low interest rates in themselves have not yet converted caution and pessimism into confidence and optimism.

Aug 05 1995

Worth Noting

  • Aug 5, 1995

Steve’s notes on revising the GDP calculation, market implications of discount rate cut, stock market capitalization as a percentage of the GDP and more.

Jul 05 1995

What Might Change Today’s Bullish Psychology?

  • Jul 5, 1995

The basic question is, what might motivate the Teflon market to initially suffer a period of weakness?

Apr 05 1993

Japanese Global Companies

  • Apr 5, 1993

A month ago, we noted that our long term momentum work indicated the Tokyo stock market might be in a bottoming process and if this work was correct, these Japanese Globals (all with U.S. ADRs) could be great buys.

Sep 05 1992

Is It Time To Buy Japanese Stocks?

  • Sep 5, 1992

A pullback to 16000 or thereabouts could trigger some action on our part. One possible strategy we have discussed is an ADR package of major exporters.

May 05 1992

View from the North Country

  • May 5, 1992

Please “bear” with us….Polling the Pros in April…Catch a Falling Knife (Investing in Japan)…Nuclear Power: Cheap & Clean?

Apr 05 1992

Japan: Buy For A Rally (Maybe More)

  • Apr 5, 1992

One of the great bubbles of all time continues to deflate. The Japanese stock market, as measured by the Nikkei Index is now down 53% from its December 1989 peaks. The P/E for the Nikkei has fallen from its 1987 peak of 68 to its current level of 30 (trailing 12 month earnings), a decline of 56%.

Sep 05 1991

View from the North Country

  • Sep 5, 1991

Playing The Game (Investment Management): Some Insights and Criticisms From Walter Cabot Of Standish Ayer & Wood...Tokyo Stock Market Update...Gasoline Prices Are Historically Cheap When Adjusted For Inflation...Country By Country Union Membership Statistics

Aug 01 1990

Unconventional Asset Allocation Model Buys Nikkei Put Warrants

  • Aug 1, 1990

As readers know, we have been bears on Tokyo stocks for several years. But we were early in the past. Recent action leads us to believe the bubble may finally have burst, with the remarkable levitation act about over.

Jun 04 1990

View from the North Country

  • Jun 4, 1990

"Gorby" Visits The Leuthold Group...Graying Of America And The Pension And Related Services Business...Client Feedback On Japan...California Real Estate Update

May 01 1990

View from the North Country

  • May 1, 1990

What’s Up In Japan...Not High on Northwest Airlines...The Good Guys Are Leaving (Office)...Fat Is Where It’s At (Fearless Forecast)...Harley Davidson (Model Portfolio Stock) Introduces New Fat Boy Bike...Phony Evel Knutson Communique Surfaces!

Jul 01 1988

View from the North Country

  • Jul 1, 1988

Update on Client and “Street” Reaction to Neil Dolinsky’s Sell Report on Tele-Communications...Japanese Stock Market Update...Health Care Industry: Why Are Costs Skyrocketing?

Jul 01 1988

Japan Becomes Aggressive

  • Jul 1, 1988

Japan is clearly becoming more assertive and aggressive in its dealings with other countries. Economic muscle instills confidence. Larry Jeddeloh provides his observations and comments on the Japanese real estate invasion of Hawaii.

May 01 1988

View from the North Country

  • May 1, 1988

U.S. Politics and Fiscal Responsibility…The Japanese Stock Market…Aussie Bond Update

Feb 07 1988

View From The North Country

  • Feb 7, 1988

here is a lot to write about this issue, including a number of equity portfolio changes and shifting sector strategies. But this publication must also uphold a cherished February tradition.

Dec 01 1987

View from the North Country

  • Dec 1, 1987

The Outlook - A Summary of Current Views…Faulty Recollection of 1929…A Crash Still Waiting To Happen…December Bottom Fishing Time…Aussie Bonds…The Leuthold Group Eats Some Garlic

Aug 01 1987

View from the North Country

  • Aug 1, 1987

Bring on the Mystics, Special Situation Research...Correction, Correction, Australian Bonds...The Right Guys Won, The Japan Factor

Aug 01 1987

The Fireworks in July: Some Shooting Stars and Some Duds

  • Aug 1, 1987

Well, I have to admit it, this writer counts himself as one of the befuddled. Based on the calls in late June, a number of clients are also in the peer group. So, in terms of the shorter-term market outlook, I’m afraid it is a case of the befuddled leading the befuddled...or not leading the befuddled?

Jun 01 1987

View from the North Country

  • Jun 1, 1987

Doing the MTA and FAF conferences in May....The polite nods and smiles are waning as the Japanese come to increasingly believe they are scapegoats for America’s economic woes...Even though we think the currency play in the Australian dollar may be played out for a while, the high yields in themselves are very attractive. All in all, we find Aussie bonds to be a comfortable investment area these days.

May 01 1987

View from the North Country

  • May 1, 1987

Thoughts from the airplane…Two pictures of gold…Is finding values in this market “Mission Impossible?”

Apr 01 1987

Japan Investors Are Not Forever

  • Apr 1, 1987

A number of factors have, in recent months, combined to create strong Japanese demand for U.S. equities, especially the known recognizable U.S. names. But keep in mind, attitudes and current conditions can change almost overnight.