More upside surprises are still likely and, despite the disappointing jobs report, the overall economic picture still supports a September taper. The improving economic picture is not just happening within the U.S., but in other major countries. We still believe the upside for the U.S. 10-year is limited.
Notwithstanding the market action in the most recent month, in the longer term we suspect that the Japanese stock market might be less vulnerable than other regions and countries of the world (including the U.S.).
One of the great bubbles of all time continues to deflate. The Japanese stock market, as measured by the Nikkei Index is now down 53% from its December 1989 peaks. The P/E for the Nikkei has fallen from its 1987 peak of 68 to its current level of 30 (trailing 12 month earnings), a decline of 56%.
here is a lot to write about this issue, including a number of equity portfolio changes and shifting sector strategies. But this publication must also uphold a cherished February tradition.
Well, I have to admit it, this writer counts himself as one of the befuddled. Based on the calls in late June, a number of clients are also in the peer group. So, in terms of the shorter-term market outlook, I’m afraid it is a case of the befuddled leading the befuddled...or not leading the befuddled?
Doing the MTA and FAF conferences in May....The polite nods and smiles are waning as the Japanese come to increasingly believe they are scapegoats for America’s economic woes...Even though we think the currency play in the Australian dollar may be played out for a while, the high yields in themselves are very attractive. All in all, we find Aussie bonds to be a comfortable investment area these days.