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Bear Market Rally

Apr 07 2020

Did The 20% Bounce Kill The Bear?

  • Apr 7, 2020

We rolled our eyes when Barron’s and others proclaimed a “new bull market” after a three-day, 21% surge off the March low. That incredible bounce is much more likely to be the first of at least a few bear market rallies.

Apr 05 2019

A Confidence Game

  • Apr 5, 2019

Several consumer confidence gauges plunged in the wake of the Q4 market decline (as expected), and then rebounded in a lagged response to the stock market recovery (again, as expected). But March saw the largest one-month drop in consumers’ assessment of their “Present Situation” since 2008.

Mar 07 2019

Yet Another Anniversary?

  • Mar 7, 2019

We received two media calls in December hoping we would comment for upcoming special features about the tenth anniversary of the bull market. We rolled our eyes.

Jan 18 2019

Sizing Up The Rally

  • Jan 18, 2019

There’s an old saying that bear market rallies look better than the real thing, yet the upswing off December lows looks even better than the typical bear market rally.

May 06 2016

Sizing Up The Rally

  • May 6, 2016

While our MTI became bullish in mid-April, we can’t rule out that the rebound from February lows could be an impressive bear market rally. However, this rally sports impressive technical credentials.

Mar 08 2016

Bear Market Rally Or New Upswing?

  • Mar 8, 2016

Richard Russell—who wrote Dow Theory Letters for almost 60 years before his death last year—observed that “bear market rallies look better than the real thing.”

Mar 08 2016

Labeling The New Up-Leg

  • Mar 8, 2016

The short-term market surge certainly possesses the hallmarks of many previous bear-killers (or correction-killers)…but it also sports the look of many historical bear market rallies.

Nov 04 1998

Bear Market Rally or Bull Market?

  • Nov 4, 1998

Major Trend Index improved to Neutral but not offering any guidance as to whether this is a bear market rally or a bull market.

Sep 06 1984

New Bull? Second Leg?.....Or Bear Market Rally?

  • Sep 6, 1984

This move now appears to be a “second” leg, not an extraordinarily large bear market rally and not a new cyclical bull market.

Aug 02 1984

So, What Happened?

  • Aug 2, 1984

Hopefully clients read the late July Interim memos. Truthfully, the move is a tad more than expected. What now? The last calculation of the Major Trend Index produced a still negative but improved reading. A new reading will be available August 7. Just a huge rally or a new bull market? I think it’s the latter, but want confirmation from our Major Trend Index.