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Bull Market

Sep 08 2018

The Commodity Bull That Equity Investors Missed...

  • Sep 8, 2018

While the bottom-line impact may ultimately be the same, there’s one thing we find more demoralizing than getting the direction of an asset wrong: getting the direction right and not getting paid for it.

Jul 07 2018

Where’s The Spring In The Step?

  • Jul 7, 2018

Old age alone may not kill the bull, but it can make it more susceptible to an array of life-threatening maladies.

May 05 2018

A New Hurdle For An Old Bull?

  • May 5, 2018

The first quarter S&P 500 earnings “beat” rate stands to be the highest in history, as any CEO with a pulse has learned to lower the hurdle.

Apr 06 2018

This Is A Head-Scratcher

  • Apr 6, 2018

The longest and probably most complex bull market in history is not going to make a clean and decisive exit.

Mar 07 2018

Nine Corrections In Nine Years

  • Mar 7, 2018

The stock market’s nine-day decline off its January 26th high met our definition of an intermediate correction—an S&P 500 loss of between 7-12%.

Jan 19 2018

Late In Bull Market, But Not Terminal

  • Jan 19, 2018

The bull market continues to behave like one that’s in a late—but not terminal—phase. After a stumble late last year, the Momentum leaders have already reasserted their dominance, opening up a four percent lead on the Value stocks YTD after crushing them in 2017.

 

Aug 05 2017

Cashing In A Few Chips

  • Aug 5, 2017

Through early August, the S&P 500 had matched last year’s total return gain of 12%, while futures on that index have gained more than 20% from their after-hours lows made on election night.

Mar 07 2017

A “Good Year” To Start The Year

  • Mar 7, 2017

The S&P 500 was up 6.4% YTD through March 3rd, a bit above its average annualized gain of 5.9% since 1926. In other words, 2017 would be a good year if the books were closed today.

Feb 24 2017

Bull Market Continuation Signal?

  • Feb 24, 2017

The stock market looks overbought on virtually every technical measure we can think of, but an overbought condition doesn’t always mean the market is vulnerable. To the contrary, we’ve found that “initial” overbought readings—like the one triggered last week on the S&P 500’s 14-Week Relative Strength Index—are generally followed by above-average gains in the intermediate-term (Chart).

Feb 07 2017

Stock Market Observations

  • Feb 7, 2017

The Major Trend Index stabilized in a moderately bullish range during the past several weeks, yet the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category is almost the sole carrier of the bullish torch.

Dec 08 2015

Tracking The Stock Market Top

  • Dec 8, 2015

While the sequence of index peaks traced out YTD is not exactly a textbook one, the market’s internal diffusion is comparable to that seen at many major tops, including 2000 and 2007.

Jun 05 2015

Another Retrospective On The Bull…

  • Jun 5, 2015

Up front, we need to remind readers that the Major Trend Index is bullish at 1.08, and our tactical funds remain well-exposed to equities with net exposure of 60-61% (versus a range of between 30% minimum up to a maximum of 70%). That being said, we’re focused on the likelihood of a major defensive portfolio move in the near future, which probably comes as no surprise to Green Book readers (...what with us publishing a prepackaged obituary for the bull market just a month ago).

Apr 08 2015

Spring Fever?

  • Apr 8, 2015

We remain reluctant stock market bulls, with our disciplines supporting net equity exposure (targeting 55%) that “feels” too high based purely on instinct. We think our stay in the overcrowded bull camp will be short-lived.

Mar 06 2015

The Bull Market Turns Six

  • Mar 6, 2015

The bull’s 72-month lifespan now rates as the fourth-longest among all 23 DJIA bull markets since 1900, and the cumulative price gain of +179% ranks sixth.

Mar 06 2015

Still More Bull Market Milestones…

  • Mar 6, 2015

Mario Draghi will commemorate the global bull market’s sixth anniversary on March 9th with the initiation of a QE bond purchase program of 60 billion euros per month. Our own celebration has been subdued by comparison.

Mar 06 2015

Margin Debt Revisited

  • Mar 6, 2015

Stock market Margin Debt enjoyed a brief phase of notoriety when it eclipsed its 2007 high just over a year ago, then it retreated into obscurity. Now it may finally be telling us something.

Feb 06 2015

Canary In The Coal Mine?

  • Feb 6, 2015

The S&P 500 made a cycle high on December 29th, and in early February mounted another assault on that level. Ignoring valuations, the economy, Europe, etc. (not necessarily our recommendation), the most bullish observations we can make about the stock market are: (1) its peak is still recent; and (2) the S&P 500 had significant company at that peak—including the Transportation stocks, Utilities, Russell 2000, S&P 500 Financials, and even the NYSE Daily Advance/Decline. All in all, this action is broad enough that a final top shouldn’t be imminent.

Jan 08 2015

Topping Out… But Patience Required

  • Jan 8, 2015

Weight of the evidence suggests the bull market is in a broad topping process, likely begun in late-July. The duration, however, may be proportionate to the tremendous five-plus year upswing that preceded it.

Jan 08 2015

Two For The Price Of One?

  • Jan 8, 2015

Think the bull market is long in the tooth at almost six years of age? Maybe not.

Jun 06 2014

Story-Telling Time

  • Jun 6, 2014

Great bull markets begin with numbers but end with narratives. The current bull market began with terrific statistics, but the past two years has given way to story-telling that is unimaginative even by Wall Street standards.

Apr 08 2014

U.S. Markets See Uniform Strength, While The World Seems Fractured

  • Apr 8, 2014

Based on the historical percentages, the bull market should have a minimum of four to six months of life left. But the market has a way of throwing sand in the gears when you think you’ve begun to understand its internal mechanics.

Mar 07 2014

Bulling Through The History Books

  • Mar 7, 2014

The Dow Jones Industrials’ bull market gain of +150% is well ahead of the long-term median (+86%) and average (+134%), and places the 2009-to-date move as the sixth-best all time.

Mar 07 2014

The Bull Market Turns Five

  • Mar 7, 2014

The post-2009 stock market upswing now qualifies as only the sixth cyclical bull market since 1900 to last five years or more. But only three of the previous five-year-old bulls lived to see a sixth birthday.

Sep 10 2013

Industry Groups: No Need To Bottom-Fish

  • Sep 10, 2013

Buying global groups with strong price momentum has been a winning strategy. Will it continue?

Aug 07 2013

A Comprehensive Look At The Emerging Markets: Diagnosis And Prognosis

  • Aug 7, 2013

We examine Emerging Markets from both the top-down and bottom-up perspectives as we try to identify where to move and what to expect. We check in on two successful EM thematic group ideas as well.

Jun 07 2013

Summer Doldrums?

  • Jun 7, 2013

Give those who’ve advised investors to “Sell In May” over the years some credit: they’ve never been too specific.

Sep 07 2012

Major Trend Index Fading As “That Time Of Year” Looms

  • Sep 7, 2012

With “That Time Of Year” approaching and the Major Trend Index not too far above the neutral zone, we review nine factors impacting the stock market from a glass-half-empty perspective.

May 04 2012

The Bigger The Bear, The Better The Bull?

  • May 4, 2012

Does a bigger Bear market equate to a bigger Bull market recovery?

 

Apr 04 2012

Stay Bullish

  • Apr 4, 2012

It’s April once again… Are we due for yet another market top? Some perspectives on the possibility of attaining a new all-time market high in the current cyclical bull, and what may drive the upside.

Apr 04 2012

Start Of A New Bond Bear Market Or Not, There Is No Need To Rush

  • Apr 4, 2012

Whether it’s the start of a new bond bear market or not, there’s no need to rush... and why shorting bonds may not be the best idea, even during a bond bear market.

 

Sep 04 2011

Recession Or No Recession? That ISN’T The Question

  • Sep 4, 2011

Doug Ramsey provides an analysis of non-recession related bear markets. Historically, non-recession related markets are shorter in duration than recession induced bear markets, but the decline is essentially the same magnitude.

 

Sep 04 2011

Another Swoon Coming

  • Sep 4, 2011

Several U.S. indexes and world stock markets have already lost 20% or more from recent peaks, satisfying the parameter for a bear market.

 

Aug 04 2011

The Bull Market’s Technical “Book Ends”

  • Aug 4, 2011

The 30-point collapse in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, August 2nd completed a bearish H&S pattern that has been several months in the making.

 

May 04 2011

Sell In May? We Might, If Only Temporarily

  • May 4, 2011

Don’t expect a summer swoon, but stocks may make little progress until fall. Most of our bull market targets discussed in 2009—early 2010 have been achieved with the exception of a return to median bull market peaks based on normalized earnings (only 1.5% away).

Apr 05 2011

Believe It Or Not, New Highs

  • Apr 5, 2011

Steps are falling into place for the U.S. market to climb another 15-20% into 2012.

Apr 05 2011

Bull Market Extension?

  • Apr 5, 2011

VLT has turned up for most market indices. Even though it is still above the zero line, history shows that this signals an extension of the bull market.

 

Mar 04 2011

Two Down… One To Go?

  • Mar 4, 2011

Doug Ramsey highlights the “point of recognition” in this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section. This is the point of maximum market upthrust, the point at which even hardened pessimists become convinced that the economic recovery and bull market are for real.

 

Jan 05 2011

2010: Better Than It Felt

  • Jan 5, 2011

2010 was better than it felt for the equity markets, but while 2011 may be better for the economy, it might not be as strong for the equity markets. Could the bull market be running out of milestones?

Dec 04 2010

A “Quality” Opportunity?

  • Dec 4, 2010

Low quality stocks led out of the past bear market, as typically occurs. Despite being the clear winners from the 2009 lows, it looks like the lower quality stocks can continue to outperform given current valuations and momentum.

 

Nov 04 2010

So Much For “Red October”

  • Nov 4, 2010

Now that the election is over and QE2 in the works, resist the temptation to “sell the news.” We expect to see the market rally through the end of the year. Sentiment still benign and valuations still attractive.