Research.LeutholdGroup

Even after watershed events COVID-19 and MMT, some things never change.

Next year will begin like almost every one of the past dozen years, with economists and strategists expecting bond yields to rise.

Unlike most of those years, though, there are several measures of “cyclical pressures” that would seem to give them a good chance of being right. The best-known among these might be the “Copper/Gold Ratio,” popularized by DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach, which suggests 10-Yr. Treasury yields should be around double their current level (Chart 1).

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