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Jul 07 2020

The Second Wave: No One Seems To Care!

  • Jul 7, 2020

While investors cheer the stock market on to challenge its all-time high, new COVID-19 cases are also making daily records in the U.S. The first wave of the pandemic helped to tank the S&P 500 by nearly 30% in the course of three weeks, while the second wave, now in development, has yet to deter the raging bulls.  

Mar 06 2020

A Real Corona-Crash In Credit

  • Mar 6, 2020

If the U.S. economy falls into recession in the months ahead, it might be the only one in history that will be remembered as having been triggered by a “black swan.”

Mar 06 2020

Back Breaker?

  • Mar 6, 2020

With the wavering state of consumer and business confidence, even a modest stock market correction of 8-10% might deliver the fatal blow to confidence—and therefore to the U.S. economic expansion.

Mar 02 2020

Interim Memo

  • Mar 2, 2020

The coronavirus epidemic/pandemic is getting the bulk of the blame for the sudden collapse in U.S. equities, and certainly qualifies as one of the few “black swans” seen in modern market history. We do not think the ultimate path of the coronavirus contagion can be analyzed at this point, and medical experts foresee possible outcomes ranging from a serious epidemic to a short burst of illness that fades with the summer weather.