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Cyclical Peak

Oct 05 2019

More Yield Curve Musings

  • Oct 5, 2019

The U.S. yield curve inversion has lasted long enough that even a few economic optimists now concede it will ultimately prove significant.

Dec 07 2018

Bull Pause, Or Bear Paws?

  • Dec 7, 2018

The old maxim says that when the bears have Thanksgiving, the bulls have Christmas.

Nov 06 2015

To Play The Rally, Or Not To Play?

  • Nov 6, 2015

Question: What will you do if the Major Trend Index returns to its bullish zone?

Jul 08 2014

All Together Now!

  • Jul 8, 2014

Our Bull Market Confirmation Indicator is tallying a healthy reading. This is intermediate-term bullish, and suggests that a final bull market top should be a minimum of four to six months away.

Apr 08 2014

Time For A Spring Shower?

  • Apr 8, 2014

The stock market staged a two-day bearish reversal beginning a few hours after the release of the March employment report, a decline that could —based on the bearish status of a single MTI category (Attitudinal)—carry further before it is finished. But with the S&P 500 (and many other U.S. equity indexes) recording a bull market high as recently as April 2, it’s too early to argue the market top is “in.”

Jan 08 2014

The Economy In 2014: Solid But Unspectacular

  • Jan 8, 2014

This year should be a solid but unspectacular one for the U.S. economy, with real GDP growth of about +2.5%. We expect the Consumer Price Index to rise just 1.5%. Unemployment should continue to fall.

Jun 07 2013

The Rolling Stock Market Top Of 2013 (… And 2011, 2010, And 2009)

  • Jun 7, 2013

We’ve frequently mentioned the two-faced nature of thematic leadership during the current bull market. Filtering out the minor swings, Phase One lasted from March 2009 through February 2011 and was dominated by low quality, high beta and cyclical stocks.

Jun 07 2013

Stocks And The Economy

  • Jun 7, 2013

We’ve written before about retail investors’ tendency to “conflate” stock market action with movements in the underlying economy. Misunderstanding this interrelationship generally causes the public to liquidate stocks when the economy is weak, only to ultimately buy them back when the economic recovery is obvious to all.

Nov 03 1985

Inside the Stock Market

  • Nov 3, 1985

Our Major Trend Index is deteriorating. Most disturbing has been the continued deterioration in this work over the last few weeks as the overall market has seemingly improved. This is not typical.