Dow Transports
Market Odds For The Second Half
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With the halfway point of 2023 two weeks away, the S&P 500 has broken out to a 12-month high. The index has accomplished that feat 32 times during the month of June—or exactly one-third of all cases measured back to 1928.
The Trend Is A Bit Less Friendly
The MTI’s move to its Negative zone with the October 1st reading was driven by a few trend breakdowns—ones that could well reverse in short order. Recognizing the volatility of these signals (and perhaps having been “conditioned” by the one-way market of the last 18 months), we opted for just a minor asset allocation adjustment.
Testing The Transports
A new market high that is not confirmed by the stocks of companies that “move the goods” is a warning signal. We reviewed the Transports’ action in all years the S&P 500 accomplished a 12-month high during the month of July, like it did this year.
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