Research.LeutholdGroup

This Leuthold Refresh updates our Factor Tilt analysis, an ongoing process to evaluate the attractiveness of commonly accepted investment styles. Factors are investment characteristics that have historically produced excess risk-adjusted returns, but relative results fluctuate over time.

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Factor investing has gained wide popularity in recent years, enabled by a proliferation of smart-beta ETFs coming to market, which opened new opportunities for tactical investors. In 2018, we launched our Factor Tilt ETF strategy, and here we discuss how we’re now enhancing it by adding Seasonal Cyclicality to our analytical toolbox for evaluating factor conditions.

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Factor analysis is a point of emphasis in Leuthold’s tactical research activities, and this note summarizes our Factor Tilt outlook going into the fourth quarter. Factors are return drivers such as Value, Momentum, and Quality, and research has found that factor results vary over time—but that does not mean they are random.

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