Research.LeutholdGroup

In the last few months, we’ve warned that Wall Street’s favorite security—the Federal Reserve Put—has been at least temporarily replaced by a novel derivative with a less favorable risk/reward profile: the short Fed call.

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Like Gonzaga in the NCAA basketball tournament, stock market bulls are set for their first real test in a very long time.

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In late January, the S&P 500 was down so much (almost 10%!) that it revived talk of investors’ favorite “safe” security. No, not T-bills—and not even Amazon or Apple common stock—but the Fed “put.” Years ago, we called it the “hypothetical” Fed put. But by now, we’re believers.

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