Forecaster
A 2023 Forecast… From 1875!
Our grandmother mailed us the accompanying clipping from a Minneapolis newspaper when we entered the investment business in 1990—just as she’d done for our uncle when he became a securities analyst 20 years earlier.
Is A Strengthening Dollar A Form Of Policy Tightening?
Executive summary (for those leaving early for the holiday weekend): No.
We’ve found no reliable relationship between swings in the U.S. Dollar and subsequent variations in U.S. economic growth.
Is The “Star” Aligned For 2019?
For those who remain skeptical that more stock market troubles lay ahead, we’ve supplemented the MTI and our other market tools with something truly authoritative: Evidence from a gossip column in a 1958 issue The Minneapolis Star!
Stocks And The Economy
The stock market is often maligned as a poor economic forecaster, and it’s true the market has predicted several more recessions than have actually occurred.
Stocks And The Dismal Science
Has recent Fed experimentation compromised the stock market’s “social function” as an economic forecasting tool?
Worrying About 2019 - A Longer Term Forecast
Forecast for 2019 (yes that’s 8 years away) is for S&P 500 to reach 1974 (an +8.0% ACR). Projection based simply on earnings growth and normalized P/E ratios.
View From The North Country
In our January book, we stated this issue would include The Leuthold Group's "Fearless Forecasts", frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy that parody conventional economic and market predictions.
Fearless Forecasts
This is this publication’s annual absurd outrageous (and sometimes correct) prognostications. Don’t confuse these with the more traditional economic and market predictions. They are frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy, and some have become reality. New readers should be alerted that some of these border on being “sick” and you may be offended.
View from the North Country
Fearless Forecasts, our Annual feature of whimsical, but sometimes accurate prediction of coming events. Not for stuffy or squeamish readers.
View from the North Country
1983 Economic and Market Predictions: Economy has bottomed. Rebound to be somewhat stronger than most expect, with earnings up 20%-25% from 1982 depressed levels. Unemployment and T-Bond rates seen at 8.5% and stock market as high as 1250. Last year’s predictions reviewed.