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Aug 30 2019

Is A Strengthening Dollar A Form Of Policy Tightening?

  • Aug 30, 2019

Executive summary (for those leaving early for the holiday weekend): No.

We’ve found no reliable relationship between swings in the U.S. Dollar and subsequent variations in U.S. economic growth.

Jan 08 2019

Is The “Star” Aligned For 2019?

  • Jan 8, 2019

For those who remain skeptical that more stock market troubles lay ahead, we’ve supplemented the MTI and our other market tools with something truly authoritative: Evidence from a gossip column in a 1958 issue The Minneapolis Star!

Oct 06 2017

Stocks And The Economy

  • Oct 6, 2017

The stock market is often maligned as a poor economic forecaster, and it’s true the market has predicted several more recessions than have actually occurred.

Dec 06 2013

Stocks And The Dismal Science

  • Dec 6, 2013

Has recent Fed experimentation compromised the stock market’s “social function” as an economic forecasting tool?

Jan 05 2012

Worrying About 2019 - A Longer Term Forecast

  • Jan 5, 2012

Forecast for 2019 (yes that’s 8 years away) is for S&P 500 to reach 1974 (an +8.0% ACR). Projection based simply on earnings growth and normalized P/E ratios.


Feb 05 1992

View From The North Country

  • Feb 5, 1992

In our January book, we stated this issue would include The Leuthold Group's "Fearless Forecasts", frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy that parody conventional economic and market predictions.

Feb 05 1985

Fearless Forecasts

  • Feb 5, 1985

This is this publication’s annual absurd outrageous (and sometimes correct) prognostications. Don’t confuse these with the more traditional economic and market predictions. They are frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy, and some have become reality. New readers should be alerted that some of these border on being “sick” and you may be offended.

Feb 04 1983

View from the North Country

  • Feb 4, 1983

Fearless Forecasts, our Annual feature of whimsical, but sometimes accurate prediction of coming events. Not for stuffy or squeamish readers.

Jan 06 1983

View from the North Country

  • Jan 6, 1983

1983 Economic and Market Predictions: Economy has bottomed. Rebound to be somewhat stronger than most expect, with earnings up 20%-25% from 1982 depressed levels. Unemployment and T-Bond rates seen at 8.5% and stock market as high as 1250. Last year’s predictions reviewed.