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Mar 07 2023

Rankings At The Top Offer Diversified Mix

  • Mar 7, 2023

Energy remains the top-rated sector, but Information Technology, Communication Services, and Financials follow closely behind. These offer a diverse mix of commodity, growth, and cyclical options.

May 07 2021

Housing-Related Groups Top The Rankings

  • May 7, 2021

Housing-related groups have catapulted to the very top of our rankings. Several of these are among the top-ten performers of our 120-group universe. Despite the strong returns for these industries, our GS Scores indicate that this theme has even more room to run.

Feb 05 2021

Homebuilding Holds Steady At The Top Of GS Scores

  • Feb 5, 2021

As new home sales skyrocket alongside plummeting mortgage rates, we revisit the historical relationship between Homebuilding stock returns and industry-specific factors that impact housing affordability and homebuilders’ bottom lines.

Jun 05 2020

Pockets Of Strength Among Discretionary Industries

  • Jun 5, 2020

A brief overview of two (very different) Attractively-rated Discretionary groups that are longstanding SI portfolio holdings that have managed to maintain their “Attractiveness” throughout the tumult.

Mar 06 2020

Group Ideas For Tumultuous Times

  • Mar 6, 2020

The economic outlook has turned increasingly cautionary, investors are on edge, and the search for yield persists. Because the typical defensive/high-yielding plays are generally both expensive and unappealing in our group work, we highlight several less conventional groups that may be poised to outperform.

Oct 04 2019

Industry Groups Topping The Charts In 2019

  • Oct 4, 2019

The groups we examine here are particularly interesting because they are a diversified mix across sectors with varying macro-factor relationships and risk profiles. They have scored well for a long period of time and have been long-term positions in our SI portfolio.

Jun 07 2019

Homebuilding Stocks Take Flight

  • Jun 7, 2019

Homebuilding rose to rank #1 among our universe in our latest monthly Group Selection (GS) Scores. The industry has staged an impressive turnaround, beginning in October 2018, with strong returns outpacing the S&P 500 by more than 2.5x YTD. 

Jan 06 2018

Consumer Discretionary Back On Top

  • Jan 6, 2018

Of the 110 industries in our framework, the top seven are all Consumer Discretionary.

Jun 07 2017

Highlighted Attractive Groups

  • Jun 7, 2017

Home Entertainment Software, Managed Health Care, and Specialized Consumer Services are among the month’s intriguing opportunities based on the current Group Selection (GS) Scores.

Mar 07 2017

Highlighted Attractive Groups

  • Mar 7, 2017

Automobile Manufacturers, Health Care Distributors, and Homebuilding appear to be solid opportunities based on the current Group Selection Scores.

Sep 08 2016

Housing Theme Framed Among Top GS Scores

  • Sep 8, 2016

Attractive-rated groups include Building Products, Homebuilding, and Household Durables—these three groups possess similar industry drivers and thus exhibit highly-correlated stock returns.

Aug 05 2016

Highlighted Attractive Groups

  • Aug 5, 2016

We examine the factor category strength behind Food Retail & Distributors, Homebuilding, and Water Utilities.

Feb 05 2016

Homebuilding Group Downgraded And Sold

  • Feb 5, 2016

What initially looked promising fell apart fairly quickly

Aug 07 2015

Homebuilding, More Than Just Curb Appeal?

  • Aug 7, 2015

While this Consumer Discretionary group has not experienced six-plus-years of market outperformance, we think it may be poised for a late-game bounce. An overall lack of housing options may be just what this industry needs to give it a long-awaited boost.

Jun 05 2015

Housing: Curb Your Enthusiasm

  • Jun 5, 2015

Despite record low mortgage rates and pressure to re-loosen down payment and lending requirements, single family housing starts have yet to recover to levels consistent with even the average recession trough.

Jan 08 2014

The Dreams & Nightmares Of 2013

  • Jan 8, 2014

For 25 years we’ve tracked hypothetical industry group portfolios comprised of the previous year’s “Dreams” (20 best performers) and “Nightmares” (20 worst performers).

Oct 08 2013

Housing: Just Like The Bubbles Before It

  • Oct 8, 2013

Sectors that become the object of obsession during one economic cycle tend to remain cyclically depressed in the following one.

Aug 07 2013

Handicapping The High In Housing

  • Aug 7, 2013

Today it seems taken for granted that the great housing meltdown of 2006-2010 was sufficient to purge the last decade’s excesses, and that housing can now be relied upon as one of the drivers of a slow but elongated U.S. economic expansion.

Nov 05 2011

Rates Too High For A Housing Rebound?

  • Nov 5, 2011

Are mortgage rates still too high for a rebound when looking at real mortgage rates?

Feb 02 2010

What Keeps Us Up At Night

  • Feb 2, 2010

We consider it incredible that most of the leading economic indicators have staged such traditional V-shaped rebounds with virtually no boost from the housing sector.

Apr 04 2009

A Ray Of Hope For Housing

  • Apr 4, 2009

If the November lows in the Homebuilders holds, based on the leading relationship between stocks and starts, an upturn in housing starts (not the broader economy) should be imminent.

Mar 05 2008

Housing Fallout: Here’s A “Window” That Isn’t Broken Or Boarded Up...

  • Mar 5, 2008

Following patterns of past burst bubbles, Homebuilders seem poised to rally.


Dec 05 2007

A Discount Shopping Guide To Banks And Homebuilders

  • Dec 5, 2007

With a heavily promotional holiday shopping season underway, we feel compelled to join the fray by looking at the big markdowns in U.S. homebuilding and bank stocks.

Nov 05 2007

Homebuilders.....Watching The “Window”

  • Nov 5, 2007

Not all gloom and doom this month...Homebuilders approaching window where past busted bubbles have bounced.

Sep 05 2007

Housing: Still Too Early To Invest (Or To Build)

  • Sep 5, 2007

It’s still too early, but at some point in the next 6 to 18 months, going long the homebuilders will probably become the single most contrarian—and potentially highly profitable—thing to do.  But before that happens, we expect to see more blood in the streets.

Aug 05 2006

The Homebuilding Group – Value Play Or Value Trap?

  • Aug 5, 2006

Everybody sure hates the Homebuilders. However, contrarians should take note of this month’s analysis of earnings prospects, insider selling/buying, and the outlook for future housing starts. Now is not the time to be bottom fishing here.

Dec 04 2002

Answering Client Questions

  • Dec 4, 2002

Many of the questions in this month’s issue came from November’s client meetings in San Francisco.

Jan 07 1986

Time To Look At Shelter Stocks?

  • Jan 7, 1986

Several months ago Pulte Homes was added to our model as a "special situation" anticipating the possibility of a future broader move into the shelter area.