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Inverted Yield Curve

Jul 08 2023

Maximum Inversion?

  • Jul 8, 2023

Factoring in both the duration and depth of the existing yield-curve inversion, it is considered more severe than all predecessors since the 1960s. Even Duke University yield-curve guru, Campbell Harvey, abandoned his January forecast that a recession would be avoided.

Feb 07 2023

1966-67: When The Yield Curve “Failed”

  • Feb 7, 2023

Given the tendency of economists and strategists to dismiss the message of an inverted yield curve, it’s surprising there’s been no scrutiny of the “dog that didn’t bark”—the inversion of 1966. That’s the last time an inverted curve did not lead to a recession.