Inverted Yield Curve
Jul
08
2023
Maximum Inversion?
Factoring in both the duration and depth of the existing yield-curve inversion, it is considered more severe than all predecessors since the 1960s. Even Duke University yield-curve guru, Campbell Harvey, abandoned his January forecast that a recession would be avoided.
Feb
07
2023
1966-67: When The Yield Curve “Failed”
Given the tendency of economists and strategists to dismiss the message of an inverted yield curve, it’s surprising there’s been no scrutiny of the “dog that didn’t bark”—the inversion of 1966. That’s the last time an inverted curve did not lead to a recession.