Late Cycle Market
May
07
2019
Divergence, Danger, And Delusion
The U.S. economy and blue chips have shrugged off the risk of the worst trade war since 1930’s Smoot-Hawley Act, while comparatively few stocks on either the NASDAQ or the NYSE have broken out to 52-week highs. There’s also the troubling talk of the Fed having tamed “the cycle.” Should investors bet on a potentially wild (but narrower) final melt-up over the next 6-12 months? We don’t like the odds.
Mar
07
2019
Unemployment And The Point Of No Return
We’ve done extensive work on the yield curve, but until now had entirely overlooked an employment-based recession indicator that’s lately come into focus.
Aug
07
2015
Value, Momentum, And The Stock Market Cycle
Conventional measures of market action, like breadth and industry leadership, point to the formation of a bull market top. Divergences abound.