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Late Cycle Market

May 07 2019

Divergence, Danger, And Delusion

  • May 7, 2019

The U.S. economy and blue chips have shrugged off the risk of the worst trade war since 1930’s Smoot-Hawley Act, while comparatively few stocks on either the NASDAQ or the NYSE have broken out to 52-week highs. There’s also the troubling talk of the Fed having tamed “the cycle.” Should investors bet on a potentially wild (but narrower) final melt-up over the next 6-12 months? We don’t like the odds.

Mar 07 2019

Unemployment And The Point Of No Return

  • Mar 7, 2019

We’ve done extensive work on the yield curve, but until now had entirely overlooked an employment-based recession indicator that’s lately come into focus.

Aug 07 2015

Value, Momentum, And The Stock Market Cycle

  • Aug 7, 2015

Conventional measures of market action, like breadth and industry leadership, point to the formation of a bull market top. Divergences abound.