Research.LeutholdGroup

Investors have soured on Industrial Metals equities, likely based on the belief that the prices of the underlying physical metals have stopped going up.

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Industrial Metal equities far outpaced both the S&P 500 (up 3.5%) and our Leuthold Materials Sector Index (up 7.0%).

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The weakness in metal equities this month was, in our opinion, mainly driven by a healthy dose of profit taking.

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The Industrial Metals equity group was up a whopping 11.7% in September versus a 0.7% gain for the S&P 500 and a 4.0% gain for the Leuthold Materials Sector.

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The YTD performance of the Industrial Metals equity group is particularly impressive when you consider that the group was down 13.7% through mid-May.

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Metal equities broke out above their trendline near the end of May, and have continued to rally since.

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We may be nearing a crossroads with our long-term holding in the Industrial Metals equities group.

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The Industrial Metals equities group has been very disappointing over the past three months, especially given May’s rally in the broad equity market.

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The Industrial Metals equity group continued to sell off in April, dropping 10.5% on the heels of –6.1% return in March.

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Profit taking certainly played a large part in the past month’s sell-off. Another key factor was that rising U.S. interest rates in March prompted a rebound in the U.S. dollar against major currencies.

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We had speculated last month that both metal equities and physical metals were primed for a bounce, but we must admit we were surprised by the size of the bounce, particularly in the metal equities.

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If this is indeed just another technical sell-off, now could be a great time to add to both metals shares and physical metals exposure.

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Given the mostly positive performance in physical metals, profit taking was the likely culprit in pushing metal shares lower in December.

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Metals stocks quickly made back October’s losses, and more, during the November rally.  

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Physical metals experienced a deep sell-off on Wednesday Oct. 13th.  It was one of the largest single day drops ever in the base metals markets, prompting London metals traders to dub the day “Black Wednesday.”

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Metals were a great place to be in the month of September, especially the latter part of the month.

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The strong relative performance in Industrial Metals shares over the past four months provides evidence that investors are beginning to buy into the sustainability of the current uptrend in metals prices.

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The strong relative performance in Industrial Metals shares over the past three months leads us to believe that investors are beginning to buy into the sustainability of the current uptrend in metals prices.

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The Industrial Metals group, our second largest Select Industries portfolio group holding, continued to rally in June.

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Industrial Metals group had nice rally after big decline in April. Early May increase in this portfolio group holding was very timely.

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